Thread by @Hibbo_FPL

The Principles of FPL Ownership [Thread]

In this game theory article I will explain FPL ownership, how to calculate the top 10k average, and the concept of effective ownership. I aim to provide novice managers with the tools required to improve their rank.

#FPL #FPLCommunity

Introduction:

Have you ever wondered why you scored above the FPL average but dropped in rank? The FPL website displays the percentage number of teams a player has been selected by but this metric is too broad and vague. As the season progresses elite FPL managers with the ...

highest scores enter the upper echelons of the game. They often possess the best possible combination of players within the limitations of the budget. Therefore, a true barometer of success each Gameweek is the top 10k average. Having a strong grasp of the mathematics of ...

ownership is an important tool to help make informed transfers decisions. The development and usage of game utilities has gone from the underground FPL Discovery run by community genius Smarty Pants to the mainstream with Raggabolly’s LiveFPL the current industry standard.

FPL Ownership & Calculating Top 10k Average:

As FPL managers, without considering captaincy, we either have a 0% or 100% stake in a player. We can each buy the same players and those higher owned make a greater contribution to the average. Those that we do not own can ...

represent a threat to our rank. For example on a basic level if KDB scored 10pts with 60% ownership then he would contribute 6pts to the average at that level (Ownership % x Pts scored). Each Gameweek the top 10k average is calculated by adding together the individual ...

contribution to the average of every player owned & started at that level. This calculation also includes captaincy, autosubs, and any chips in play (Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Free Hit).

Player ownership composition varies at different tiers within the game. The most ...

elite FPL managers have a good eye for talent and a player will quickly become “essential”.

To demonstrate this let’s look and compare current top 10,000 ownership against the overall game for a few players below.

As you can see the ownership of these premium players is denser at the elite level. Fernandes & Salah are amongst the very best FPL options that fire more often than not. These players will contribute more points towards the top 10k average than to the overall FPL average.

A knowledge of player ownership can become a powerful tool when combined with FPL skills, such as: reading fixtures runs, assessing a player with your eye, being aware of player injuries and analysing downturn in either individual player performance or that of their team.

To illustrate I will look at Calvert-Lewin who failed to score in seven games. This analysis shows that elite teams were slow to sell. This represented an opportunity for FPL managers alert to the absence of Everton’s key creators to be pro-active and sell Calvert-Lewin.

Conversely, FPL managers can reap rewards from calculated risks. To illustrate I will look at Michail Antonio who returned to action for the Hammers in a plum DGW 19. Evidently elite managers felt that differential Antonio was a risk worth taking and were rewarded with a haul.

Analysing the composition of the top 10k can provide insight into players which might be defensive differentials. For example, while Man City began an extraordinary run of favourable fixtures from GW10 no defensive player from that team had ownership higher than 10%. ...

Furthermore, knowing the combined ownership of a team’s defence will indicate how a clean sheet will impact your rank. At present in the top10k only a Man City defensive double up would boost rank in the event of a rear-guard shut out.

Effective Ownership:

Effective ownership is a calculation which adds together the percentage of managers who started a player, the percentage of managers who have captained a player, and the percentage of managers who triple captained a player. The total sum of these ...

percentages impact the individual player contribution to the average in the same way.

This concept means when captaincy is considered a player’s ownership can exceed 100%. To illustrate in Gameweek 22 Fernandes was owned by 96.59% & captaincy (including triple captain) ...

increased ownership by 7.18% meaning an effective ownership of 103.77%. Those that own but did not captain Bruno scored 17pts but lost 0.64 effective points against the average. When player ownership reaches saturation any gain from a haul is minimal. Owning such a player ...

becomes a shield rather than a sword play. However, an incremental gain is still progress and ownership becomes insurance that prevents your rank being destroyed by their contributions to the elite level average.
Whilst some may question the wisdom of a player they own costing...

them points an opportunity lay in captaincy. Bruno was a big captaincy option at home to Southampton. Those that trusted him with armband scored 34pts against the average 17.64pts thus gained 16.36 effective points on the average.

Some GWs captaincy is stacked towards one player giving them huge effective ownership. Betting against the house and backing against that player is a high risk / reward play that isn’t without merit. In Gameweek 22 Salah had 173% effective ownership therefore only a possible ...

27% gain on the average with a captaincy haul. A Salah blank with a differential captain hauling instead can lead to hugely favourable rank swings. It is noteworthy that in four weeks since GW15 the player with the highest effective ownership in excess of 150% has blanked.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, understanding ownership at the elite level can be a powerful tool in the armoury of FPL managers. It is vitally important to honestly evaluate your squad and treat each transfer with the due diligence it deserves. We should determine whether our ...

players are worth their price and hold or sell accordingly. Furthermore, we should analyse the market of players for those representing huge value for their price. Being contrary and selling a highly owned player performing on a weekly basis in the quest to be different would ...

be unwise. Furthermore, ownership should be treated as an opportunity rather than something to be feared. Do not succumb to the fear of missing out when it comes to captaincy and become part of the heard if you feel a player can be opposed. Be more sword 🗡️ and less shield 🛡️.

For those that have read, thank you.

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Peace & good luck for GW23 ✌️👌💓

Credit: @LiveFPLnet for the numbers. 👌