Thread by @GrantRants

Sorry I am late to this today. Here is your Niagara weekly deep dive into the local #COVID19 data.
We'll start with the basics: New cases remain in the 20s and for only the second time in just over a month, no new deaths reported today. (thread)

stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…

The downward trend in new cases & cases continues. Today's new cases are up from yesterday, but remember we don't get too hung up on one day's data. It is the trend we are interested in.

COVID-19 in Niagara-Curve public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

So on that point, notice the rounding trend of the infection curve. It hasn't reached that flat, plateau that we want to see when infections are no longer rising, but it is absolutely showing a leaving off trend.

Also of note, hospitalizations and outbreaks are not increasing. They have not really fallen significantly this week, but they are not piling up like they had been. Also, as of just a moment ago @niagarahealth reports its facilities are #COVID19 free.

Looking just at new cases per day, you can see Niagara is looking a lot like it did in November, albeit the infection trend is going the other way.

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Does this mean Niagara is out of the wood? No.

First, there is the ongoing issue of #COVID19 deaths. No deaths today is a good thing, but there are 72 people 80+ and 88 people over 60 currently fighting the virus. They are the ones most at risk.
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

At least 353 Niagara residents with #COVID19 have died, giving Niagara one of the highest pandemic death rates, and highest number of total deaths, of any region in Ontario:

COVID-19 in Niagara: deaths over time public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

So if the province's plan to reopen goes ahead over the objection of medical experts next week, where will Niagara be in the rainbow of #COVID19 restrictions? A bit hard to tell, but here are the key metrics the province claims it monitors to make these decisions:

Looking first at cases per 100,000, Niagara is still well above the red zone threshold, which if this was the measuring stick, but would Niagara into the grey lockdown zone.

Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Of note here, is that in early Dec. when the cases per 100,000 reached the max threshold for red zone, local health leaders asked Niagara to be moved from orange to red to try and blunt the coming crisis. The province did not listen.

Looking at the percentage of positive #COVID19 tests, this number is also falling but at the max threshold for the orange zone, meaning it puts Niagara in the red.

Niagara COVID-19: positivity rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h .

The most encouraging metric is the reproductive number (the number of people a single infected person will get sick.) If that number is 1 or higher, your cases are going to increase. Below one they are decreasing. Right now it is below one:

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

None of the metrics can tell the tale on their own, they need to be considered together. Another important metric is % of cases with no origin. It sits at 63%, a result in part to public health contact tracing being so overwhelmed detailed investigations are not possible.

This means public health has a very hard time understanding where cases are arising from. And if they do not know what, they cannot take appropriate actions to break the trains of virus transmission.

Watch for a full update on this data and what it might mean for Niagara next week in @StCatStandard later this afternoon.

Be safe, be smart, and be kind.

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