1) While other provinces are providing detailed breakdowns on the number of #COVID19 variants, confusion and a lack of information persist in Quebec about the more transmissible strains. In this thread, I will explain why this is a major problem.
2) Since Tuesday, Quebec’s public health institute has not updated its website on the number of #COVID19 variants despite the positive screening of new cases in Montreal. Screening, or criblage in French, detects the spike protein mutation (N501Y) common to all three variants.
3) On Wednesday, Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of the Montreal public health department, noted there were 44 presumptive and suspected variant #COVID19 cases in the city. A day later, Drouin’s boss, Dr. Horacio Arruda, put the number at 37. Well, which is it?
4) Dr. Michel Roger, head of the Laboratoire de santé publique du Québec, told me his lab would start screening all positive #COVID19 samples for the N501Y mutation common to the three variants next week. Meanwhile, other provinces have been busy doing this already.
5) For example, Alberta (with a population half of Quebec’s) is reporting 164 cases of the B117 variant that originated in the U.K., and seven of the B1351 strain that first appeared in South Africa. Ontario, for its part, has confirmed 275 cases of B117 and three of B1351.
6) Premier François Legault has suggested other provinces have far more cases of the B117 lineage (Quebec has officially eight) because of a stronger link between the rest of Canada and the U.K than the one in Quebec. Legault didn't provide any evidence to back up this assertion.
7) In the absence of clear reporting by Quebec authorities on the variants, rumors proliferate. The only reason that Dr. Drouin even mentioned the variants at Wednesday’s news conference was in response to a question by a journalist asking about an outbreak at Collège Stanislas.
8) As a result of this lack of information, the public’s faith in the Quebec government, so essential in fighting the #pandemic, is at risk of eroding. At the same time, do authorities even have an idea of the extent of the spread of the variants?
9) The timing of the possible proliferation of the variants could not be worse, just days after Quebec allowed retail stores to reopen in the metropolis and less than two weeks before the start of the March break.
10) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 432 #COVID19 cases Friday, down from a high of 1,531 on Jan. 9, the day Quebec imposed the nightly curfew. But this undeniable progress can quickly be reversed should the super transmissible B117 variant start spreading quickly.
11) In my last Twitter thread, I pondered whether schools may be acting inadvertently as Trojan horses for B117, given the confirmed and suspected cases in two Montreal schools. On Friday, the government reported the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools increased by 16 to 280.
12) Although #COVID19 cases have plummeted in eldercare homes, the Institut universitaire de gériatrie de Montréal in Côte-des-Neiges is grappling with a #COVID19 outbreak that has infected a dozen residents, six in the previous 24 hours.
13) And although #COVID19 hospitalizations have continued to decline in Montreal — the number dropped by four to 448 on Friday — six of the city’s 17 hospitals reported increases in admissions, including the Jewish General and St. Mary’s.
14) This all suggests the #pandemic remains unstable in Montreal, one of the reasons Health Minister Christian Dubé decided to boost vaccinations in the city. The big question is whether Quebec is responding aggressively enough to the variants. End of thread.
Addendum: Almost forgot to mention that Montreal on Friday crossed the 100,000 mark in #COVID19 cases. The number, in fact, was 100,203. Please see the chart below on emergency room overcrowding in a #pandemic. With variants.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

12 Feb
1) Have Montreal schools inadvertently become Trojan horses for the much more transmissible B117 variant? That’s a fair question to ask after a second school this week disclosed that students were infected with the variant that originated in the U.K.
2) For months, Quebec authorities have downplayed the risk schools play in the #pandemic, asserting that children are much less likely to develop serious #COVID19 complications. But that misses the point that schools are breeding grounds for the #coronavirus.
3) Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of the Montreal public health department, said as much on Wednesday when she expressed concern about the rise in #COVID19 cases among students. She also bemoaned an increase in cases among the parents of schoolchildren.
Read 10 tweets
11 Feb
1) Montreal public health authorities revealed on Wednesday that the super transmissible B117 variant is circulating a lot more in the city than previously known, triggering massive #COVID19 screening in some schools. In this thread, I will examine what this means.
2) First, Dr. Mylène Drouin of the public health department noted the city has eight confirmed B117 cases (one higher than provincial authorities have disclosed) and one from the California variant, Cal.20C, blamed for the spike in recently diagnosed infections in Los Angeles.
3) Second, Dr. Drouin added authorities have counted 23 presumptive cases of the B117 variant after initial screening. That means those cases have tested positive for the N501Y mutation on the spike protein of the #coronavirus. Genetic sequencing will confirm the exact variant.
Read 14 tweets
10 Feb
1) As the #pandemic’s second wave shows signs of subsiding in Quebec during the nightly curfew, authorities are already bracing for the prospect of a third wave, with the confirmation of three more #coronavirus variants in the province on Tuesday.
2) Dr. Michel Roger, head of Quebec’s #coronavirus tracking program, told me he was worried about the impact of a variant-fueled third wave on the province’s testing capacity. “If there is a third wave with the variants, it will be difficult,” Roger said. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/qu…
3) Meanwhile, #COVID19 was trending downward Tuesday in all categories except in schools. The Education Ministry reported the temporary closing of eight more schools since last Friday, suggesting transmission remains elevated in this sector.
Read 10 tweets
9 Feb
1) It may be only a one-day blip, but Montreal reported an uptick in #COVID19 hospitalizations on Monday, in contrast with days of declines in the rest of the province. In this thread, I will examine what this may mean during the second wave in the #pandemic.
2) The number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the metropolis rose by 15 to 496 on Monday. Eight of the city’s 17 hospitals posted increases in admissions ranging from one (to 46) at the Royal Victoria Hospital to seven at the Jewish General for a total of 66.
3) There were also increases in hospitalizations in some institutions in the greater Montreal area, including seven to 36 at Hôpital Pierre Le Gardeur, two to nine at Hôpital de Saint-Eustache and one to 50 at Cité de la Santé in Laval. Provincially, the total rose by six to 969.
Read 10 tweets
7 Feb
1) More than three weeks have gone by since Quebec completed the first round of #COVID19 vaccinations among the residents of long-term care centres (CHSLDs). These residents have yet to receive their booster shots. In this thread, I will re-examine the vaccination effort.
2) Quebec launched its #COVID19 vaccination campaign Dec. 14, giving shots to the residents and staff of CHSLDs. On that date, there were 811 active #COVID19 cases among the residents of CHSLDs. I will compare this cohort with those living in private seniors’ residences (RPAs).
3) On Dec. 14, there were 1,465 #COVID19 cases among those living in seniors’ residences or RPAs. The government did not start vaccinating these individuals in earnest until last week because of delays in shipments by Pfizer.
Read 14 tweets
7 Feb
1) Although the number of Quebec's #COVID hospitalizations dipped below 1,000 Saturday for the first time since Dec. 15, Health Minister Christian Dubé urged anyone with the slightest symptoms to get tested. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the situation is still so dire.
2) The Health Minister explained that #COVID19 cases were on the increase in the past few days. This is true for both the province and Montreal, with the number of infections rising for three days in a row to 1,204 in Quebec. But there’s a lot more to this story.
3) Although #COVID19 outbreaks have been declining in the workplace and in health-care institutions, they’ve been rising sharply in schools across Quebec. The government reported that the number of clusters in schools jumped by 17 to 272 on Saturday.
Read 11 tweets

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