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With gold, dollar, bonds and equities all up...have received several messages/questions regarding the Dollar Milkshake theory.
But have been out of office for last few days so have been somewhat slow to answer...
The most common question I have received is some form of...

“How much longer can this dollar run last...?”
And every time I get it I just have to chuckle...
Because everyone is looking for the ending...
When...in reality...
And the dollar...well...it’s currently channeling Al Pacino.
So...I don’t mind the questions...in fact I welcome them.
But just understand...
So strap yourself in because the ride will not be smooth
But it might just be the greatest show you’ve ever seen.
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More from @SantiagoAuFund see all

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Santiago Capital
@SantiagoAuFund
Many of you have already heard my #Dollar Milkshake Theory.

In fact...I'm pretty sure many (most?) are SICK of hearing about it...

😅😅😅
And some of you may have heard me use three different movies to help explain why the magic trick of sucking up capital from around the world while the dollar kurgan simultaneously cuts the heads off the competition...
But many of you have come back to me and said:

"This is all very interesting...but it just can't happen. The US is in serious trouble. And you are ignoring the trap the Fed has set for itself."

In other words...you don't believe in Magic.
Read 25 tweets
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Santiago Capital
@SantiagoAuFund
Considering all that's going on the world as a result of the knock on effects from slowing growth & the corona virus...
I'm surprised I haven't heard more about the effects on #Bitcoin other than idea it would push Bitcoin higher as as result of flight to safety & store of value.
But was talking with my buddy @brucedkleinman and as a result can't help but wonder...isn't there a lot more to this story?

Are there only POSITIVE knock on effects?

No potential NEGATIVE knock on effects?
I think this report is something to think about...

research.tokenanalyst.io/the-state-of-b…
Read 13 tweets
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Santiago Capital
@SantiagoAuFund
1
I would like to share some ideas about Cause & Effect as it relates to why I think the dollar is going higher because in my opinion many get these two mixed up. Cause...is the action. And Effect is the resulting reaction to that action.
2
When demand for a commodity (in this case the dollar) is higher than the available supply, price rises. If supply outstrips demand, the commodity (dollar) falls.
3
Despite many theories to the contrary, there is huge demand (cause) for the dollar. Both from domestic & international entities. Perhaps the biggest demand comes from the debt service on the dollar debt that both these domestic and international entities owe.
Read 15 tweets

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John Reade
@JReade_WGC
#Gold is just above $1530/oz in Tuesday morning trading, slightly higher than the US close on Monday and today’s Asian range.

With London out for a (sunny) bank holiday, I missed the extraordinary Asian range on Monday.
I’m not sure what the trigger was, although I suspect concern about the skirmishes in the looming trade war were to blame.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange was one venue where the move in #gold played out, with heavy volume seen in the T+D contract, taking August to a record.
ETFs have continued to build tonnage over the past few days and based on our proprietary database have added just shy of 100t of #gold this month, with US-listed ETFs the heaviest buyers.
Read 7 tweets
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John Reade
@JReade_WGC
Gold: At $1326.50 in early European trading on Monday, #gold is some $20+ off Friday's intraday high.
I think it's fair to say that this is one reason why #gold is lower today (although I'd also argue that trading on presidential pronouncements is a dangerous game).
Gold: But this is another contributing factor - the change in Managed Money #gold futures positions reported by the CFTC for the week to 4 June (i.e. last Tuesday).
Read 9 tweets
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DK
@dke82
If I had to guess, my likelihood is 60/40 that the top of this run is in for #bitcoin. Always can be another squeeze up to the $6k area of course, but my personal opinion is that last move was caused by bots (and FOMO) blindly following what amounts to a bank run on #bitfinex
If you actually read the NY AG allegations and then drop the idea that this is just some crusade against #crypto from evil regulators but accept that they probably have something to back it up, coupled with missing audits from #tether it seems pretty obvious what happened:
#tether and #bfx are one firm. They printed $USDT without having the actual USD to back it up. Then they used these to buy $BTC and push up its price. As is to be expected, if you call the shots and know where price will go, you can profitably speculate.
Read 14 tweets
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John Reade
@JReade_WGC
#Gold: Languishing around $1284/oz this morning following the correction from its recent highs.

(short thread)
Gold: I’ve been out of the office for a fortnight due to a holiday and some business travel and have missed much of the move lower. #Gold’s decline doesn’t appear to be due to a large strengthening of the US dollar.

2/8
Gold: Nor is the sell-off in #gold due to a large move in Real US Treasury Yields.

3/8
Read 9 tweets
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John Reade
@JReade_WGC
Gold: XAUUSD trading lower this morning in European hours after the weakness see on Friday. Most of the weakness seems to be due to a stronger USD; #gold is up in euro and roughly flat in CNY but DXY is at more than a one-year high.

1/6
Gold: We noted last week that a ‘gap’ had opened on our gold vs DXY chart. That hasn’t closed as such, but the strength in the dollar is dragging #gold lower.

2/6
Real US Treasury rates haven’t moved much in the past few days, but despite the move lower in #gold the gap that we’ve mentioned on a few occasions in the past month is still there.

3/6
Read 7 tweets
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John Reade
@JReade_WGC
Gold: Tomorrow marks the 10-year anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers and, consequently, economists, market commentators and journalists have been rolling out their thoughts on both the financial crisis and the subsequent decade.

1/14
Gold: How did #gold fare through the crisis? This chart, from July 2008 to July 2009, shows no sign of gold moving rapidly higher? In fact, gold fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 as the dollar strengthened and gold was used as a source of liquidity (and sold.)

2/14
Gold: Although in the first half of 2009 #gold was comfortably above the level it was when Lehman failed…

3/14
Read 16 tweets

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