Thread by @BenChu_

Is the new India Enhanced Trade Partnership a “big win for Britain” and a “golden Brexit bonanza”?

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Thread….

It’s been described that way in the UK media.

See (anonymous) government sources talking to the Sun and the Express here…2/ thesun.co.uk/news/14002022/…

express.co.uk/news/politics/…

A free trade deal with India – with its 1.3bn population, fast GDP growth and high tariff walls - would undoubtedly be a big prize...3/

But the ETP is not a trade deal – it’s an agreement to keep talking about a possible future deal.

That’s certainly worth having – but it’s importance should not be exaggerated...4/

gov.uk/government/new…

The EU has been in talks with India on and off since 2007 about a trade deal – and they haven’t gone anywhere.

Ironically, one of the reasons those talks stalled was that one member state – the UK - objected to India’s ask on travel and work visas for it’s nationals....5/

Will the UK really be more amenable on the visa front now we've have left the EU and imposed a more restrictive immigration regime?...6/

It's also important to recognise that the Indian political and civil service establishment has traditionally been rather less willing to open up the economy than the impression perhaps given by the execs of Indian multinationals who UK ministers tend to talk to...7/

“India’s number one priority usually is going to be domestic employment – keeping people in jobs. [A trade deal] is not impossible but an awful lot would have to go right for it to happen” says @DavidHenigUK ...8/

Finally, it’s important to get some perspective on the economic impact of any deal.

The UK’s bilateral trade with India in 2019 was around £24bn in total.

That’s around 2% of our total trade, compared with the £785bn (50%) done, in that year, with the countries of the EU...9/

Leaving the EU single market and the customs union is projected to destroy a considerable chunk of our European trade (relative to staying in) over the coming decade – perhaps a third according to @thom_sampson of @CEP_LSE ...10/

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

So even with heroic assumptions about the timing of a new UK trade deal with India and its scope it’s not credible to expect it to offset anything but a rather small fraction of the trade losses resulting from Brexit...11/

More here for @indypremium

ENDS

independent.co.uk/independentpre…