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Christian Althaus Profile picture
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12 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Update on our near real-time analysis of the spread of 501Y and B.1.1.7 in Switzerland. Now including additional data from Bern and Winterthur. ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/varia… @EpiPose 1/4
The proportion of 501Y and B.1.1.7 increases at a strikingly similar pace in different regions of Switzerland. Geneva appears to be around two weeks ahead of the rest of Switzerland. 2/4
We estimate that the proportion of 501Y among all infections has reached 79% (74%-83%) in Geneva, 45% (32%-59%) in Bern, and 51% (43%-58%) in Zurich. 3/4
We now also provide a description on how to estimate the increase in transmissibility. Depending on model assumptions, the estimates vary from around 50% to 70% higher transmissibility for 501Y and B.1.1.7 compared to previously circulating strains. 4/4

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Christian Althaus Profile picture
5 Feb
We updated our near real-time analysis of the spread of 501Y and B.1.1.7 now including - next to Geneva - Zurich, Switzerland overall, and a comparison with Denmark. @EpiPose 1/5
ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/varia…
We estimate that the proportion of 501Y has reached 67% (95% CI: 57%-75%) in Geneva and 35% (95% CI: 25%-47%) in Zurich. 2/5
Furthermore, we estimate a 57% (95% CI: 42%-72%) and 53% (95% CI: 36%-71%) increase in transmissibility for 501Y in Geneva and Zurich, respectively. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Christian Althaus Profile picture
29 Jan
Near real-time tracking the spread of N501Y (B.1.1.7, B.1.351) in Geneva, Switzerland. We project that N501Y will reach a frequency of 82% (95%CI: 53%-95%) by 1 March 2021. @EpiPose 1/4 ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/varia…
We estimate a 33% (95% CI: 15%-56%) and 47% (95% CI: 21%-78%) increased transmissibility of N501Y variants, assuming a generation time of 5 and 7 days, respectively. 2/4
While these estimates are somewhat lower than earlier findings for B.1.1.7 in the UK, the increased transmissibility underlines the necessity of strict control measures in order to prevent an increase in SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Geneva and the rest of Switzerland. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Christian Althaus Profile picture
27 Dec 20
There is lots of talk about #COVID19-related excess mortality. How does the situation look like in Switzerland? 🧵1/5
2020 started with a mild influenza season and Switzerland was on its way to a year with negative excess mortality. Then came the pandemic and a relatively early ‘lockdown' limited the number of #COVID19-related death to around 2,000 during spring. 2/5
Until autumn, Switzerland still had hardly any excess mortality. Then came the second wave in October and hesitancy to introduce control measures resulted in an excess mortality of 5,527 by week 50. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Christian Althaus Profile picture
23 Dec 20
There is great concern about the potential spread of the new #SARSCoV2 variant (B.1.1.7) outside the UK. How many cases do we have to expect in Switzerland and will they spread further? Let's do some back-of-the-envelope calculations. 1/n ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
Around 10,000 British visitors have arrived in Switzerland since December 14. Many of them are visiting Switzerland for their ski holidays. 2/n tagesanzeiger.ch/auf-der-suche-…
The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) programme estimated #SARSCoV2 RT-PCR swab-positivity (prevalence) in the UK during early December at around 1%. That would correspond to around 100 positive cases among the British visitors. 3/n imperial.ac.uk/medicine/resea…
Read 11 tweets
Christian Althaus Profile picture
19 Dec 20
The Swiss government issued an ordinance stating that restaurants can be kept open when R < 1, and must close when R > 1 at the cantonal level. Worth having some reflections about how R values should influence policy decisions. A thread. 1/n admin.ch/opc/de/classif…
In Switzerland, these policy decisions will be made based on point estimates of R that are provided with two (!) decimal places. For example, R is currently given as 0.98 in the canton of Valais. 2/n covid19.admin.ch/en/repro/val?t…
To be honest, the ordinance sounds a bit like a technocratic idiocy to me. But let’s have a look at how @GOVUK uses R as a guide during the pandemic response. 3/n gov.uk/guidance/the-r…
Read 11 tweets
Christian Althaus Profile picture
16 Dec 20
Letzten Freitag hat der Bundesrat eine Art "Ampelsystem" eingeführt. Macht dieses und die in den Medien diskutierten Anpassungen aus epidemiologischer Sicht Sinn? In meinen Augen lautet die Antwort ganz klar nein. Ein Thread. 1/n edi.admin.ch/edi/de/home/do…
Zuerst einmal: Wozu benötigt man ein Ampelsystem? Ein solches System erlaubt bei klar definierten Schwellenwerten verschiedene Massnahmenpakete schnell einzuleiten. 2/n
Dies erlaubt es der Bevölkerung auf anstehende Massnahmen vorbereitet zu sein, bietet deutlich mehr Planungssicherheit und kann im besten Fall einen raschen Anstieg der Epidemie verhindern oder zumindest abschwächen. 3/n
Read 21 tweets

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