Thread by @DrEricDing

“False sense of security”—high tech gathering of 49 tech thinkers was held in 4 day “bubble” without mask mandate after arrival+daily testing. Result? ~43% (21 of 49) of tech attendees got #COVID19 soon after, including organizer @PeterDiamandis. 0% of masked support staff. 🧵

2) They were incredibly careful, including doing 452+ total tests (both PCR and rapid antigen), and excluding the 1 person who tested positive initially upon arrival and didn’t attend. Daily tests thereafter. But no distancing or masks after.
diamandis.com/blog/false-sen…

3) Dr @PeterDiamandis (an MD PhD innovator whom I’ve respected for years) expressed regret..

“I am sincerely and deeply sorry for the consequences of the choices we made. As scientist, engineer & medical person, I believed we were using the very best that science had to offer.”

4) “And I trusted that an immunity bubble was a “real thing”.
I no longer believe that.
In fact, further investigation into testing has revealed even more curious and concerning data. Once it was clear that I personally had contracted COVID-19”

5) “I tested myself with Rapid PCR and Rapid Antigen every day, twice per day, for several consecutive days. I was flabbergasted that NONE of the tests turned up positive. I was consistently negative.

6) “Four days into my quarantine, I finally tested positive on a PCR “Spit Test” that measures viral load. I was told I was “highly infectious."”

7) “So, now, as we send our kids back to school with “routine PCR” testing to keep them safe, as we lower our masks in a friend group bubble saying, “I tested negative yesterday,” as we subconsciously trade vigilance for confidence post PCR testing, do you still believe it?

8) “I thought five physicians and 452 tests and my entire safety team could maintain safety. I was wrong.
What’s more, new and virulent strains are emerging, and there are only three options… masks, vaccines and physical distance. I hope others can learn from my mistakes.”

9) this epidemiologist THANKS you for the excellent documentation @PeterDiamandis. CDC would be proud. And thank you for the honestly and transparency. And thanks for donating to the Frontline Families Fund to support HCW families. I hope your story will save more lives.

10) Thinking over this bubble story more:

📌 Testing did exclude one arrival detected case. So the outbreak could have been worse without arrival testing.

📌They should have also added a precautionary quarantine period of at least 7 days before the “bubble” was formed.

11) But I personally think a precautionary period or 14 days is better. We know incubation has a long tail, and though 14 days isn’t perfect, it should be sufficient in most cases. And that’s what Australia does for all Australian 🎾 Open attendees.

12) The warning sign was that 1st staffer who got COVID tested positive 2 days after the 4 day conf ended, which meant infectious during conference.

So **daily testing** during an initial quarantine period would have found this hidden cases that was likely the culprit.

13) Same thing happened in the WH outbreak. They should have used a multilayered castle defense of masks + ventilation + HEPA filters instead of relying on a single wall of testing, which is important but not enough because of the pre/asymptotical window.

14) and during this infected-but-no-symptom window, we know cases are hard to pick up. We know this from testing performance analysis — it’s not that test is bad — it’s TIMING — too early and early viral load buildup just harder to pickup before symptoms onset (if any at all)

15) I want to emphasize ventilation + air disinfection a bit. Even with masks, air flow and air exchange for fresh / disinfected air is critical. This should be a corner stone of public health during a pandemic of an airborne virus.

16) But this ventilation / air cleaning emphasis has been mostly missing from the latest CDC school reopening guidelines.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1360343218177646597

17) And the other issue is that often because many people don’t mask or don’t mask properly, we need to double mask or switch to premium masks.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359536244464766980

18) KEY DETAIL—While both people wearing masks is best, if only one person out of 2 wears a mask, the double mask (of surgical plus cloth) seems superior to single surgical that is knotted & tucked.

19) Key point #2: Source masking alone >> receiver loose masking alone. This is critical detail.

In fact, a poorly worn receiver-only worn mask has little to no benefits above no masks. Thus, if others are not masked you MUST wear mask properly or DOUBLE UP damnit.

20) the latest CDC school guidelines separate recommendations for schools that do “expanded screening testing” versus those schools that do not.

Shockingly, they allow indoor sports as long as 6 feet in moderate transmission areas. And no ventilation requirements.

21) The CDC also still allows indoor sports in areas with moderate transmission area even WITHOUT any testing. And again no mention of ventilation or air cleaning requirements either for such indoor sports.

Ummm, airborne virus anyone?!?!

22) That said, REPEATED population wide testing does work it done for public health screening repeatedly to slow the virus. Here is why... see thread 🧵 below...

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1361363254824550403