Just read Ark Invest's Big Ideas 2021 report.
A tweet for each idea (big numbers coming) π
1/ Deep learning to create $30T of market value by 2037
β’ Automated code writing
β’ AI that "understands" language (GPT-3)
β’ Big Tech spends billions on AI chips, everyone benefits
A tweet for each idea (big numbers coming) π
1/ Deep learning to create $30T of market value by 2037
β’ Automated code writing
β’ AI that "understands" language (GPT-3)
β’ Big Tech spends billions on AI chips, everyone benefits
2/ Data centres will be totally transformed
β’ Intel -- powers 90% of data centres -- has fallen behind
β’ Next-gen data centres/PCs will run on ARM standard
β’ GPUs (workhorse for AI) hits run rate of $41B in 2030
β’ Intel -- powers 90% of data centres -- has fallen behind
β’ Next-gen data centres/PCs will run on ARM standard
β’ GPUs (workhorse for AI) hits run rate of $41B in 2030
3/ Virtual world revenue hits $390B by 2025 (>2x today)
β’ Video game monetization shifting to in-app purchases
β’ Games are 3rd places (people spend 90m a day gaming in 2025)
β’ AR market (Snap, FB, Apple) set to explode
β’ Cost of VR (visual immersion) plummeting
β’ Video game monetization shifting to in-app purchases
β’ Games are 3rd places (people spend 90m a day gaming in 2025)
β’ AR market (Snap, FB, Apple) set to explode
β’ Cost of VR (visual immersion) plummeting
4/ Digital wallets a $4.6T opportunity
β’ In US, digital wallets surpassing bank account holders
β’ Digital wallet CAC lower than banks
β’ Fully featured digital wallet (ecomm, payments, insurance, credit, brokerage) worth $20k/user
β’ 230m Americans x $20k/user = $4.6T
β’ In US, digital wallets surpassing bank account holders
β’ Digital wallet CAC lower than banks
β’ Fully featured digital wallet (ecomm, payments, insurance, credit, brokerage) worth $20k/user
β’ 230m Americans x $20k/user = $4.6T
5/ #Bitcoin increases by +$40k if S&P 500 companies put 1% of their balance sheet cash to BTC
β’ Square and Microstrategy set the precedent
β’ If S&P 500 companies make 10% of balance sheet cash, BTC rises by +$400k
β’ Square and Microstrategy set the precedent
β’ If S&P 500 companies make 10% of balance sheet cash, BTC rises by +$400k
6/ Mainstreaming of BTC will make it worth $1-5T
β’ BTC trading volume approaching large cap stocks
β’ Institutions have options to access BTC (e.g., CME futures)
β’ If institutional money (HNW, Pensions, SWF, Insurance) allocate 2.5%-6.5% to BTC, its price could rise $200k-500k
β’ BTC trading volume approaching large cap stocks
β’ Institutions have options to access BTC (e.g., CME futures)
β’ If institutional money (HNW, Pensions, SWF, Insurance) allocate 2.5%-6.5% to BTC, its price could rise $200k-500k
7/ EV sales will explode 20x: 2m (today) to 40m (2025)
β’ Total like-for-like EV ownership fell below Toyota Camry in 2019 (the sticker price will do same by 2025)
β’ "cell-to-vehicle" battery designs will increase volume density by 50% and further drop costs
β’ Total like-for-like EV ownership fell below Toyota Camry in 2019 (the sticker price will do same by 2025)
β’ "cell-to-vehicle" battery designs will increase volume density by 50% and further drop costs
8/ Automation adds 5% (~$1.2T) to US GDP in next 5yrs
β’ Rate of automation in next 5yrs = past 25yrs
β’ Industrial robot demands has hit an inflection point (willing to pay upfront cost for automation)
β’ More automation = higher productivity = higher wages = lower prices
β’ Rate of automation in next 5yrs = past 25yrs
β’ Industrial robot demands has hit an inflection point (willing to pay upfront cost for automation)
β’ More automation = higher productivity = higher wages = lower prices
9/ Autonomous ride-hailing profits $1T per year by 2030
β’ Ride hailing already $150B industry
β’ Improvements in AV make economics of robotaxis work
β’ Cost per mile of personally owned vehicle plummeting ($1.70 on a horse, 1871 vs. $0.25 for AV, 2025)
β’ Ride hailing already $150B industry
β’ Improvements in AV make economics of robotaxis work
β’ Cost per mile of personally owned vehicle plummeting ($1.70 on a horse, 1871 vs. $0.25 for AV, 2025)
10/ Drone drastically reduce transportation costs
β’ Revenue by 2030: $275B (delivery), $50B (hardware sales), $12B (mapping)
β’ Cost 10-mile drone delivery (battery price π», AI πΌ for autonomous flight)
β’ Drones to be cheaper than cars, trucks, bike courier
β’ Revenue by 2030: $275B (delivery), $50B (hardware sales), $12B (mapping)
β’ Cost 10-mile drone delivery (battery price π», AI πΌ for autonomous flight)
β’ Drones to be cheaper than cars, trucks, bike courier
11/ Orbital space hit $370B annually
β’ Global connectivity via satellites (provide internet for other 50% of population)
β’ Hypersonic point-to-point travel (turn 10hr+ flights into 2-3hr flights)
β’ Re-usable rocket prices dropping (= more satellites)
β’ Global connectivity via satellites (provide internet for other 50% of population)
β’ Hypersonic point-to-point travel (turn 10hr+ flights into 2-3hr flights)
β’ Re-usable rocket prices dropping (= more satellites)
12/ 3D printing worth $120B by 2025
β’ Collapses time from design to production
β’ Shifts power to designers
β’ Reduces supply chain complexity
β’ Penetration levels: 50% in prototypes (market potential = $12.5B), 4% in molds/tools ($30B), 1% in end-use parts ($490B)
β’ Collapses time from design to production
β’ Shifts power to designers
β’ Reduces supply chain complexity
β’ Penetration levels: 50% in prototypes (market potential = $12.5B), 4% in molds/tools ($30B), 1% in end-use parts ($490B)
13/ Next-gen DNA sequencing worth $25B in 2025
β’ Shift from short-read (SRS) to long-read DNA sequencing (LRS) powers genomics revolution
β’ Expanded toolkit gives richer view into biology
β’ Used to be trade-off between accuracy (SRS) to comprehensiveness (LRS)...no more
β’ Shift from short-read (SRS) to long-read DNA sequencing (LRS) powers genomics revolution
β’ Expanded toolkit gives richer view into biology
β’ Used to be trade-off between accuracy (SRS) to comprehensiveness (LRS)...no more
14/ Liquid Biopsies to avert 66k cancer deaths per year
β’ ML-power DNA sequencing will allow liquid biopsies that can find cancer early (before solid tumor stage)
β’ Multi-cancer screening prices dropping
β’ Could prevent 66k deaths a year = 1.4m human life years
β’ ML-power DNA sequencing will allow liquid biopsies that can find cancer early (before solid tumor stage)
β’ Multi-cancer screening prices dropping
β’ Could prevent 66k deaths a year = 1.4m human life years
15/ TAM for oncology gene therapy rise 20x to $250B+
β’ This slide made no sense to me but here it is: "ARK Estimates That Allogeneic.
Cells And Cellular Immunotherapies Could
Create $250 Billion In Incremental Revenues."
β’ This slide made no sense to me but here it is: "ARK Estimates That Allogeneic.
Cells And Cellular Immunotherapies Could
Create $250 Billion In Incremental Revenues."
16/ Smash that FOLLOW for hot biz takes and lots of memes.
Source: research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Downloβ¦
Source: research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Downloβ¦
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