Thread by @muradbanaji

Chapter 1 of the Economic Survey 2020-21 (indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/): a glowing report on the govt's handling of the COVID crisis, and a case study in what happens when science is abandoned for propaganda. Page after page of spin and dishonesty, but here's just one example... 1/5

...These two pictures show "actual vs. expected" cases and deaths for different states. Bihar does well (green) and Chhattisgarh does badly (red). Why? Because Bihar has fewer recorded COVID cases and deaths than "expected", and Chhattisgarh more than "expected". But... 2/5

I'd earlier examined data from Bihar and Chhattisgarh quite carefully for a piece in The Wire Science - measured cases, recorded deaths and, crucially, serosurvey data. The basic conclusions of this analysis were simple. In the surveyed districts... 3/5
science.thewire.in/health/bihar-c…

...in Chhattisgarh (CH) a much smaller % had been infected than in Bihar (BH). But CH had picked up over 6% of its infections, while BH had picked up just 0.7%. CH had many more deaths - no surprise as BH was failing to identify its COVID infections & presumably also deaths. 4/5

In short, Chhattisgarh is shamed in Central govt propaganda for doing a decent job of monitoring its COVID epidemic, while Bihar is rewarded for its failure to do so. A simple message to state governments - don't spoil the party with your data. 5/5