Some further information regarding the "Zima-20" ("Winter-20") command staff exercises, which allegedly resulted in a defeat for Polish forces during a simulated (war-gamed) Russian attack 1/
The official website of the President of Poland (27 Jan) states that 'Several thousand officers participated in the exercise "ZIMA-20", whose scenarios and details are secret, as well as political factors.' translate.google.com/translate?sl=p…
".. Yesterday, the Minister was with me and we talked about some of the first observations that come to mind as a result of this - where, for example, the equipment of our armed forces needs to be supplemented, where procedures will need to be improved." 4/
"I expect recommendations from the Chief of the General Staff, as well as from the Minister, in this respect - where should we make changes and additions. I think this exercise is a very good first lesson for us that allows us to revise and develop some new elements." 5/
"I hope that these exercises will take place more often, because they are very much needed. The emotions that accompanied this exercise, the decisions that had to be made - of extraordinary importance, fortunately made only theoretically - have .." 6/
"already shown how much it is necessary to practice, train, and get used to a certain mode of action and cooperation. ... It all worked out. It is very good that there are conclusions from the exercise; it is very good that we will be able, as I said, to make some adjustments" 7/
'Something bad happened at the top of the Polish army. Although the course of the recent great Winter-20 staff exercises is officially classified, it quickly ceased to be. Extremely extensive leaks indicate that they were not only about training the defense of Poland. ..' 9/
'This is a war for the most important stool in the Polish army, waged in an extremely dirty manner.' 10/
'Gazeta_pl obtained similar information from two sources. In this recent virtual war, the Russians broke the Polish army and reached the outskirts of Warsaw in four days. ..' 11/
'Our troops suffered catastrophic losses and were not even able to organize an effective defense on the Vistula line. The Russians could drive further west. This may sound alarming, but it doesn't have to be.' 12/
'First, it is not clear what the conditions for the exercise were. There is no doubt that even a military genius will not change the fact that the Polish army has no chance in an open confrontation with the armed forces of Russia. ..' 13/
'Too large disproportion of potentials. Fortunately, a scenario in which Poland has to fight alone with all the forces of the Russian Western Military District is very unlikely at present.' 14/
'Secondly, exercises are also about losing them and drawing conclusions from it. One of the diseases afflicting the Polish army is such "setting" of all exercises and maneuvers so that they are always successful and that success can be reported.' 15/
'So is it wrong in principle that Poland was beaten during the virtual battle of Winter-20? In such a situation, the key is to analyze the causes of failure and draw the right conclusions from it. So that a similar scenario is not repeated in reality.' 16/
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Regarding the controversial "Zima-20" ("Winter-20") Polish command staff war-gaming exercises that allegedly resulted in a simulated defeat of Polish Armed Forces in 5 days: Lot of folks focussing on mass (opposing force, OPFOR) but overlooking kinetics (reaction rates). 1/
Russia has intrinsic element of surprise. Assuming that a) NATO intel (remote sensing, SIGINT etc) has picked up on a degree of preparations; b) some degree of Russian field exerices are planned as cover; and c) Poland-NATO/US alert level is raised a notch. 2/
Nevertheless, a sudden switch to offensive mode will be a shock. Institutional inertia both in Poland and across NATO gives Russia a vital 96-hour (4 days) window to cross the border and seize/hold strategic locations & overwhelm defensive units before they can be reinforced. 3/
The military exercises "Winter-20" ended in disaster and a complete disaster. The simulation showed that after five days the war was lost and the Polish army ceased to exist, Interia informs. 2/
The simulations took into account new weapons systems ordered by Poland - although not yet delivered
The fierce defense of the east of Poland resulted in the destruction of the units there and huge losses 3/
"The programme for government in June 2020 made it clear that any commission would not critically examine Ireland’s ambiguous policy of non-membership of military alliances or neutrality so that is firmly off the table for discussion by the group." #CoDFrte.ie/brainstorm/202…
"By international standards, the levels of equipment and modernisation of the Irish Defence Forces are below international norms. The Irish air corps have no radar system to monitor Irish airspace and no fast aircraft to police it (for example, both Finland and Uruguay do).."
"The Irish navy have no guided missiles, torpedoes or ... sophisticated ship protection systems, but instead are austerely equipped as a coastguard. The Irish army have no tanks, a small number of lightly armed and protected vehicles, and an ageing collection of artillery pieces"
What about the law of unintended consequences, black swan events and deep unertainty?
1. Controlled (forced?) migration ("retreat") from rural areas to megacities is likely to create numerous conflicts. In many senses it already is.
2/
2. Nuclear energy use may be relatively "safe" but what about nuclear waste and nuclear proliferation risks?
3. Geoengineering solutions, such as pumping sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, are by definition large-scale, with no emergency 'exit' option or 'reverse gear'.
3/