⚠️Concerning—new data shows the more contagious #B117 variant is growing so quickly in Florida—now almost 10% of all #COVID19 case. California only ~2 weeks behind. Surge of #B117 may yield April wave if vaccine rollout slow. 🧵

(Dashboard by @my_helix)
2) Florida on pace for early March when #B117 passes >50% & dominant. Study by @K_G_Andersen put it at ~March 9th, with ~9 day doubling time.

#B117 is 38-49% more transmissible in Florida, but 40-60% more transmissible according to UK 🇬🇧 data.
3) Nationwide, doubling time is ~10 days and with an estimated data it becomes >50% dominant around March 23rd. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
4) More detailed data on #B117 and the shortcut tests of the S Gene dropout PCR test results are available from @alexbolze’s group.
5) Why is #B117 worse than other #SARSCoV2? It carries a package of mutations that changes the structure of the spike protein to enhance its ability to bind to human ACE2 receptor, yielding higher viral loads, & shed more virus when coughing or sneezing. washingtonpost.com/health/ukvaria…
6) @K_G_Andersen’s research group warns that “Our study shows that US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant #SARSCoV2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize #COVID19 morbidity and mortality” ❗️
7) “It is here, it’s got its hooks deep into this country, and it’s on its way to very quickly becoming the dominant lineage,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and a co-author of the new paper.
8) elsewhere recently, #B117 also led to a super outbreak that infected 10% of an entire Italy village in just a few weeks. 140 of 1400 residents. 60% children.
9) #B117 is a beast. Israel is seeing a sharp rise in the number of children and teens getting infected with #COVID19. “This is something we did not witness in previous waves,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said. Some 🇮🇱 experts think it’s due to B117. m.jpost.com/health-science…
10) More than 50,000 children and teens have gotten #COVID19 since the start of Jan, many more than in any month during 1st/2nd waves.

“We got a letter from the Israeli Association of Pediatrics that says they are very worried about the rate of disease in younger students”
11) “one hypothesis is that it is tied to #B117 mutation, which has spread rapidly across Israel.”

“The British variant is more contagious, so it increases the chances of infection in children,” Cyrille Cohen, head of Bar-Ilan University’s immunotherapy laboratory, told JPost.
12) And Israel is seeing this surge despite having recently vaccinated 67 shots per 100 people (albeit mostly elderly). It is working in the elderly, but this shows the urgency to vaccinate more people and young adults too.
13) to be clear, Israel 🇮🇱 vaccinations are indeed working among those most heavily vaccinated, such as the elderly. Case and hospitalizations al dropping faster in that age group. That is the effect of **mass** vaccinations.
14) DO NOT BE DECEIVED BY TOTAL CASES DROPPING. As explained, don’t be deceived, there is actually a surging underbelly of #B117 cases that is much much more transmissible and will cause another surge soon in March and April. Please read this 🧵 below.
15) Here is what is going to happen... currently R is ~0.9 in many places, but with the more infectious #B117, the R will jump ~50%. And it is inevitable (CDC & Danish & German models say this) that B117 will take over as the reigning dominant variant soon.

16) Danish CDC models show the same thing. Unless we slam the R current to <0.7, but optimally <0.6 right now, we will be in a world of trouble soon.
17) And Germany also shows the same phenomenon—that #B117 will become the dominant reigning variant and cause a late March / April new surge. Especially if vaccine rollout is slow. sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronav…
18) Germany is so worried about the #B117 rise, & #B1351 variant (outbreak in neighboring Austria 🇦🇹), that Merkel is extending its lockdown.
19) Meanwhile in Denmark, which is now genomic sequencing EVERY SINGLE CASE, they are finding a huge increase in % of #COVID19 cases that are #B117 variant. Notice how it crossed 10% (where Florida is now) only recently in mid Jan. So Florida not far behind.
20) Meanwhile, there are also outbreaks of #B1351– Austria 🇦🇹 has the biggest outbreak of the variant from 🇿🇦 outside of Africa. Now up to 430 confirmed / suspected cases.
21) furthermore, California recently discovered its own potentially more contagious variant #B1429, aka #cal20c variant that is maybe 20-30% more transmissible, and already in many states outside of CA too.

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More from @DrEricDing

13 Feb
We need to call Moderna vaccine by the true proper name of “NIH-Moderna vaccine”. It was mainly developed at Fauci’s NIAID. Moderna honed its mRNA tech via DARPA grants & also didn’t disclose federal support in patents, violating Bayh-Dole Act. HT @mattbc.
2) @mattbc is right in calling out this nonsense by Moderna to hide it got tremendous federal support for the vaccine in its patent. This is a violation of the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act. And @moderna_tx possibly violated it by not disclosing in 154 patent apps.
3) Moderna vaccine works folks. @KizzyPhD from the NIH is famously one of the co inventors of the vaccine. But this doesn’t change that Moderna needs to publicly acknowledge in its patents that its vaccine was taxpayer funded and NIH co developed, akin to Oxford-AstraZeneca.
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
What is missing from this CDC school reopening priority list? Airborne virus guidance! Like almost nothing in 33 page document on ventilation except 1 paragraph on open the windows, but only if feasible. Ventilation should be #2 behind masks! #COVID19
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20… Image
2) Notably absent from new CDC guidance was ventilation. In one short paragraph, CDC suggested schools open windows & doors to increase circulation, but said they should not be “if doing so poses a safety risk or a health risk.” #COVID19 nytimes.com/2021/02/12/hea…
3) “C.D.C. gives lip service to ventilation in its report, and you have to search to find it,” said @j_g_allen, an expert on building safety at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston. “It’s not as prominent as it should be.”
Read 10 tweets
12 Feb
Worrisome—UK 🇬🇧 data shows suddenly higher #COVID19 positivity % in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (where #B117 highly dominant) in children ages 5-9, in both boys and girls, sustained each week over 4 consecutive weeks. Ages 0-4 positivity also increasing. Israel 🇮🇱 has also seen kids case trend. Image
2) As noted by @dgurdasani1, this is all despite these data really underestimating infection in children (as they are based on symptom based testing). And positivity rates appear highest in early year settings (fully open) & primary schools (20% attendance).
3) Dr @dgurdasani1 believe it is related to schools in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿.
Read 13 tweets
12 Feb

“We are now getting reports of people getting reinfected with a new variant—from 🇿🇦 (#B1351)—suggesting people who’ve had prior infection could get infected again.” says Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan. #COVID19
2) This comes on the heels of troubling data I highlighted last week from the placebo group of the Novavax 🇿🇦 trial that that people previously infected and have #COVID19 antibodies (seropositive) has no protection for #B1351 variant reinfection— not even for severe disease!
3) Last month, South Africa’s CDC also warned about likelihood of reinfection risk because of the lower virus neutralization seen by the E484K mutation in the #B1351 variant.
Read 13 tweets
12 Feb
Vaccinations have gone from 900k per day to now over 1.5 million.

I think Biden’s team under @aslavitt46 & @JeffZients @WHCOVIDResponse can push it to 2 million by the end of Feb / early March, and hopefully 3 million a day by mid April.

Let’s do it. #COVID19 (HT @CAPAction) Image
3) These PSA campaigns with @Adweek and @WarnerMedia and @GalGadot are also effective.
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
Moderna says it has 631.5 mil doses of #COVID19 vaccines on order, of which a whopping 613 million are committed to rich countries like 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇯🇵 🇨🇦 🇰🇷🇨🇭🇬🇧 🇮🇱—almost none to developing countries. For COVAX, Moderna vaccine not listed among providers. Sad.
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/… Image
2) Moderna says it has more countries not disclosed. Why? Poor countries likely wouldn’t hide it. The complete absence of Moderna from discounted COVAX vaccine providers shows where its values for humanity are. @moderna_tx — show you care. Donate to COVAX. gavi.org/sites/default/…
3) While most of COVAX vaccines to developing countries are Oxford AstraZeneca vaccines, Pfizer is also among them, even though it has ultra cold chain requirements. Moderna doesn’t need ultra cold storage. So @moderna_tx has no excuse. gavi.org/sites/default/… Image
Read 4 tweets

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