Thread by @GrantRants

So, some folks and politicians are reacting today's grey zone news by saying, in effect, "cases are very low, we should be red or orange zone."
This overstates where Niagara is, underestimates the 2nd wave, and redefines "low" when it comes to #COVID19 cases. (thread)

So let's look at some data. This chart is very helpful, looking at new cases per day, and can be a useful way to track the general path of the pandemic locally.

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Look at the last two weeks. Look at the summer. Which one is "very low"?

Looking at where we are currently you can see there has been a very steep drop in daily cases, which is good news. But that is not the whole story and to understand a pandemic, you need to take a longer view than a week or two. So let's do that.

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Look back to the start of the pandemic, say March through May. During that period, our infection rate was not considered "low" but it was better than some other regions which at the time were in worse shape than Niagara.

During that period, daily cases are in the double digits. (under 20) The further back in time you go, the higher the number. Things don't become "very low" until middle May when we see regular, single-digit cases daily. Sometimes it was zero. And that carried through the summer.

Again we are defining "very low" as low single-digit cases, or zero. Nothing in the double digits.

This starts to change in late Sept when cases go back into the double digits and within a month are back in the 20s and rising. Through Nov cases are in the 20 and 30s. The damn breaks in early Dec.

You know the rest, cases exploded, outbreaks followed and then so did deaths. A lot of deaths. Fortunately, things have improved. But are cases "very low"?
No.

COVID-19 in Niagara: deaths over time public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Can we get to "very low"? Maybe. There are other metrics, like the productive rate and average cases per day over seven days which show a very definite downward trend. But we are not there yet.

We are on our way there, and in a pandemic, that makes a huge difference.

It was just a week ago daily cases were in the 40s to 60s. And now we are in the 20s and falling but still well beyond the actual "very low" phase we experienced in the summer.

Did Niagara businesses stop the spread before the second wave? No. We know workplace spread and spread among restaurant/bar patrons were key drivers the fed the infection rate until it spun out of control.

Is it reasonable to think if we go back to how things were in the fall, a 3rd wave will be avoided? Logically, if the rainbow zones failed to stop a 2nd wave, and we now have new, more infectious variants, will repeating the past stop a 3rd wave?

What happened in January was a direct result of a failure by gov, businesses and the community to limit the spread of #COVID19. It could have been avoided. It was not and people died as a result.

Now we have more infectious variants in Ontario and science modelling predicts if they spread we will see a 3rd wave and 3rd lockdown by the spring. And at this point, with cases still where they were in Sept, some folks want to take the restrictions off.

As it was in the fall, what happens now is up to us. Our collective action will decide our fate.

Chest thumping, boosterism and wishful thinking will not win the race against COVID-19. Fortitude, smarts and a clear-headed view of the science will.

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