Ben See Profile picture
12 Feb, 9 tweets, 3 min read
Scientsts: global warming of 3.2C is

* hard to survive
* hard to prevent
* likely by 2090
* possible by 2070
* plausible by 2050
* just one of many existential threats that mean a rethink of economic growth is now essential for survival



'for the majority of animals and plants, 3.2°C of warming would mean having most of their habitat wiped out entirely'…
The IPCC & IPBES say we need total economic transformation.

Even ecomodernist scientists who downplay feedbacks and only want policy changes admit 'the world is on course for around 3°C of the end of the century— still a catastrophic outcome'…
In reality 'the eventual warming for 407ppm CO2 will be about 3.5°C' (we're now close to *420ppm*).

- James Hansen 2018

We need to suck carbon from the atmosphere, but forests are losing their ability to do this, and industrial methods appear…
Avoiding total calamity requires 'instantaneously halting the super-eruption of CO2 disgorged into the atmosphere', but also ending deforestation and the staggering amount of other non-climate habitat & species destruction from pollution, urbanization, etc…
It is generally acknowledged that ~3C could happen by mid-century at the very earliest.

Media ignore that we have a staggering Ecological Emergency on our hands and face multiple existential threats.

It will never be too late to take action to create a more just world and try to limit the damage.

The UN still calls for more of the economic growth that is behind the wrecking of ecosystems, but the IPBES is clear we need profound change away from destructive growth.
By the way, at 2°C “you are having impacts on most people, impacts on the market, that make it hard for everyone to live.”

~ Richard Alley, geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University and contributor to multiple IPCC reports.…

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More from @ClimateBen

10 Feb
You're in a room full of climate scientists. You ask how many think we'll exceed 2C of global warming within decades. You ask if it's possible the carbon 'budget' for 2C has already nearly been used up. You ask whether humans can adapt to all the impacts of well over 2C..


Most scientists expect 2.5 to 6C of warming within decades. These are truly horrific levels of warming happening with virtually unprecedented speed in the history of animal life on Earth.

Guardian policy? Ignore this reality virtually everyday.…

New computer climate models suggest profoundly destructive 2C by around 2043 (give or take 9 years).

These models can't yet factor in all dangerous feedbacks properly so with emissions still rising we can't be sure 2C won't hit as early as…
Read 10 tweets
7 Feb
Arctic sea ice reflects the sun’s rays. As ice cover decreases, more of the sun’s rays are absorbed by the ocean, leading to further warming.

Summer sea ice will begin to totally disappear by 2035 (give or take 14 years), with catastrophic consequences in the Arctic, and beyond.
Scientists agree that impacts in the Arctic itself will be disastrous for people and wildlife.

I feel the word 'catastrophe' is correct for global impacts whether ice loss exacerbates already catastrophic warming and/or extreme weather a little or a lot.

"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic". ⚠️

+4 million people who inhabit the Arctic including 10% who are Indigenous are threatened.…
Read 7 tweets
2 Feb
Hi @GrogsGamut

Could you explain to your readers that the carbon 'budget' for dire 1.8C of global warming may already be negative (ie too late), and that we may be very close to a negative budget for deeply catastrophic 2C which may hit by 2034 and will likely hit by 2045 or so?
'17% (one-in-six) chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C has already been exceeded'

Even with net-zero 2030 we could head well over 1.5C towards the theoretical Hothouse Earth danger zone.

The 1.75C 'budget' may have already been exceeded too.…
Until the public grasps the extreme mind-boggling urgency, there will be no meaningful action.

Thread confirming that today, with average temperature already at 1.25C (using a conservative, probably misleading C19th baseline), 1.8C may already be gone:
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb
1/Industrial capitalism is a poison.

Yes, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced towards zero in the 2020s for any reasonable chance of decent human survival, however, global warming is just one part of our predicament. Chemical, plastic, light & noise pollution, deforestation
2/, destruction of fertile soils, wiping out of insects, birds, reptiles, amphibians, & mammals, the collapse of major ecosystems, overkilling of ocean and terrestrial life,..all of these and more are an immediate threat to Earth's species including primates.

3/Economic growth really is killing life on Earth. Both the IPBES and IPCC acknowledge the need for a total transformation of the global economy. The IPBES has specifically pointed to economic growth as the problem. Every policy we read about is a joke. We need emergency change.
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
40% of Earth's plants, particularly trees, are threatened with extinction meaning most life on Earth is in immediate danger.

Economic growth based on destructive industrial agriculture, urbanization, dam-building, mining & logging can and must be…
The world’s seed-bearing plants have been disappearing at a rate up to 500 times higher than would be expected as a result of natural forces alone, according to the largest survey yet of plant…
'Researchers say the planet may be losing plant species more quickly than science can find, name and study them, which could have big consequences in the search for food crops that are resilient in the face of climate change and new medicines.'…
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
A commitment to reach so called 'net zero' by 2050 and protect a mere 30% of land & ocean by 2030 is a commitment to continue emitting vast amounts of greenhouse gases while completing the destruction of ancient rainforests, coral reefs and Arctic sea ice. A commitment to horror.
'The combined prospects of an economic stimulus and infrastructure package—both of which will boost fossil fuel demand—spell a more prosperous 2021 and 2022 for the world’s biggest polluters.'…
Mammals, amphibians, reptiles and birds are also likely to disappear on a catastrophic scale in the Amazon and other naturally rich ecosysterms in Africa, Asia, North America and Australia if temperatures rise by more than 1.5C'
Emergency action required.…
Read 5 tweets

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