Thread by @tomiahonen

Because we started this cycle with 56% of America wanting Trump convicted and disbarred, that was why we had so many Republicans announce BEFORE the trial, which way they felt like voting - 5 GOP Senators siding to convict

NOW that polling HAS TO MOVE higher, to pick up Senators

The polling has to get well above 60% for this conviction to become possible and around 65% we should get 17 Republicans = 67 Senators and a Conviction.

Do not FOR ONE MOMENT be 'persuaded' by BULLSHIT poker bluffs that the GOP Senators are saying - or the pundits on TV

However brilliant the argumentation, the GOP Senators WILL NOT grow a spine. It will not happen. However ridiculous the argumentation - IF THE POLLING MOVES UP, we GET MORE GOP SENATORS

It is the PUBLIC pressure that gets us the votes. And we WILL Get more than 56. I promise you

Do not think this is a courtroom trial with a proper jury. It isn't. This is POLITICS. Those GOP Senators have to be PRESSURED to 'reluctantly' vote against Trump (in their heart, most of them HATE Trump - including Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio & Lindsey Graham)

What Louisiana GOP Senator Cassidy did yesterday, is therefore INCREDIBLE. He openly switched his vote AGAINST Trump, and likely just based on the two team performances. THAT IS BONUS FOR US. He would have been one of our easiest pick-ups otherwise, apparently

So my 'pollster' take on Day 1? I don't know when we get polling, I'd hope there were polls every day now during the trial. But yesterday was SO compelling, on live TV, including Fox - with clearly REPUBLICANS shell-shocked, that it DID move the needle (in polling)

If the SAME pollster ran a poll before and after yesterday, there was movement. Am certain. How much? Arguably about one Senator's worth. Maybe a point or two (which is HUGE movement in one DAY)

If ABC ran a poll today, they likely would find 58% to 59% to convict. That's my gut