1) As the #pandemic’s second wave shows signs of subsiding in Quebec during the nightly curfew, authorities are already bracing for the prospect of a third wave, with the confirmation of three more #coronavirus variants in the province on Tuesday.
2) Dr. Michel Roger, head of Quebec’s #coronavirus tracking program, told me he was worried about the impact of a variant-fueled third wave on the province’s testing capacity. “If there is a third wave with the variants, it will be difficult,” Roger said. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/qu…
3) Meanwhile, #COVID19 was trending downward Tuesday in all categories except in schools. The Education Ministry reported the temporary closing of eight more schools since last Friday, suggesting transmission remains elevated in this sector.
4) I asked Roger whether authorities planned to screen schools for the three variants: B117, B1351 and P1. This is how he responded: “We will sequence as a priority the samples in schools as well.” Let’s hope it’s not too late to detect potential variants in classrooms.
5) After an uptick on Monday, Montreal hospitals reported that the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations dipped by nine to 487 on Tuesday. But emergency-room overcrowding remained a problem in the #pandemic, as you can glimpse from the chart below.
6) Following the usual low weekend #COVID19 testing, Montreal posted 381 cases on Tuesday. The city’s seven-day rolling average dipped to 23.37 infections per 100,000 residents. That’s down from a high of 50.64 per 100,000 on Jan. 9, the day the curfew kicked in across Quebec.
7) At the neighborhood level, transmission of the #coronavirus remained elevated in Saint-Léonard and the centre of the city, but much lower than a month ago. On Jan. 9, Saint-Léonard reported 659.7 active #COVID19 cases per 100,000 residents. On Tuesday, that rate was 412.4.
8) Montreal added a dozen #COVID19 fatalities Tuesday to a death toll of 4,395. There are signs that the number of deaths is trending downward, but the province is still declaring about 30 a day, still a tragically high number. Please see the chart below.
9) In the U.S., B117 cases are doubling every 10 days. California has its own variant, blamed for the surge in Los Angeles when some hospitals ran out of oxygen. Quebec now has confirmation of both those variants, plus the one that originated in South Africa.
10) It’s in this context of more transmissible variants lurking in Quebec that retail stores reopened on Monday. And in two weeks’ time, Quebec will hold its annual March break. Recall what happened after last year’s March break. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

11 Feb
1) Montreal public health authorities revealed on Wednesday that the super transmissible B117 variant is circulating a lot more in the city than previously known, triggering massive #COVID19 screening in some schools. In this thread, I will examine what this means.
2) First, Dr. Mylène Drouin of the public health department noted the city has eight confirmed B117 cases (one higher than provincial authorities have disclosed) and one from the California variant, Cal.20C, blamed for the spike in recently diagnosed infections in Los Angeles.
3) Second, Dr. Drouin added authorities have counted 23 presumptive cases of the B117 variant after initial screening. That means those cases have tested positive for the N501Y mutation on the spike protein of the #coronavirus. Genetic sequencing will confirm the exact variant.
Read 14 tweets
9 Feb
1) It may be only a one-day blip, but Montreal reported an uptick in #COVID19 hospitalizations on Monday, in contrast with days of declines in the rest of the province. In this thread, I will examine what this may mean during the second wave in the #pandemic.
2) The number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the metropolis rose by 15 to 496 on Monday. Eight of the city’s 17 hospitals posted increases in admissions ranging from one (to 46) at the Royal Victoria Hospital to seven at the Jewish General for a total of 66.
3) There were also increases in hospitalizations in some institutions in the greater Montreal area, including seven to 36 at Hôpital Pierre Le Gardeur, two to nine at Hôpital de Saint-Eustache and one to 50 at Cité de la Santé in Laval. Provincially, the total rose by six to 969.
Read 10 tweets
7 Feb
1) More than three weeks have gone by since Quebec completed the first round of #COVID19 vaccinations among the residents of long-term care centres (CHSLDs). These residents have yet to receive their booster shots. In this thread, I will re-examine the vaccination effort.
2) Quebec launched its #COVID19 vaccination campaign Dec. 14, giving shots to the residents and staff of CHSLDs. On that date, there were 811 active #COVID19 cases among the residents of CHSLDs. I will compare this cohort with those living in private seniors’ residences (RPAs).
3) On Dec. 14, there were 1,465 #COVID19 cases among those living in seniors’ residences or RPAs. The government did not start vaccinating these individuals in earnest until last week because of delays in shipments by Pfizer.
Read 14 tweets
7 Feb
1) Although the number of Quebec's #COVID hospitalizations dipped below 1,000 Saturday for the first time since Dec. 15, Health Minister Christian Dubé urged anyone with the slightest symptoms to get tested. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the situation is still so dire.
2) The Health Minister explained that #COVID19 cases were on the increase in the past few days. This is true for both the province and Montreal, with the number of infections rising for three days in a row to 1,204 in Quebec. But there’s a lot more to this story.
3) Although #COVID19 outbreaks have been declining in the workplace and in health-care institutions, they’ve been rising sharply in schools across Quebec. The government reported that the number of clusters in schools jumped by 17 to 272 on Saturday.
Read 11 tweets
6 Feb
1) It’s a question I’ve been asked many times during the #COVID19 pandemic: Why has Quebec reported far more deaths than any other province? On the eve of Quebec crossing the 10,000-death threshold, I will try to provide an answer. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) First, respectfully, I’m not persuaded by Premier François Legault’s argument Quebec is “more Catholic than the Pope” compared with other jurisdictions in declaring #COVID19 deaths. Making that argument risks absolving the government of its responsibility in the #pandemic. Image
3) Quebec, like Ontario, failed our elders living in long-term care centres. For at least two decades, report after report in Quebec denounced the horrific living conditions in these centres. Nothing was done. Then the #pandemic hit, mostly killing people in these facilities.
Read 11 tweets
4 Feb
1) Montreal on Wednesday reported the total number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by 67 to 549 since a week ago, with most clusters erupting in schools and the workplace. In this thread, I will gauge the potential impact that reopening stores Monday will have on viral transmission.
2) Outbreaks in the workplace are linked to the second greatest number of #COVID19 cases after those in hospitals and eldercare homes. The manufacturing sector was responsible for most of the outbreaks in Montreal workplaces last week. Please review the chart below.
3) Clusters of #COVID19 rose by two to 22 in Montreal’s retail stores. This slight increase doesn't augur well for the reopening of these businesses Monday, especially as authorities are bracing for the more contagious B117 variant to hit Quebec possibly as early as next month
Read 9 tweets

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