, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Flooding Potential Update, 1 of 5. HRRR model this morning thru Friday 6 PM predicts about 1" for us. It *also* paints a "training" line of heavier rain dropping 2" to 2.5" into S. Will Co. This may shift. Where this "training" line actually sets up is key to flooding severity.
2 of 5. HRRR model only goes into Friday night. It's going to rain hard Saturday, too. The NAM3 model goes 24 hours further than the HRRR, into Saturday night. NAM3 has a "training" rain total up to 3.1" over a 48 hour period (Thu night thru Sat night).
3 of 5. Thus, the message here is everyone can expect, at the very least, another 1"+ of rain thru Saturday night, but the concern is where that "training" heavier rain will set up. I'm concerned, if not alarmed, that the Euro is training 5" of rain Thu night thru Sat night.
4 of 5. However, 5" may be too high. Euro ensemble guidance thinks right around 3.0" total, through Saturday night. GFS only has around 2" (see below). NWS-Nashville thinks the rain totals will be between 3" and 4", with locally higher amounts possible.
5 of 5. Still, that's too much. We can't take much more rain. Once we get over 2", flash flooding is almost certain to recur. This isn't forecast to be as bad as May 2010, but it doesn't have to be that bad to be bad. Be ready, y'all. Respect the risk, seek updates.
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