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Aaron Derfel

14 Feb, 9 tweets, 5 min read

1) While many Quebecers have understandably focused on the increase in #COVID19 outbreaks in schools, the province’s prisons have been reporting a surge in cases in the past couple of weeks. In this thread, I will try to explain what may be happening in jails.

2) First, it’s worth noting that the current number of #COVID19 cases among Quebec inmates and guards — 195 on Saturday — has surpassed the peak in this sector during the first wave. On May 17 last year, the total stood at 117, with just one outbreak.

3) By comparison, five prisons were battling #COVID19 clusters on Saturday. In the biggest outbreak, 120 inmates and 27 guards are infected at Bordeaux jail in north-end Montreal. Half of the 838 inmates have been confined to their cells as a precaution.

4) The obvious question to ask is why the resurgence at Bordeaux and the spike in cases in Montreal’s other men’s jail, the Rivière-des-Prairies detention centre, have occurred only recently. Perhaps these cases should be screened for the more transmissible #COVID19 variants.

5) Meanwhile, #COVID19 appears to have plateaued outside of jails in Montreal. The city posted 477 cases Saturday, up from 432 the day before. The city is still firmly in red zone territory, with 21.92 cases per 100,000 residents. Please see the chart below.

6) At the neighborhood level, transmission of the #coronavirus remained high in the two health districts that include Bordeaux and the R.D.P. detention centre. But Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel posted the highest number of cases in the past two days. See below.

7) The number of #COVID19 hospitalizations dropped by 15 to 433 in the metropolis on Saturday, and only two of the city’s 17 hospitals logged increases in admissions and they were modest at that. Just one seniors’ residence in the city reported a critical outbreak.

8) Provincially, the number of outbreaks dropped by 29 to 1,077. The one exception was in schools, where the number climbed by nine to 289. Given the likely presence of the more transmissible B117 variant in the city, Montreal is probably in store for more outbreaks.

9) The rapid resurgence in #COVID19 cases in both prisons and overcrowded schools underscores how quickly this #pandemic can take a turn for the worse. These latest developments call for heightened vigilance and more testing. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

16 Feb

1) Quebec reported five more cases of the super transmissible B117 variant Monday, raising the total to just 13. That compares with 303 in Ontario, 164 in Alberta and 29 in British Columbia. In this thread, I'll try to explain why Quebec is under-reporting the number of variants.

2) Clearly, Quebec authorities are behind Ontario, Alberta and less populous B.C. in sequencing the variants to determine lineage. But Quebec could add another category to its stats pending confirmation by sequencing: new figures on cases containing the N501Y mutation.

3) The three more contagious variants — B117 (which originated in Kent, England), B1351 (which appeared in South Africa) and P1 (which has swept through the state of Manaus in Brazil) — share the spike protein mutation, N501Y. Quick PRC tests can pick up cases with this mutation.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

15 Feb

1) The more contagious and deadlier B117 variant has now been found in every province in Canada and is on the increase in Ontario. But Quebecers have been in the dark since Tuesday about the extent of the spread of this variant and others.

2) Montreal shopping malls are once again packed with customers, many not maintaining #PhysicalDistancing. Officially, Quebec has eight cases of the B117 variant that originated in the U.K. By comparison, Ontario, reported cumulative 303 cases Saturday, up by 28 since Feb. 11.

3) On Sunday, Health Minister Christian Dubé urged Quebecers to limit their social contacts, saying the threat of the variants remains preoccupying. Yet how can the government reinforce this message, especially to those in shopping malls, without regular updates on the variants?

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Feb

1) While other provinces are providing detailed breakdowns on the number of #COVID19 variants, confusion and a lack of information persist in Quebec about the more transmissible strains. In this thread, I will explain why this is a major problem.

2) Since Tuesday, Quebec’s public health institute has not updated its website on the number of #COVID19 variants despite the positive screening of new cases in Montreal. Screening, or criblage in French, detects the spike protein mutation (N501Y) common to all three variants.

3) On Wednesday, Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of the Montreal public health department, noted there were 44 presumptive and suspected variant #COVID19 cases in the city. A day later, Drouin’s boss, Dr. Horacio Arruda, put the number at 37. Well, which is it?

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

12 Feb

1) Have Montreal schools inadvertently become Trojan horses for the much more transmissible B117 variant? That’s a fair question to ask after a second school this week disclosed that students were infected with the variant that originated in the U.K.

2) For months, Quebec authorities have downplayed the risk schools play in the #pandemic, asserting that children are much less likely to develop serious #COVID19 complications. But that misses the point that schools are breeding grounds for the #coronavirus.

3) Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of the Montreal public health department, said as much on Wednesday when she expressed concern about the rise in #COVID19 cases among students. She also bemoaned an increase in cases among the parents of schoolchildren.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

11 Feb

1) Montreal public health authorities revealed on Wednesday that the super transmissible B117 variant is circulating a lot more in the city than previously known, triggering massive #COVID19 screening in some schools. In this thread, I will examine what this means.

2) First, Dr. Mylène Drouin of the public health department noted the city has eight confirmed B117 cases (one higher than provincial authorities have disclosed) and one from the California variant, Cal.20C, blamed for the spike in recently diagnosed infections in Los Angeles.

3) Second, Dr. Drouin added authorities have counted 23 presumptive cases of the B117 variant after initial screening. That means those cases have tested positive for the N501Y mutation on the spike protein of the #coronavirus. Genetic sequencing will confirm the exact variant.

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

10 Feb

1) As the #pandemic’s second wave shows signs of subsiding in Quebec during the nightly curfew, authorities are already bracing for the prospect of a third wave, with the confirmation of three more #coronavirus variants in the province on Tuesday.

2) Dr. Michel Roger, head of Quebec’s #coronavirus tracking program, told me he was worried about the impact of a variant-fueled third wave on the province’s testing capacity. “If there is a third wave with the variants, it will be difficult,” Roger said. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/qu…

3) Meanwhile, #COVID19 was trending downward Tuesday in all categories except in schools. The Education Ministry reported the temporary closing of eight more schools since last Friday, suggesting transmission remains elevated in this sector.

Read 10 tweets

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