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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Feb 7, 2021 • 25 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
⚠️SURGING #B117 WITHIN US—growing 7% per day, doubling every 9.8 days nationally, & expected to become dominant by March 23rd. It is surging fastest in Florida—doubling every 9.1 days. Scientists are extremely worried: 35-45% more transmissible.🧵#COVID19
washingtonpost.com/health/ukvaria…
2) new preprint, led by @K_G_Andersen, “Our study shows that US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant #SARSCoV2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize #COVID19 morbidity and mortality” medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
3) Here is the current inferred number of #B117 cases in each state and in Florida and California, to Jan 30th.
4) Florida seems to be experiencing the faster rate of growth. (Maybe because @RonDeSantisFL @GovRonDeSantis hasn’t put in much mitigation). #B117 will become dominant in Florida sooner... likely by March 8th.
5) Why is #B117 worse than other #SARSCoV2? It carries a package of mutations, including many which change the structure of the spike protein that enhance its ability to bind to human ACE2 receptor, yielding higher viral loads, and may shed more virus when coughing or sneezing.
6) “It is here, it’s got its hooks deep into this country, and it’s on its way to very quickly becoming the dominant lineage,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and a co-author of the new paper.
7) other wild cards in play, in the form of additional variants, such as #B1351 from South Africa and worrisome because it contains a mutation (E484K, nicknamed “Eeek”) that lowers but does not entirely undermined the efficacy of vaccines.
8) Will return to Eeek mutation later, but #B117 also led to a super outbreak that infected 10% of an entire Italy 🇮🇹 village in just a few weeks. 140 of 1400 residents. 60% children.
9) As explained 2 days ago, don’t be deceived that total cases are dropping, there is actually a surging underbelly of #B117 cases that is much much more transmissible and will cause another surge soon in March and April. Please read this 🧵 below.
10) Here is what is going to happen... currently R is ~0.9 in many places, but with the more infectious #B117, the R will jump 50% approximately. And it is inevitable (all CDC and Danish models say this) that B117 will take over as the reigning dominant variant soon—Alberta 🇨🇦
11) Danish models show the same thing. Unless we slam the R current to <0.7, but optimally <0.6 right now, we will be in a world of trouble soon.
12) And Germany 🇩🇪 also shows the same phenomenon—that #B117 will become the dominant reigning variant (new strain??) and cause a late March / April new surge. Especially if vaccine rollout is slow. sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronav…
13) The solution to defeating the #B117 is to chase a #ZeroCovid approach and slam the R even lower to below 0.7.... but optimally 0.6 or less. So that even when the #B117 arises, it will keep R under 1 (0.6*1.5=0.9). And by keeping R at 0.6 now—we will have buffer room for B117.
14) other way to win is with fast mass vaccination like in Israel 🇮🇱 that has already vaccinated 60 shot per 100 people in the elderly. Hence now look how fast the cases, hospitalizations are diverging for those age 60+ vs 59 or under. That is the effect of **mass** vaccinations.
15) Israel with 60 shots per 100 people (note 200 per 100 needed for full coverage, which we can only do when kids vaccine approved) is currently 4x 🇬🇧 and 6x ahead of the US. We need to all get to Israel level vaccinations by March...
16) And vaccines do work well for the general #B117 variant. Just a bit attenuated for South African #B1351 variant that has the E484K “Eeek” mutation. See thread 🧵
17) ...But we also discovered the #B117 has a sublineage with also the E484K “Eeek” mutation. UK researchers found it in 11 people across England and Wales. And there is some concern about this.
18) So what do we know about the #B117+E484K combo sublineage? Not much except this preprint study showing it is might be more resistant to antibody neutralization (more antibodies needed in lab study to neutralize the pseudovirus) than the common strain and the regular B117.
19) We don’t know about vaccine resistance yet, but could #B117+E484K be bad? it emerged in UK twice—independently arising in Wales, and in England, plus in 🇧🇷 & 🇿🇦—so 4 times means convergent evolution is real. And convergent evolution is usually always greater survival fitness.
20) #B117 is becoming a beast. Israel is seeing a sharp rise in the number of children and teens getting infected with #COVID19. “This is something we did not witness in previous waves,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said. Some think it’s due to B117. jpost.com/health-science…
21) More than 50,000 🇮🇱 children and teens have gotten #COVID19 since the start of Jan, many more than in any month during 1st/2nd waves.

“We got a letter from the Israeli Association of Pediatrics that says they are very worried about the rate of disease in younger students”
22) “one hypothesis is that it is tied to 🇬🇧#B117 mutation, which has spread rapidly across Israel.”

“The British variant is more contagious, so it increases the chances of infection in children,” Cyrille Cohen, head of Bar-Ilan University’s immunotherapy laboratory, told JPost.
23) We might end up back at square one if we don’t stop these mutants. It was just discovered this week that the #B1351 variant with the Eeek mutation is so evasive —people with prior #COVID19 has no extra protection against this variant —not even for severe reinfection!! See 🧵
24) BOTTOMLINE: “We have to be concerned about the mutants”.

Fauci is right about the concern of #B117, #B1351, #P1.

We gotta end pandemic fast with vaccines and #ZeroCovid approach, or else we will be back to square one again. Another wave is brewing.
25) Summary of the vaccines and their efficacy and also for the mutations.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 27
Welp—kiss public health & medical research infrastructure in America goodbye for the next 4 years. RFK Jr plans to cut 10,000 jobs from Trump HHS. Image
2) this will not make America healthy again… not by a long shot. So dangerous and irresponsible.
3) “Kennedy is set to announce Thursday the planned changes, which include axing 10,000 full-time employees spread across departments tasked with responding to disease outbreaks, approving new drugs, providing insurance for the poorest Americans and more”.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
SICKENING—Trump’s DHS just deported a surgeon from Brown University Medical School—who is here legally on an H1B visa that doesn’t expire until 2027, and has committed no crimes. Trained in the U.S. at Ohio State, University of Washington, and Yale as a **transplant surgeon** (one of the most difficult surgical fields in all of medicine!!!), she is a highly trained doctor on kidney transplants, which cannot be easily replaced. Her phone was seized at the border. A federal judge handed down an injunction against her deportation—but she was already deported on a plane en route to Paris. Brown’s kidney transplant clinic is now strained by her deportation.Image
Image
2) Full text:

PROVIDENCE — A Rhode Island doctor who had traveled to Lebanon to see her parents was prevented from re-entering the United States at Boston’s Logan International Airport on Thursday evening, her lawyer and a colleague said.

Dr. Rasha Alawieh, 34, who lives in Providence, has been working at Brown Medicine’s Division of Kidney Disease & Hypertension since last July, and she [has] been part of the transplant service at Rhode Island Hospital, according to Dr. George Bayliss, the organ transplant division’s medical director. She has been studying and working in the United States for about six years, he said Friday.

The US consulate in Lebanon had issued her an H-1B visa, which is given to people in specialty occupations requiring expertise. The visa was valid through mid-2027, said Thomas S. Brown, an attorney representing her and Brown Medicine.

Alawieh was detained when she returned to Logan airport, and family members are afraid that she is about to be deported to Lebanon, he said.

“We are at a loss as to why this happened,” Brown said. “I don’t know if it’s a byproduct of the Trump crackdown on immigration. I don’t know if it’s a travel ban or some other issue.”

He said her phone has been seized and he has not been able to contact Alawieh.

Bayliss said a lawyer filed a petition with the US District Court in Massachusetts, and Judge Leo T. Sorokin issued an order saying Alawieh should not be moved outside of Massachusetts without 48 hours notice. But he said that message apparently did not reach immigration officials in time, and a plane carrying Alawieh left for Paris.

“This is outrageous,” Bayliss said in an interview. “This is a person who is legally entitled to be in the U.S., who is stopped from re-entering the country for reasons no one knows. It’s depriving her patients of a good physician.”

A US Customs and Border Patrol spokesperson, Ryan Brissette, was not able to immediately answer questions about Alawieh on Friday evening.

Bayliss said Alawieh graduated from the American University of Beirut medical school and came to the United States for a nephrology fellowship at Ohio State University. She then landed a transplant fellowship at University of Washington and had a residency in the Yale hospital system before starting at Brown Medicine last July, he said.

“She’s really a very humble and able person,” Bayliss said. “She takes care of her patients. She is talented and thoughtful and a great addition to our division.”

Bayliss said Alawieh went to Lebanon to visit parents and planned to be gone for two weeks. He said she texted a colleague at 6:30 p.m. Thursday saying she was back in Boston, but then her family heard from immigration officials.

Dr. Paul Morrissey, surgical director of the organ transplant division at Brown University Health, said Alawieh works on getting people in Rhode Island on the list for a kidney transplants, and that’s a crucial job at a time when there has been a lot of focus on the need for kidneys and their equitable distribution.

He said Alawieh should not have had any problem traveling out of the country with an H-1B visa.

“It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances,” Morrissey said. “It’s putting a strain on our office. Her work has been exceptional.”

bostonglobe.com/2025/03/14/met…Image
3) There is a new Trump ban against many countries, including tourist visa bans against all countries in the red and orange lists. This list is still tentative. And it shouldn’t have affected people with existing visas, such and the Brown kidney transplant surgeon Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… once upon a time, liberals did have our own “Leftist Joe Rogan”… his name was Joe Rogan…

Here he is advocating for socialized medicine, healthcare for all, and supporting labor unions to protect workers.
2) Recall, Rogan was once pro Obama and pro Bernie Sanders, and pro Yang Gang, and anti Trump. It’s sad he has since failed to the dark side. But like Vader… maybe he can be redeemed someday and come back to the light.
3) *Fallen, not failed (above).

Joe Rogan was also pro gay rights and pro DACA and pro helping inner city communities that suffer economic and social injustices. It’s sad what he has become. I feel we should try to pull & welcome him back someday. Everyone can be redeemed.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 26
BREAKING—FDA suddenly cancels meeting to update next season’s flu vaccines, with zero explanations. Any delays will jeopardize next year’s vaccine supply chain. Image
2) Folks who follow me know that I’m no bullshitter. I criticized past pandemic response right and left, and have called balls and strikes without bias. And I often say things that doctors & epidemiologists are whispering among themselves but don’t say publicly. (Cough cough) ⬇️
3) While I don’t recommend hoarding… I think stocking up on flu antivirals, which you can obtain prophylactically (preventively) from doctors if you ask nicely why you’re high risk, can be a good idea. I know many doctors, epidemiologists and virologists who do for their family.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 26
Doctors are debunking RFK Jr’s claim that 20 hospitalized measles cases in Texas are there for mainly quarantine. Doctors on the ground say the 20 kids hospitalized are having trouble breathing. Oh and they are all unvaccinated against measles, which RFK Jr neglects to mention. Image
2) RFK Jr told Trump today there’s now 2 measles deaths.
3) RFK Jr is a tear with his FDA today. A dark Darwinian future lies ahead for America.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 26
BREAKING—Reports coming in about potentially *2 measles deaths* in Texas, not just one, according to an HHS briefing to the White House today.
2) Earlier today, one measles death in an unvaccinated child was reported in Texas. Image
3) It seems to be RFK Jr who said it in an official Trump WH cabinet meeting today. Not saying he doesn’t lie, but he is now HHS Secretary
Read 6 tweets

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