"Not having those vaccines in time created the perfect storm," says @WSendzik, in talking about how Niagara's second #COVID19 wave claimed so many lives.
The mayor says "we have really got a handle on #COVID19."
This is not what yesterday's science table modelling showed, which indicated that without strong measures in place, we are headed for a spring 3rd wave.
The mayor is correct when he says the infection rate locally has dropped considerably in recent weeks. But as my reporting later today will show, that drop is VERY recent and @mustafahirji says he has to be pushed down further still.
Other metrics beyond the daily case count are in place here., Including hospital and public health capacity, which are still recovering from the 2nd wave. Outbreaks are still high as are hospitalizations.
The science modelling from yesterday shows that the new variants are likely to trigger a third wave by the spring. If so, the region will need the public health and hospital capacity to cope with it.
The idea is that if you keep the infection rate very low (it is not very low at present) and you rollout mass vaccinations you can get ahead of the variants before a 3rd wave starts. But there is not anywhere near enough vaccines yet to do that.
IT has to be pushed down, not he. Geez, Twitter, give us that edit button, would ya?
We also know that workplace spread was considerable driver of cases in the second wave, as was transmission between patrons at restaurants and bars. The colour-coded system we are returning to failed to prevent any of this.
Our full coverage of Niagara moving to grey zone will be posted shortly.

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More from @GrantRants

13 Feb
The political #COVID19 debate has heated up in Niagara, on social media at least, with people attacking @mustafahirji and at least one regional councillor caught between questioning the MoH, pushing back against those who threaten to vote her out and pushing misinformation.
In a local hospitality Facebook page that has a lot of cross over with an anti-masker group, people are calling @mustafahirji names, calling for him to be fired and representing the data. Welland reg. coun, Leanna Villella is in the thick of it.
A couple of things to note about what the councillor says here.
The first is that the MoH does not "override" the province. The authority of an MoH is CREATED by provincial law. When an MoH issues a sec. 22 order, it is under his/her authority as granted by the province.
Read 18 tweets
13 Feb
So, some folks and politicians are reacting today's grey zone news by saying, in effect, "cases are very low, we should be red or orange zone."
This overstates where Niagara is, underestimates the 2nd wave, and redefines "low" when it comes to #COVID19 cases. (thread)
So let's look at some data. This chart is very helpful, looking at new cases per day, and can be a useful way to track the general path of the pandemic locally.

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Look at the last two weeks. Look at the summer. Which one is "very low"?
Read 16 tweets
12 Feb
Big congrats to the team at @cbcfifth for their doc on police accountability and the local cop-on-cop shooting in Niagara. Bit a professional thrill to be part of an episode on an investigative news show I grew up watching and was inspired by! (thread)
Also was pleased to see the work of my colleagues at @StCatStandard over the years featured including @BobTym @abenner1 @RobHoule55 Erik White @downs_peter included in the show!
It is a truism in journalism that the work done, day in and day out by local, daily newspaper journalists is relied on by our broadcast counterparts for their work, often forming part of the spine of their own investigations.
Read 7 tweets
10 Feb
Sorry I am late to this today. Here is your Niagara weekly deep dive into the local #COVID19 data.
We'll start with the basics: New cases remain in the 20s and for only the second time in just over a month, no new deaths reported today. (thread)

stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…
The downward trend in new cases & cases continues. Today's new cases are up from yesterday, but remember we don't get too hung up on one day's data. It is the trend we are interested in.

COVID-19 in Niagara-Curve public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
So on that point, notice the rounding trend of the infection curve. It hasn't reached that flat, plateau that we want to see when infections are no longer rising, but it is absolutely showing a leaving off trend.
Read 15 tweets
26 Jan
So, I want to talk about the story we published today about Niagara's deadliest #COVID19 weekend. 22 confirmed deaths in 48 hours. By any stretch, a tragedy that should wound a community deeply. So let's chat a bit. Pull up a chair.
To catch up, read this story:

It was Niagara’s deadliest pandemic weekend, and more deaths are likely on the way stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r… via @StCatStandard
So let's consider that number. 22 people. That is 22 people with names. Families. Friends. They contributed. And despite what the anti-maskers will tell you, they had lives that had value and meaning. Their loss should impact us all. 22 people in 48 hours.
Read 19 tweets
25 Jan
On today's @fordnation #COVID19 update, Doug Ford will not say if health care workers who refuse to vaccinated will still be allowed to work in high-risk setting likes LTC homes. @celliottability also will not say if they will be able to work with vulnerable populations.
Gen. Hillier is asked about another diverted shipment of Moderna vaccines in another community, and again does not answer the question, speaking about the vaccination program generally.
For context, Niagara lost a shipment of Moderna that was diverted elsewhere without any explanation and no one in @fordnation's government will answer questions about it. Also for context 22 Niagara residents with #COVID19 died over the last three days.
Read 4 tweets

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