@dgurdasani1 I’m going to tell you a story because you go to a lot of trouble explaining the sources of the evidence as you understand it, identify where there is uncertainty and spell out where you think the evidence is pointing.
@dgurdasani1 Firstly. What you do is both generous in explanation and links to evidence.

And it is brave when others who may be more senior bring their seniority to bear rather than engage in specific details on the particular evidence as an intellectual equal.
@dgurdasani1 When I was a young (and very tiny 7st 7lb) advocate a case came my way that was legally very difficult. Ripping off senile old people - many of their life savings - by offering building and decorating “services” that devalued their properties and grossly overcharged them for it.
@dgurdasani1 I knew that their had been a run of losing cases in criminal courts, often thrown out by judges at half time.

Let’s face it. Your main witnesses were unable to remember much for long. Indeed my first witness was unable to speak her own name out loud complete.
@dgurdasani1 *there*

It was that obvious how far down the tunnel of dementia she was.

However a legal point from my student days has niggled at me about theft v deception and I wondered if the cases were failing, in part, because they were being charged with deception.
@dgurdasani1 But the argument was that the “victims” had apparently willingly got in the perpetrators’ cars/vans and went to banks and building, take their life savings out and handed them over. No provable deception.
@dgurdasani1 It felt more like stealing from a child to me, but with elderly obviously confused adults the victims.

So - at the time that was a legal conundrum was what faced me.
@dgurdasani1 I thought this band of men were doing something wrong, wicked, taking the last savings of elderly people with dementia that might make the difference between them living their last days in relative physical comfort and great insecurity and discomfort.
@dgurdasani1 But how to craft it in criminal law?

I sought the advice of a young but very highly regarded barrister (now a very senior judge) and he helped me craft the charges and indictment and advised me on what evidence to rely.

By this time there were seven defendants.
@dgurdasani1 All separately represented .

And, boy, did some of them try to use their seniority and confidence to scare me into redacting key evidence. When I refused (outwardly confident as I couldn’t see why my refusal was unreasonable) one was so angry he threw his brief on the floor.
@dgurdasani1 At the same time he shouted at me that I didn’t know what I was doing.

The pink ribbon tying together his defence bundle burst open and papers scattered all over the floor.

I was very very shaken but still could not see what was wrong with my decision.
@dgurdasani1 I phoned the barrister who had advised me in case I was being unreasonable. He told me to stand my ground and on no account help pick up the papers. Just quietly stand and watch him whilst he had to put them in order.
@dgurdasani1 I did just that and the case went ahead as an old style committal to see whether there was enough evidence to go before a jury.

One witness after another, all with various stages of dementia, were called.
@dgurdasani1 They could not remember much but the court needed to see it. And we had other sources of evidence to prove key facts in issue.

The seven barristers sniggered.

The judge threw the case out.

I didn’t think that was OK. I could not see what was wrong with my case in law.
@dgurdasani1 No matter how many people tried to suggest otherwise.

I spent that night and the next day with my excellent barrister drawing up a request for a voluntary bill of indictment application to the High court.

It succeeded.
@dgurdasani1 The High court judges thought it was an important legal point worth arguing. (turns out there were two other cases going through the appeal courts but that was not evident to me at the time)
@dgurdasani1 The seven defendants were arrested, this time no bail
We all ended up back in the original court in front of the same judge
This time we had a voluntary bill of indictment from the High Court telling the lower court they HAD to commit the defendants to the Crown Court for trial
@dgurdasani1 It was a roller coaster of a case with the other cases that were going through the appeal process on alighted legal issues facing wins then reversals.

In the end the House of Lords (as it then was) found in favour of the point on which our case turned.
@dgurdasani1 The moral of the story is that good lawyers, good scientists and good people will engage on the evidence, identify where there is uncertainty (as you have done) and never never never try and use seniority to win an argument.
@dgurdasani1 Stick with the evidence. And if your argument is reasonable it is reasonable to expect that to be responded to with courtesy.
@dgurdasani1 And - yes - all seven defendants were convicted.

All their appeals failed

I was scared every day I went to court - all these experienced people against me- but I just couldn’t see what was wrong with my case. Indeed I thought that it was wrong not to bring it and pursue it.
@dgurdasani1 So don’t let anyone no matter how senior intimidate you if you have been diligent with the evidence.

Stand your ground and, in the very best traditions of science, expect responses that are likewise in the evidence. And where uncertainty remains. Well-Define it
That’s science.

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More from @fascinatorfun

4 Feb
Very interesting PHE report summary from @ADMBriggs

The very marked dip in Care Home incident is very welcome & encouraging

Is this lockdown effect or vaccination effect or both?

School incidents still high.

ICU rates falling in England - but not everywhere eg Midlands.
In the Respiratory rolling surveillance flu yet again got a big fat zero.

This is happening remarkably all around the world. Image
The Care home graph (top graph) Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
🦠🦠🦠 20,634 new cases and that is despite a huge deployment of LFT that return lower positives

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 915 (28 day cut off deaths)

⚰️💔⚰️ 127,643 COVID deaths total - deaths by date of death so an undercount with notifications still arriving 2-3 weeks later. ImageImageImageImage
There’s been 20 consecutive days with over 1k deaths, (28 day cut off death count, by date of death)

10 days with over 1,200 deaths and one day with 1335 deaths - 19th January which may be the peak of this wave.

There may be more 1k days when lagging notifications arrive. ImageImageImageImage
⚰️💔. In 20 days in January Between 9/1/21 and 28/1/21 22,001 people lost their lives -

22k Captain Toms in somebody’s lives.
Read 10 tweets
4 Feb
The Pandemic Broke the Flu
One lab
In 2 months thousands of tests have turned up +ve for covid - But the tally for the flu has held constant. The lab has run 20,000 flu tests—10 times as many as it processed the season before—zero have come back positive theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
The same baffling trend is repeating itself nationwide, and around the globe. While the coronavirus has surged, the flu and other respiratory viruses have flickered out.

It’s been the same in England.
Since early fall, about 800k lab samples have been tested in the US for the flu & reported to the CDC, and only 1,500 or so have come up positive—a mere 0.2 percent. This time last year, close to 100 times as many flu cases had been identified from nearly the same number of tests
Read 7 tweets
3 Feb
🦠19202 new cases but they now count LFT test positives in this number without PCR confirmation
More later

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1322 (28 day cut off deaths). 1506 (60 day, +ve test & Covid on death certificate)

⚰️💔⚰️💔 126,755 Covid deaths in total - NB an undercount due to notification lag
Tests processed now include HUGE numbers of LFT
2,268,940 in the last 7 days in England
These have a lower sensitivity rate (returning high false negatives) than PCR yet are now lumped in with the positives, without PCR confirmation

It’s the false negatives that are the problem
Positivity rates are calculated from PCR tests only

But lab based PCR tests processed for P1 and P2 are falling.

So is the reducing Positivity due to people not bothering with PCR test now in much larger numbers, relying on a less sensitive LFT?
Read 10 tweets
2 Feb
🦠 16,840 cases continuing the downward trend (but remember how quickly that exploded from a lower number at the end of the December lock down)

⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1449 (28 day deaths)

⚰️💔 117,378 ONS Stats authority deaths to 22/1/21

⚰️💔⚰️💔 125,223 COVID DEATHS total - an undercount.
Why am I also sure there is an undercount?

Firstly there is a settled pattern in delayed notifications evident from checking deaths by date of death over a period of time. They tick up over a period of two - three weeks.
Secondly if you check the death numbers for 28 day deaths by date of death (eg circled in green) there were 1150 deaths on 22/1/21. The Stats authorities had only been notified of 760 of them

By next week they will have caught up

Thirdly the 28 day death data stops at 31/1/21
Read 6 tweets
2 Feb
Why I became sceptical of the lockdown sceptics | by Dr Michael Fitzpatrick | Jan, 2021 | Medium

An interesting reflection.
mike-93476.medium.com/why-i-became-s…
Instead of engaging with the reality of Covid-19 and the societies which it is ravaging “they have simply used a familiar critique of the politicisation of health and the growth of a culture of fear as a script for explaining the reception of a new virus in new times. “
Neither medical science nor social analysis is sacred
But taking the measure of bureaucratic impositions like lockdowns requires something more too: it requires a moral compass. Government ministers abdicate responsibility for their policies by claiming they ‘follow’ the science
Read 15 tweets

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