Share this page!

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Twitter logo
11 Feb, 9 tweets, 4 min read
Here are the latest heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This covers the period to 7 February 2021.

All are very high, but thankfully all are decreasing due to Lockdown 3.
DETECTED CASES

Decreasing in all age groups, still very high.
POSITIVITY

Decreasing in all age groups. Decreasing slowest in children.

Note that increased use of lateral flow device testing may make comparisons more difficult.
HOSPITALIZATIONS

Decreasing in all age groups. Still very high.
ICU/HDU ADMISSIONS

Decreasing in all age groups. Still high. Highest rates in 65-74 year olds and 45-64 year olds.
Overall, all indicators are falling due to the third lockdown.

We are still seeing high numbers of hospitalizations for vaccinated age groups.

Hospitalizations have decreased by 40-50% for *all* adult age groups since Lockdown 3.
Here is my thread on a possible vaccination effect

Here is my Sky News interview discussing this week's Covid data

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dr Duncan Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
12 Feb
Are we starting to see a clear vaccine effect in detected cases and hospitalizations?

In short, not yet.

A short thread. ImageImage
Hopitalizations falling 46-49% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks. Image
Detected cases falling 68-73% in adult age groups over the last 5 weeks. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
24 Jan
We risk creating a legal fiction that workplaces are safe when they are not.

A short thread on the DVLA outbreak, and Government policy.
In order to encourage people back to work after the first wave (presumably under political pressure), the civil service set targets for 4 out of 5 civil servants to return to their workplaces

news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
This was when we were seeing increases in case rates in younger people and was couple of weeks before SAGE went on to recommend a circuit breaker.
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Jan
A short thread on Infection Fatality Rates in light of the potential news of increased fatality rate of the new (UK) B1.1.7 variant, Variant of Concern VOC-202012/01.

The infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of people who can be expected to sadly die if infected ...
The critical thing to know about Covid is that the IFR is *very* dependent on the age of the patient. Very dependent.

Here's a chart from @zorinaq showing the IFR (the red line) compared to 'flu (the blue line)

github.com/mbevand/covid1…
The IFR for an 85 year old may be 10%. So out of 1000 85-year-olds who catch Covid, 100 may be expected to sadly die.

The IFR for a 60 year old man may be 1%. So out of 1000 60-year-old men who catch Covid, 10 may be expected to sadly die.

The IFR for children is *very low*
Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
21 Jan
One thing to watch is that the payment of £500 to everyone who tests positive doesn't unleash the Cobra Effect.

A short story about unintended consequences.
An anecdote described in Horst Siebert's book The Cobra Effect retells the story of a bounty being offered to control the number of cobras in India.

A bounty was offered for each cobra.

You can see what's coming next, can't you.
People started breeding cobras in order to collect the bounty.

When the authorities caught wind of the scheme, they ended the bounty payment, and the entrepreneurial cobra breeders let their cobras loose.

So instead of controlling the cobra problem, it exascerbated it.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
21 Jan
Here are the heatmaps for Covid detected cases, positivity, hospitalizations, & ICU admissions. Week to 17 Jan 2021.

Detected cases decreasing in all 5+ age groups (plateauing in under 5s) * but* community positivity increasing slightly in 50+ females.

Hospitalizations plateau.
DETECTED CASES

Detected cases falling in all age groups (plateauing in under 5s)

Still very high in all age groups.
POSITIVITY - FEMALES (PILLAR 2 COMMUNITY TESTING)

*Increasing* slightly in 50+ age groups, decreasing in 5-49 age groups. Slight increase in under 5s.

Still very high.
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 Jan
The Home Secretary has suggested that police should get higher priority in vaccinations.
There is an article in the @guardian where this is clarified
JCVI has set out their recommendations here

The basis for these groups is to reduce *motality* (people dying from Covid)
gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @Dr_D_Robertson has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @Dr_D_Robertson!

Read all threads by @Dr_D_Robertson