Thread by @BenChu_

When can the UK economy safely re-open?

A thread

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Reports suggest Downing Street is looking at easing restrictions in England from early March, with a return to the regional tier system...1/

But question is: will the vaccination programme have reduced pressure on the NHS sufficiently by March to enable restrictions to be eased by then?

Or could this be another policy fiasco like delaying November lockdown or Xmas Day re-opening?... 2/

The COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group @COVID19actuary has modelled the impact of the government achieving its 14m vaccination target on hospitalisations and deaths.

The results are a mixed bag....3/
covid-arg.com/post/how-soon-…

While the model shows hospital deaths falling rapidly from the middle of February the decline in the number of hospital and intensive care admissions is much less encouraging.

ICU admissions at only a third lower than now by the end of March...4/

Why?

Because cases fall by just 15 per cent by that date.

A still significant number of unvaccinated people aged under 70 would be catching it and going into ICU.

Their risk of death is lower than the vaccinated older group but they can still get quite seriously ill...5/

Upshot: if this analysis is correct, serious pressure on the health service will continue well into March.

Note SAGE advocating continued restrictions until most of UK is vaccinated – probably not until September at projected vaccination rates...6/

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

So, on the face of it, implies many more months of lockdown or severe restrictions.

Pretty depressing....7/

But @ianmulheirn of @InstituteGC has also done some modelling which suggests speeding up vaccine roll-out would have a dramatic effect on the ability of ministers to safely re-open the economy...8/

https://twitter.com/ianmulheirn/status/1352176276153528320?s=20

A faster rollout – vaccinating some 600,000 people a day from March rather than 300,000 - would, he estimates, enable the UK to move down to Tier 1 level restrictions (with non-essential retail and hospitality open) in April, rather than June...9/

Ian also calculates that vaccinating at this faster rate would allow almost all restrictions to be lifted by 15 May, rather than in late September on current projections – so a full four months earlier...10/

Can it be done?

Stepping up vaccinations would be a challenge, but Israel has vaccinated 1 per cent of its population a day this year, which would be equivalent to 700,000 getting the jab daily in the UK....11/

A bigger obstacle than logistics might be supply.

Would pharma companies be able to manufacture and deliver vaccines in a sufficient quantity to double the daily inoculation rate?

The answer is that we can’t know....11/

Yet with other policy levers like test and trace system still under-performing and questions about reliability of mass testing, it would, indeed, seem best hope of a quick and safe road back normality is stepping up the rate of vaccination....12/

More here for @indypremium 👇

ENDS

independent.co.uk/independentpre…