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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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3 Feb, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Globally, daily new cases have declined since mid-January. 7-day average 525,000 is now the lowest since early November.

Yesterday 382,036 cases.
Denmark continues to improve.

Yesterday 377 new cases, 1/12 of peak 4,500 mid-December. Test positivity also very low at 0.8%. Halving time is 11 days. At this rate, much of Denmark could be at or near zero in a month! Faster if Green Zones are used.
In late-December, Denmark and US had comparable per capita case rates, now 1 in 6. Denmark is showing the kind of case reduction possible when stronger action is taken.
Yesterday Canada reported 3,695 cases, down from peak ~9,000.

Poll results suggest Canadians support recent travel restrictions.

Peru was one of hardest-hit countries in the world in 2020, now has new resurgence.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Feb
Israel extends their lockdown by at least 5-days, and will decide on Wednesday if they will extend it further.

Lifting of restrictions should be based on case numbers, not arbitrary dates. Reopening early likely means lockdown #4 coming soon.

timesofisrael.com/ministers-meet…
Western Australia reported 0 cases of community transmission yesterday. A “donut day” on their first day of their 5-day lockdown. Great news!

No other out-of-quarantine cases in all of Australia
Nearly half of the total covid deaths in Portugal occured in January. Neighboring countries offer help to relieve overflowing hospitals.

Case rates in Portugal remain high, but may be showing signs of slowing. Yesterday they reported 9,498 cases.

nypost.com/2021/02/01/por…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Feb
One Case, Total Lockdown: Australia’s Lessons for a Pandemic World

"The country’s short, sharp responses have repeatedly subdued the virus and allowed a return to near normalcy. Now its model is being applied to Perth, its fourth-largest city.

1/
nytimes.com/2021/02/01/wor…
"One case. One young security guard at a quarantine hotel who tested positive for the coronavirus and experienced minor symptoms.

"That was all it took for Perth, Australia’s fourth-largest city, to snap into a complete lockdown on Sunday.

2/
"One case and now two million people are staying home for at least the next five days. One case and now the top state leader, Mark McGowan, who is facing an election next month, is calling on his constituents to sacrifice for each other and the nation.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Feb
Lithuania’s containment efforts are paying off. Yesterday they reported 858 new cases, down from a peak of nearly 3,000.

After their first outbreak, they attempted to keep cases low rather than going for zero. Let’s hope they go for zero to open safely.
Guam and the US Virgin Islands have both reported low case rates recently, both less than 10 per day. In total, the two regions have reported 154 covid deaths.
Alaska progress:
Daily cases down almost to ⅕ peak
Hospitalizations down to ¼ peak

Most in Anchorage, many regions very close to zero. A green zone exit strategy, like Australia, would treat them well.
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
31 Jan
UK reports progress:

Yesterday they reported 29,145 cases, down to ½ of peak! Daily deaths are still near peak, consistent with higher fatality rate for UK B117 variant, but are beginning to decline.
Portugal continues rapid increase of both cases and deaths. Yesterday reported 13,200 new cases and 278 deaths.

Per capita case rates are the highest in the world.
Good news in Ireland! Ireland has shown that cases can be turned around quickly if strong precautions are put into place. Now almost ⅕ of peak.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

"Are you tired of COVID?

"I fucking am.

1/
via @TheTyee thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"And contrary to what our politicians say, there is only one way to deal with a rapidly mutating virus that demonstrates the real power of exponential growth: Go hard. Act early. And go to zero.

2/
"Last January, one strain of this novel virus began its assured global conquest, and since then our leaders have hardly learned a goddamn thing.

"So yes, I am angry, and I will not disguise my frustration with comfortable or polite language.

3/
Read 51 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
As many countries..struggle with a third wave..all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic..a proposal being widely discussed in Germany..is a “No-COVID strategy”

The case for No-COVID thelancet.com/journals/lance…
"There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones. First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero. Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test,

2/
.trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions. Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically. Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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