Remember in the summer, when it can be pouring down the street, but dry at your place? Same kinda thing incoming overnight about temps. Temp will be influenced by elevation and location: 34°, 33°, 32°, 31°, 30° will be scattered across our county. The average temp freezing line..
...is expected to bisect Davidson and Williamson Counties. Note that we need 31° and 30° temps for a long time to cause ice accretion, but the problem is there is no indication where the hazards are. Icy roads will look wet, and wet roads will look icy. You can keep an eye on ..
.. personal weather station surface temperatures here (wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&s…) early Thursday morning. Note not all those stations are calibrated. Fun, isn't it? ...
...now, it's possible the rain we get will be too light, limiting ice development. Also, the freezing line may move quickly north of us during the day Thursday and allow our precip to melt. Or we could get hammered by ice overnight which will pin our surface temps to freezing ...
... and keep the ice development around during the day -- that is unlikely but possible. For now we think this is a mainly Joelton/Fairview event, with potential for icing and travel problems to move closer to Nashville, Brentwood, Franklin. /end rant/ /blog coming/
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Davidson & Williamson Counties cover 1,110 sq. mi. Will Co's highest elevation is 1256 feet, Davidson's is 1160 feet. Temps vary by elevation. Roads go up and down hills. Some are shaded, some runoff water well. Where ice has formed, or may form, is as diverse as our community...
...therefore we know no specifics. General rules are helpful but not decisive. Wind helps dry roads. Roads at elevation are colder, but they got gravity on their side, water can run off. Treated roads will hold less ice than untreated roads. It appears...
...we avoided a legit ice storm by about 2° to 4° in most places. Any standing water or existing ice that hasn't melted this afternoon should remain icy overnight as temps everywhere drop below freezing. Check Waze, Google Maps, for the OK before undertaking a route...
I was cleaning bookmarks. Came across weather.gov/safety/ National Weather Service Safety Tips.
You got Floods (ya), Lightning (nodding), Tornadoes, Hurricanes, etc. Feed me those tips.
But what was this? 1/12
Safety Tips for Space Weather? Um, is space threatening us?
I clicked the link hoping for tips about alien invasion (everyone dress like a stormtrooper), space thunderstorms (beam/teleport to alternate hemisphere), asteroids (Roman Josi slap shot)?
2/
Instead the first thing you see are space weather victims
untethered space-exploring astronaut,
comically large satellite,
communications (gulp),
GPS (ruh),
aviation (roh),
electric power (ruh roh),
Technical forecast discussion from @NWSNashville just posted, describing several factors that could reduce or supplement 0.5" to 1" expected tomorrow. I hereby attempt to unpack it. A thread 1/
2/ Some models think surface temps will drop only into the mid 30s, then stop there. Splat/Melt would "dramatically cut snow totals."
3/ However, other data shows dry air aloft that, once the Dry Air Monster (D.A.M.) is fed, will lower surface temps ~ freezing. When the D.A.M. eats, the air around him cools. This is called "evaporative cooling," or if you're a cool scientist, "wet bulbing" to freezing.
Storm Update! 1 of 7. Two rounds (really, just one) of storms tomorrow.
ROUND ONE: fizzles shortly after midnight. HRRR model shows strong storms now in west Tennessee, but as they get to us in the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning, they dissolve into weaksauce, no big deal.
2 of 7. The Euro model agrees, Round 1 of storms fizzles like an ice cube in boiling water. Even the NAM3 model agrees, ⬇️.
3 of 7. This is why the Storm Prediction Center keeps us out of its severe weather outlook through 7 AM. Round 1: meh.
Winds strong all day Thu, gusting up to 45 MPH. Secure loose objects and lightweight loved ones. Parking under trees is risky. Winds will LOL at your umbrella.
Flooding Potential Update, 1 of 5. HRRR model this morning thru Friday 6 PM predicts about 1" for us. It *also* paints a "training" line of heavier rain dropping 2" to 2.5" into S. Will Co. This may shift. Where this "training" line actually sets up is key to flooding severity.
2 of 5. HRRR model only goes into Friday night. It's going to rain hard Saturday, too. The NAM3 model goes 24 hours further than the HRRR, into Saturday night. NAM3 has a "training" rain total up to 3.1" over a 48 hour period (Thu night thru Sat night).
3 of 5. Thus, the message here is everyone can expect, at the very least, another 1"+ of rain thru Saturday night, but the concern is where that "training" heavier rain will set up. I'm concerned, if not alarmed, that the Euro is training 5" of rain Thu night thru Sat night.