Up to 70% deadlier—UK 🇬🇧 govt advisors now says the #B117 variant might be 30-70% more severe/deadlier than old strains.
The lower female risk also eroding—hospitalization now ~50:50 male-to-female ratio (compared to more men during 1st wave).🧵 #COVID19aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/15…
2) The results of the group’s analysis are worrisome, said David Strain.
“The higher transmissibility means that people who were previously at low risk of catching COVID (particularly younger fitter females) are now catching it and ending up in hospital,″ Strain said.
3) Earlier last month it was speculated to be just 30-40% more severe & deadly. Now they have upgraded it.
4) Some dismissed the “speculation”, but I reviewed the epidemiologic data carefully... and it was pretty slam dunk that the increased severity was damn real. Out of 10 studies, 7 agreed, especially the stronger prospective cohorts.
5) Here is the main conclusion statement of the NERVTAG expert group. Though they still emphasize the absolute risk is still overall, it’s still in the same order of magnitude as regular COVID assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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GOOD news—if you have certain Neanderthal DNA 🧬 & get #COVID19. People with certain Neanderthal genes on chromosome 12 have lower rates of ICU. This region encodes proteins that activate enzymes that are important during infections with RNA viruses. pnas.org/content/118/9/…
2) That said, another Neanderthal gene is bad. “Recently, it was shown that a haplotype in a region on chromosome 3 is associated with becoming critically ill upon infection with #SARSCoV2 and was contributed to modern humans by Neanderthals”.
3) For this new finding, “a haplotype on chromosome 12, which is associated with a ∼22% reduction in relative risk of becoming severely ill with #COVID19, is inherited from Neandertals. This haplotype is present at substantial frequencies in all regions of 🌎 outside Africa.”
Texas still in crisis mode. And @ERCOT_ISO is still “load shedding” — a euphemism for cutting power via rollout blackouts. The problem is still systemic across Texas. Keep up to date on this site.
What sent Texas reeling is not an engineering problem, nor frozen wind turbines. It is a structure that offers no incentives to prepare for winter. In the name of deregulation and free markets— electric grid that puts cheap prices over reliable service. 🧵 washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/0…
2) It’s a “Wild West market design based only on short-run prices,” said a portfolio manager, Matt Breidert. The temporary train wreck has seen the wholesale price of electricity in Houston go from $22 a megawatt-hour to about $9,000, while 4 mil Texans have been without power.
3) “One utility company, Griddy, which sells power at wholesale rates to retail customers without locking in a price in advance, told its patrons Tuesday to find another provider before they get socked with tremendous bills.” washingtonpost.com/business/2021/…
TEXAS LEADERS FAILED—power outages raise fears that herds could run short of food and water. Some farmers are being forced to dump tankers of milk on fields because it can’t be processed, & livestock maybe euthanized if no water or food. #texaspoweroutagewsj.com/articles/texas…
2) “No feed, no water, and no heat doesn’t make for a good situation,” said Texas agriculture commissioner. Some areas had gone without power for >30 hours straight—while fielding calls from cattlemen losing calves to the cold & poultry farmers struggling with frozen water pipes.
3) Sanderson Farms Inc., one of the biggest U.S. chicken companies, estimated that as many as 200 of its approximately 1,900 Texas chicken houses were without power, & dozens have ruptured or frozen water pipes. Mills are struggling to make animal feed without access to power
2) “A lot of people really do not understand how dramatic the effects of COVID are on children,” Lisa Beard, Hudson’s mom, said. “A lot of times, we want to protect the most vulnerable, the small under 1 and the elderly, but Hudson was a thriving, very active 13-year-old.”
3) “It’s been nearly 18 weeks of agony for Hudson, who contracted #COVID19 in Nov. He hasn’t been to school since.
“It is hard. It’s really hard when doctors don’t have an answer, & they’re like, ‘Well, over time let’s see what happens. And you might get better, we don’t know.’”
“About 80% of [Texas] power grid is fueled by nuclear, coal and natural energy. Only about 7% are wind turbines and renewables. And those too, yes, have frozen but they can be winterized to be ready for this type of weather." ~Texas Tribune @viaAlana.
2) Indeed, most of the ~20 GW deficit doesn’t come from wind. Wind output is only 2.6 GW below normal.