Two definitions of money, both faith based:

1. The most marketable commodity (the most marketable bc have faith based on its history that it will retain its value)

2. That which the Gov demands in tribute (you have faith if don’t pay your taxes in it the gov will jail you)

One can argue that #2 above...actually leads to Govs fiat money becoming #1 above.

Regardless, all money is ultimately faith based. At their core, they are confidence games.

Once the confidence is gone, regardless of the reason, so is the value of the money/currency.

In this way, money/currency, is very much like a religion.
The more that believe, the stronger it is.
The stronger it is, the longer it lasts.
The longer it lasts, the harder it is to unseat/replace.
It’s like the network effect.

In today’s world, fiat money (#2 above) is clearly the dominant religion...although gold and bitcoin have recently been making inroads and have ardent disciples who stand ready to crucify the heretics and non believers who speak ill of their movement.

And despite theory of emergence of money as natural solution to “double coincidence of wants” problem in Barter economies, historical research actually pts to these barter economies rarely, if ever, actually existing. It’s not to say they couldn’t, just that they haven’t.

Despite notions otherwise, money has historically been whatever the local power authority, warlord, king or elected government has said it was. Maybe it was gold, maybe it was cigarettes, maybe it was paper, maybe it was beads...

Whatever it was, it’s historically been mandated & been enforced by violence. Maybe someday it will change & we’ll be free to pick the money of our choosing. It’s a beautiful dream that I’d very much like to see. But as of today, Money is the fusion of Church (faith) & State.


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More from @SantiagoAuFund

30 Aug 20
Hi everyone.
Based on recent comments/twitter posts/ email, vm, dm & twitter stream have been inundated with questions about, & challenges to, my assertions regarding QE being "deflationary" rather than "inflationary"

Many extremely smart & successful people (many of whom I like & respect) disagree with me.


As such, I have been asked for "Proof" or my "Source" to back up my assertions.

The "Smoking Gun" per se...

I'll attempt to answer this as clearly as possible below

Some clarification:

The assertions aren't to say QE is "never" inflationary.

Or "can't" be inflationary.

The assertion is that it's "not currently" inflationary.

It needs cooperation from commercial banks in form of credit extension (which isn't currently happening).

Read 25 tweets
24 Aug 20
Ok...anyone want to hear a story that nothing to do with dollars, gold or bank reserves?
Well too bad...
Because this week is the 30th anniversary of one of the top 5 moments of my life.
And I'm feeling old.
And sentimental.
I grew up in a small town of 1,000 people on the edge of the sandhills in western Nebraska. Many of my friends came from families that were farmers or ranchers. And everybody loved football.
I did too. As a little kid I wanted to play quarterback for @HuskerFBNation (like Turner Gill) and then for the @steelers (like Terry Bradshaw).
Every day at recess we played football.
And every play was a Hail Mary pass...
Read 29 tweets
8 Jun 20
Hi All. With recent market action in equities and dollar, I have had several questions regarding...messages in support of...and challenges to (shocking, I know) outlook.

In order to try and provide some clarity...this thread will need to suffice for now.

Long story short, the fall in Q1 & subsequent rally we've seen in last 3 months in equities is NOT due to the core part of my thesis. It IS part of "moments of great terror & disbelief along the way" part of thesis...but not how I envision equities moving to all time highs.
Right now seeing reflation of GLOBAL equities & risk assets due to CB support & easing of $ liquidity.
The core of Milkshake Theory relates to US equities rising while ROW remains under pressure due to $ liquidity falling. So while this isn't surprising, it also isn't IT.
Read 23 tweets
3 May 20
Like many others, I watched the interview with @RaoulGMI and @hendry_hugh with great interest.

If you work in macro and don’t find a convo between these two interesting you should probably find a different line of work 😅

One of the parts I found most interesting was Hugh bringing up Princes of the Yen.
It’s a great book by @scientificecon and summarized well in this video.


The reason I think this is of great importance is the implications of merger of Fed and Treasury and introduction/rollout of MMT/fiscal spending in the months/years ahead

Read 9 tweets
10 Mar 20
I’ve answered this many times before and will attempt to do so (somewhat briefly again now).
The milkshake theory basically says there is a supply/demand mismatch with regard to dollars in the world.
My argument has been that this fact, along with others such as the institutionalized effect of the GRC, the design of the dollar payment system, the US military and the largest & deepest capital markets on earth will drive capital flows to the US over next few years.
So on a RELATIVE basis to the ROW, we will be able to weather the storm better than others. I have never said it would be easy, have never said we wouldn’t get hit, never said we wouldn’t fall.
Read 11 tweets
21 Feb 20
With gold, dollar, bonds and equities all up...have received several messages/questions regarding the Dollar Milkshake theory.
But have been out of office for last few days so have been somewhat slow to answer...
The most common question I have received is some form of...

“How much longer can this dollar run last...?”
And every time I get it I just have to chuckle...
Read 10 tweets

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