OK, almost 2.5 years ago, I tweeted out a thread comparing $TSLA to $GM as investments based on their financial position and my evaluation of their prospects.
You can probably guess where I landed 🙃, but here's that old thread if you want to read it:
(updated charts to follow)
Somebody suggested that it would be more fair to use Long Term Debt than Total Debt for GM, so I made that change (shown here, updated through 2018 Actuals):
But a few years have happened since the end of 2018, so why not update the chart?
Are you ready?
You are *not* ready. 😂🤣
Without changing the original chart's scale, here it is updated through 2020:
To reward the reader, here are a few more $TSLA vs. $GM charts.
This one shows the Total Revenue trend vs. Long Term Debt as a % of that revenue.
Both metrics have never been worse for GM than what they reported today (since they last went bankrupt). 😬
This is a simple chart that just gives you Total Revenue vs. Long Term Debt ($) by year.
This chart sets debt vs. market cap (how much its owners think each co. is worth).
GM's stock price has been rising (somehow), even as its sales shrink, yr after yr.
Tesla could pay off its Long Term Debt for 1% dilution
GM's owners think the whole co. isn't worth what it owes
I have updated my $TSLA forecast with the reported Q4 deliveries.
Q4 looks like a ~$2.3B GAAP profit to me, including an unusual ~$1.6B benefit (deferred tax asset from prior years' losses) that will surprise many.
Adj. EBITDA is highlighted below for better comparability.
Total revenue per delivery should be down slightly, mostly due to sales mix (more 3/Y, less S/X). Automotive Revenue will break the previous quarterly record easily.
Total revenue should exceed $10B for the first time.
I have Total gross margin at 22.3%, not to be confused with Automotive gross margin of 26.0% with regulatory credits or 24.3% without.
The DTA benefit appears on the Provision/(Benefit) for Income Taxes line.
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread. Many numbers for those who like numbers & many charts for those who like charts.
Where does Tesla have left to go, after breaking all the records in Q3 2020?? They're just going to keep setting higher records. 🔌🔋⚡️🚗🚀📈
After Elon's stock-based compensation expense hit a record high in Q3, I saw some people worry that the expense will just keep rising every quarter. Fear not, $TSLA owner: that non-cash expense a) isn't real and b) has probably peaked (see 4th slide).
These charts are just different ways of showing Tesla's revenue growth and improving cost efficiencies which together lead to increasing profitability.
I tweet a lot of charts showing how $TSLA has grown delivery volume and revenue dollars exponentially over the years, but here's a different way of slicing the data completely:
How does Tesla's average dollar of revenue break down by source? How does that change over time?
As you can see, Leasing, Energy, and Services & Other have had a hard time keeping up with the explosive growth in Automotive Sales and thus Regulatory Credit sales.
You may now be wondering how Tesla *spends* its average dollar of revenue. I was wondering the same thing...
When Tesla spent more than the whole dollar, it posted Non-GAAP losses; when it spent less than the whole dollar, it posed Non-GAAP profits.
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast, updated with this morning's delivery report.
I cannot underscore enough: EVs are the future of transportation and- so far- only Tesla has figured out how to make them profitably.
Tesla's Adjusted EBITDA (profit) will rise as quarterly deliveries increase.
Here's how Tesla S3XY deliveries have grown and will continue to grow. Since Tesla no longer reports deliveries of S separately from X or 3 separately from Y, I have to make educated guesses in my forecast model.