[24] Growth vs value
"If you’ve ever watched one of those bank heist movies where they’re trying to get into the vault. They have two sets of keys, and two different bank tellers, and they twist together. Unless you have both of them, you’re not going to get into the vault."
"I’m looking for stocks with high barriers to investment. I need things that keep out my competition. They can be either physical barriers, like a geography with less competition, or they can be intellectual barriers."
"The most interesting ones are the intellectual barriers. It’ll be mispriced because there’s a mystery you need figure out, or onerous uncertainty, new competition. A lot of times, you’ll find great businesses that don’t want to explain why they earn supernatural returns."
[44] Investing as art
"Which musician you think will come up with a better album? The artist who says ‘The album will be a reflection of my inspiration’ or ‘I’m going to have a 12-track album, and each of them are three minutes long.’"
"It’s all based on this sense of inspiration and these epiphany moments, which I think that’s how invest great investing is done. You get these aha moments."
[49]"It’s much more important to have intellectual honesty over intellect. I might be wrong but I’m giving myself the best chance to not fool myself by using a really rigorous approach. When you have a short seller’s mindset you’re skeptical and you’re trying to kill your ideas."
[78] Evaluating management is hard
"I walked out of that meeting and said to the person I was working with, “That was the best in management meeting I ever had.” He looked at me and was like, “aren’t they incredible?”
"Lo and behold, that company was Valeant. And the people that we were talking to were lying to us.
I just got that so wrong that it really made me question, “Can I do that in any effective way?”
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My must-listen today. As always insightful and personal by @BillBrewsterSCG. @NonGaap on anticipating big decisions, governance debt, board dynamics, patterns in newsflow, striking when "things don't make sense,"
bullish and bearish signals in compensation
[64] "The return on time of looking at proxy statements is remarkable. You can spend 30-60 minutes on this and develop thesis-changing insights. It's something you can add to your existing process that doesn't disrupt anything else."
[62] "Regardless of what you do, the highest conviction decision in your life should be your willingness to bet on yourself."
A good time to revisit that time when legendary trader Bob Wilson got caught in a short squeeze called Resorts International (which Forbes at the time called “the most catastrophic short play in modern times”)
Wilson was a child of the Great Depression and bought his first stocks at 29 after working some years at a bank's trust department. He put his money into two stocks: IBM and Houston Lightning & Power. On 75% margin, the maximum allowed then.
There was a small crash in 1956 and his portfolio was closed out by his broker. His money was gone and helplessly he watched the stocks recover quickly.
After that experience he decided to never be unhedged again.
The first community was Silicon Investor which got started in 1995, even before the launch of the Netscape browser. Eventually others came around like the yahoo message boards, ragingbull, motley fool.
Momo, pump'n'dump, bashers - new lingo was required for the internet age.
Short selling in the 80's sounds so much less exciting compared to today.
Go for terminal stocks (“frauds, bankruptcy candidates, accounting fiascos”) and complain they don't answer your calls, “it’s as if you were calling up the CEO to ask if someone in his family has AIDS”
Solid collection of trading quotes and wisdom by @gfc4
“Above all else...the stock market is people. People trying to read the future...The main obstacle lies in disentangling ourselves from our own emotions.” - Bernard Baruch
“Pride of opinion accounts for as many losses in the market as any other human factor. Traders, due to losses from previous trades in a stock, feel that the stock ‘owes them something’. They take gambling risks in order to ‘get even,’ in order to satisfy their pride or vanity.”
Druckenmiller: “around March 2000 I could feel it coming. I just- I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion.”