⚠️Concerning—new data shows the more contagious #B117 variant is growing so quickly in Florida—now almost 10% of all #COVID19 case. California only ~2 weeks behind. Surge of #B117 may yield April wave if vaccine rollout slow. 🧵
(Dashboard by @my_helix)
public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…
(Dashboard by @my_helix)
public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…
2) Florida on pace for early March when #B117 passes >50% & dominant. Study by @K_G_Andersen put it at ~March 9th, with ~9 day doubling time.
#B117 is 38-49% more transmissible in Florida, but 40-60% more transmissible according to UK 🇬🇧 data.
#B117 is 38-49% more transmissible in Florida, but 40-60% more transmissible according to UK 🇬🇧 data.
3) Nationwide, doubling time is ~10 days and with an estimated data it becomes >50% dominant around March 23rd. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
4) More detailed data on #B117 and the shortcut tests of the S Gene dropout PCR test results are available from @alexbolze’s group.
https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1359738878983163909
5) Why is #B117 worse than other #SARSCoV2? It carries a package of mutations that changes the structure of the spike protein to enhance its ability to bind to human ACE2 receptor, yielding higher viral loads, & shed more virus when coughing or sneezing. washingtonpost.com/health/ukvaria…
6) @K_G_Andersen’s research group warns that “Our study shows that US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant #SARSCoV2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize #COVID19 morbidity and mortality” ❗️
7) “It is here, it’s got its hooks deep into this country, and it’s on its way to very quickly becoming the dominant lineage,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and a co-author of the new paper.
8) elsewhere recently, #B117 also led to a super outbreak that infected 10% of an entire Italy village in just a few weeks. 140 of 1400 residents. 60% children.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1357599530296958982
9) #B117 is a beast. Israel is seeing a sharp rise in the number of children and teens getting infected with #COVID19. “This is something we did not witness in previous waves,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said. Some 🇮🇱 experts think it’s due to B117. m.jpost.com/health-science…
10) More than 50,000 children and teens have gotten #COVID19 since the start of Jan, many more than in any month during 1st/2nd waves.
“We got a letter from the Israeli Association of Pediatrics that says they are very worried about the rate of disease in younger students”
“We got a letter from the Israeli Association of Pediatrics that says they are very worried about the rate of disease in younger students”
11) “one hypothesis is that it is tied to #B117 mutation, which has spread rapidly across Israel.”
“The British variant is more contagious, so it increases the chances of infection in children,” Cyrille Cohen, head of Bar-Ilan University’s immunotherapy laboratory, told JPost.
“The British variant is more contagious, so it increases the chances of infection in children,” Cyrille Cohen, head of Bar-Ilan University’s immunotherapy laboratory, told JPost.
12) And Israel is seeing this surge despite having recently vaccinated 67 shots per 100 people (albeit mostly elderly). It is working in the elderly, but this shows the urgency to vaccinate more people and young adults too.
13) to be clear, Israel 🇮🇱 vaccinations are indeed working among those most heavily vaccinated, such as the elderly. Case and hospitalizations al dropping faster in that age group. That is the effect of **mass** vaccinations.
14) DO NOT BE DECEIVED BY TOTAL CASES DROPPING. As explained, don’t be deceived, there is actually a surging underbelly of #B117 cases that is much much more transmissible and will cause another surge soon in March and April. Please read this 🧵 below.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1357566949404905472
15) Here is what is going to happen... currently R is ~0.9 in many places, but with the more infectious #B117, the R will jump ~50%. And it is inevitable (CDC & Danish & German models say this) that B117 will take over as the reigning dominant variant soon.
@GosiaGasperoPhD
@GosiaGasperoPhD
16) Danish CDC models show the same thing. Unless we slam the R current to <0.7, but optimally <0.6 right now, we will be in a world of trouble soon.
17) And Germany also shows the same phenomenon—that #B117 will become the dominant reigning variant and cause a late March / April new surge. Especially if vaccine rollout is slow. sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronav…
18) Germany is so worried about the #B117 rise, & #B1351 variant (outbreak in neighboring Austria 🇦🇹), that Merkel is extending its lockdown.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359785772195414028
19) Meanwhile in Denmark, which is now genomic sequencing EVERY SINGLE CASE, they are finding a huge increase in % of #COVID19 cases that are #B117 variant. Notice how it crossed 10% (where Florida is now) only recently in mid Jan. So Florida not far behind.
20) Meanwhile, there are also outbreaks of #B1351– Austria 🇦🇹 has the biggest outbreak of the variant from 🇿🇦 outside of Africa. Now up to 430 confirmed / suspected cases.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358916234650275848
21) furthermore, California recently discovered its own potentially more contagious variant #B1429, aka #cal20c variant that is maybe 20-30% more transmissible, and already in many states outside of CA too.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359417700045516802
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