Short thread on the institutional framework of Iran's solid propellant SLV effort and the interesting questions posed by the new Zoljanah SLV as well as the Qased SLV. ImageImage
So we know that Hassan Moghaddam began project Ghaem to develop a solid-propellant SLV in the mid 2000s. Frustrated by the slow pace of missile and rocket development he launched his own research and development organization the IRGC Self-Sufficiency Jihad organisation IRGC-SSJO.
The SSJO would work in parallel to Iran's established missile and SLV producer, the Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) and had separate facilities. The first was Bidganeh and we strongly suspected Shahroud was the second one. armscontrolwonk.com/archive/120771…
In 2011, an explosion killed Moghaddam and destroyed the Bidganeh facility. While there was ongoing activity at Shahroud, it was entirely unclear whether the program continued after Moghaddam's death or if it was broken op or reoriented.
Then in 2020, we learned the program was still alive. The advanced Salman upper stage motor developed by the IRGC was unveiled, motor testing footage taken at Shahroud was released and finally the Qased SLV was launched from the same base. armscontrolwonk.com/archive/120890…
And to top it all off, IRGC commander Salami mentioned that the effort was still led by Moghaddam's old organisation the SSJO and another commander revealed that Shahroud was indeed built by Moghaddam. So the solid SLV program seemed to look exactly as expected. However... Image
then the Zoljanah solid-fuel SLV appeared. And it didn't correspond to the above-mentioned arrangement at all. Its existence was revealed by the spokesman for AIO, it's motor was tested at AIO's Khojir facility, the rocket itself was marked with the AIO logo and... ImageImageImage
it was launched from Iran's established Imam Khomeini Space Port in Semnan. So despite using solid-propellant, the Zoljanah seems to have been developed by AIO, the same organization that also built Iran's Safir and Simorgh.
There are also interesting technical differences. Many observers expected the Zoljanah to use the advanced flexible nozzle of the Salman but in the end it turned out to use jet vanes.
So what's going on? Well, I'd say there are two potential explanations. The first is that there is some divison of labor approach when it comes to solid fuel SLVs. For example, the SSJO could be focusing on advanced upper stage stuff while AIO works on larger solid motors.
The second explantion could be that there are in fact two solid-fuel SLV development programs running in parallel. Now I know, this sounds a little wild but crazier things have happened in the missile programs of factionalized regimes.
In the end, time will tell. If we are seeing some sort of Salman/Zoljanah combo it's likely that the first explanation is correct. If we are seeing a new SLV unrelated to the Zoljanah being launched from Shahroud, it's the second one.
End of the not so short thread. Image

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More from @fab_hinz

9 Feb
With Iran-DPRK missile cooperation in the news, it might be a good idea to recount a pretty fascinating story. The IRGC's first Scud B shopping trip to North Korea. Thread. ImageImage
During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran acquired its first Scuds from Gaddafi's Libya and soon used them to strike Baghadad in retaliation for Iraqi air attacks. However, there were issues with the Libyans (will try to make a thread on this later) and Iran began looking for a new supplier
At this point, the Iranians were already importing arms from the DPRK and during one of their factory visits they noted that the DPRK was producing Scuds. So around August/September 1986, IRGC Minister Rafiqdust, and missile force commander Moghaddam went to Pyongyang.
Read 16 tweets
8 Feb
Talking about fatwas and nonpro, there is actually an interesting parallel in the missile field.
In the 1980s Aytollah Khomeini ruled that deliberate attacks on civilian were forbidden. However, when the Iraqi aerial attacks on Iranian cities started to become unbearable the rulings were modified.
Deliberate attacks on cities were now allowed if they remained limited and only served only to deter further attacks through 'retaliation in kind' allowing the shelling of Basra and Scud attacks on Baghdad in retaliation for Iraqi aerial attacks.
Read 5 tweets
7 Feb
Video of the Iranian Defense Industries Organization's (DIO) recently inaugurated new solid propellant plant (from 0:30).
The report mentions that similar facilities are operated by AIO but DIO established this one to further strengthen the supply chain with all equipment designed and produced domestically.
There is a single outside shot showing mountains, some poles or support structures as well as overground piping likely for centralized climate control. Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Jan
Thread on the history of Iran's manned space program, which often has been treated as a joke but actually represents a serious development effort.
The development of a manned capsule is being conducted by the so-called Aerospace Research Institute ARI (Pazhuheshgah-e Havafaza) one of the civilian-controlled R&D entities associated with Iran's space program. (35.763451° 51.378740°)
However, there are cross connections to the military. The institute's current president Abdolfattah Omi was an old pal of Moghaddam and among the first to spill the beans on the Ghaem project.
Read 21 tweets
2 Jan
In the light of these reports, a few thoughts on the missile capabilities of Iraqi and Yemeni militias and whether they could be employed against Israel.
First Iraq. The range needed to target Israel from Western Iraq would be about 500-600km. There is a really high chance, Iranian proxies in the country are already in possession of such systems.
In 2018, Reuters reported the transfer of Iranian Zolfaghar solid-propellant precision-guided missiles with a range of 700km to Iranian proxy groups inside Iraq.
reuters.com/article/us-ira…
Read 12 tweets
24 Dec 20
Merry Christmas everyone! What better way to distract yourself these days than a long thread about the largely unnoticed establishment of a vast military production infrastructure in Myanmar!
While Myanmar has maintained some military production capabilities for along time, these have traditionally been rather limited. Only in the last two decades has this infrastructure been vastly expanded with the country now mustering at least 25 factories.
These facilities are surprisingly large and usually built in remote jungle areas of the country with on-site housing for workers. Maintained by the Directorate of Defence Industries, they are known by their Burmese acronym Ka Pa Sa and numbered.
Read 19 tweets

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