Thread by @fascinatorfun

🦠19202 new cases but they now count LFT test positives in this number without PCR confirmation
More later

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1322 (28 day cut off deaths). 1506 (60 day, +ve test & Covid on death certificate)

⚰️💔⚰️💔 126,755 Covid deaths in total - NB an undercount due to notification lag

Tests processed now include HUGE numbers of LFT
2,268,940 in the last 7 days in England
These have a lower sensitivity rate (returning high false negatives) than PCR yet are now lumped in with the positives, without PCR confirmation

It’s the false negatives that are the problem

Positivity rates are calculated from PCR tests only

But lab based PCR tests processed for P1 and P2 are falling.

So is the reducing Positivity due to people not bothering with PCR test now in much larger numbers, relying on a less sensitive LFT?

We have no segregated data for LFT positivity on the dashboard.

No negative data. No unclears. No context (how many Liverpool style community screening, how many repeat HCW repeat screening, repeat care homes and care worker screening, schools.

Nothing on region/ locality

So is the drop in positives due to a change in testing or because rates are really falling comparatively?

Which is why it was ALWAYS important that the data should have been segregated and reported on in a granular fashion

Then there’s a chance of comparing apples with apples

🏥 in patients, admissions and ventilation bed occupation are all falling, mostly due to downward numbers in England.

How much of this is lockdown and how much vaccination effect?

It would be very useful to have an interim vaccination surveillance report.

What we do have is the ONS antibody surveillance that shows a substantial increase in seroprevalence in the month ending 18/1/21 . This does not include care home or hospitals.

In particular a big increase in the over 80s..& remember it takes a couple of weeks or more to work

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1356936912469192705

VACCINATIONS 💉

10,520,433 doses have been administered to 10,021,471 people

Of them 498,962 have received a second dose.

Á propos the ONS surveillance about 996.6k had received their first dose by 27/12/20 and 1.368 million had received their first dose by 3/1/21.

I do not know what proportion of those people are in care homes (so outwith ONS surveillance) how many are HCW and how many are Care Home workers.

Also. This was a period when incidence in care homes had been high.

We need more granular information.

And follow through to see how durable antibodies are over the next few months.

Next month’s ONS antibody surveillance (to c 18th Feb) should be interesting given the very high number of over 80s now vaccinated once.