In the last 20 years #Lebanon has experienced massive occurrence of #conflict and political violence.

But this insecurity was not equally distributed across regions, and this matters a lot.. (1/5)
In the last 20 years, people living in the Greater Beirut Area have spent an aggregate of 10 years without political violence. People living in Tripoli 13 years, while others living in the South, Western Bekaa or Batroun have had 19 out of 20 years of political security. (2/5)
Greater Beirut, Tripoli and Northern Bekaa concentrated insecurity and political violence events in the last 20 years. Together they accounted for 75% of all political violence occurrences.
This unequal internal geographic distribution of political insecurity matters a lot (3/5)
Of course the above only includes violent conflicts between state and/or non state actors which resulted in casualties, and excludes threats and air raids and other types of insecurity and potential spillover impacts. (4/5)
But having almost half the Lebanese population suffering directly from political violence, while the other half is relatively spared, explains to a great extent the internal polarization and power dynamics in the country. (5/5)

TBC

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More from @JadChaaban

29 Apr 20
ما العمل اذاً؟
1
• تغيير كامل في مصرف لبنان ولجنة الرقابة على المصارف، بكوادر مشهود لها بالاستقلالية والكفاءة

• إجبار المصارف بمراسيم تنفيذية على إرجاع ما لا يقل عن 5% من الودائع بالدولار عبر استعمال موجودات هذه المصارف، كون أصحابها يتحملون مسؤولية قانونية عن الودائع لديهم
2
• فرض ضوابط صارمة على حركة الكتلة النقدية المتبقية بحوزة مصرف لبنان وباقي المصارف

• تفعيل حالة الطوارئ الاقتصادية لاستيراد السلع الأساسية مباشرة عبر اتفاقات حكومية بدون أطراف وسيطة
3
• فرض حجز احتياطي على كافة أموال وأصول جميع من شغل مناصب حكومية ونيابية وإدارية وكل من عمل في أجهزة الدولة المختلفة على جميع المستويات في خلال الثلاثين سنة الماضية

• تكليف هيئة قضائية مستقلة بملاحقة واسترداد الأصول والأموال المنهوبة من المال العام
Read 4 tweets
23 Apr 20
Ok, monetary and economic authorities have failed in their duty to "protect the value of the national currency", as the exchange rate went above 4000LBP/$, 1.6 times the official rate.
What should be done immediately (other than long term reforms) (thread, 1/n)
▪️ Change the entire leadership at the BDL & Banking Control Commission with independent competent people
▪️ Force banks by decree to return at least 5% of dollar deposits from their own capital, as bank owners are liable
▪️ Enact fair capital controls on the remaining deposits
▪️ Activate an economic emergency to import directly through state agreements a majority of basic commodities
▪️ Put a legal hold on all assets of everyone who was in government or dealt with government in past 30 years
▪️ Appoint judges committee to prosecute and return assets
Read 5 tweets
7 Apr 20
Has Lebanon succeeded in flattening the #Corona curve? And if yes why? Some possible explanations (thread 1/n)
(pictures from @mophleb site)
1) It seems daily cases are on the decline. But are the numbers correct? Many have questioned low cases due to low number of tests. But our tests per capita are decent and increasing. No proper information on testing non Lebanese residents (>2 million, refugees, foreign workers)
2) Even if total number of cases not accurate, the declining trend is there. And supposing true cases are 10x more, we would be a surge in critical cases requiring hospitalization. So ICU and emergency admissions are a good indicator that spread is contained
Read 8 tweets

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