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🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
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17 Feb, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Richest man in 2030?
Musk - SpaceX is trillionaire making company if it goes public. Amazon's potential seems maxed out - but who knows? BTC needs to rise just 4x for Satoshi to converge with Musk & Bezos now, I think it'll rise 10x+ by 2030. But could be some currently little known Chinese techie.
Main argument against Chinese trillionaire is that CPC really doesn't want to see emergence of such wealth concentrations & has aggressively pruned oligarchs that got too big for their breeches. Richest current Chinese billionaire is a bottled water tycoon... Says it all.
SpaceX currently dominates launch market (60%; revenue $10B/year) & valued at $50B. Cargo is $140B/year. Commercial air traffic is $600B/year. That's 2 OOM of growth, if linearly translated into valuation, SpaceX could be worth $5T. Most of it Musk's. nextbigfuture.com/2021/02/spacex…
I was (still am) skeptical on Tesla, even so, worth 35% of world auto market. But SpaceX dominance is absolutely real - huge production rates, 10 year tech lead, 10x lower costs than state agency competitors. If @elonmusk can wring $800B out of Tesla, what can he do with SpaceX?
Winklevoss twins bought $11M BTC at $120 a coin (Apr 2013). If preserved - would now be $4.5B.

Zuckerberg is now at $104B.

$1M BTC ~2030 => they converge with Zuck. Overtake if Urbit displaces Facebook around that same time.

Winklevosses might end up having the last laugh.

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More from @akarlin88

🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
18 Feb
Interesting to ponder potential market cap of @urbit address spaces.

Facebook, world's dominant social network, is $800B. $800B/65,000 stars = $12M per star.

Currently $4k per star. Potential 3 OOM growth?
But some bold assumptions:

(1) Decentralization wins out in social media. (Plausible, if team can keep making it user friendly at rapid clip. Successful so far).

(2) urbit retains a lead *within* this space. (Plausible, thanks to first mover advantage & network effects).
(3) More importantly - most of Facebook's value is derived from advertising. This is antithetical to urbit, whose entire point is that it's decentralized, so people go to where there's less advertising & censorship.

> Profit! but how?

So "market cap" may be 1-2 OOM lower.
Read 4 tweets
🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
11 Feb
This year will see epochal #DeFi boom: BTC $100k, ETH $10k - ending in a bust (dotcom bubble).

Then a long winter, when hardy survivors can be picked up at fire sale prices.

And then, come the 2030s - just like software 20 years ago - crypto will "eat the world." #prediction
This is extremely specific and unlikely to happen in quite this way, but I do think that generally, this is what will actually happen. Crypto is replicating all the institutions and infrastructure of the modern economy. But this boom came just a bit too early to actualize rn.
Last major digital asset to "moon" will be "land". Don't know if urbit will dominate, but does have "first mover" advantage. Stars currently worth ~$5,000, might increase 100x within the decade. Window of opportunity for competitors is narrowing fast (Metcalfe's Law).
Read 9 tweets
🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
6 Jan
If you gaze long upon the Ukraine, the Ukraine gazes back into you. ImageImage
Fun & based as this all is, my objective take is that color revolutions only succeed when there's elite defection. Euromaidan succeeded because oligarchs with Western bank accounts turned on Yanukovych & siloviks didn't want to stick their neck out for a craven backstabber.
Conversely, the Minsk Maidan failed, amongst other things, because elites remained consolidated and Lukashenko maintained loyalty of the siloviks. As I in fact said would happen from the start: unz.com/akarlin/belaru… Image
Read 5 tweets
🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
4 Jan
Haven't been following Georgia. My guess is Republicans lose both. #prediction
Why would lower income Trump supporters (his base) vote for the party that failed to find Trump 11,780 votes and robbed them of $2,000 personally? I certainly wouldn't, I'd sit it out, myself.
Polls have both Dems up by 2% points (Biden was +1.2% and won by +0.2%).
And there's less reason for them to be inaccurate now too.
unz.com/akarlin/habben…
Read 5 tweets
🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
21 Dec 20
Russia blocked flights from China soon after word spread of coronavirus, but waited until March 18 to block EU flights. London - Moscow flights remain unrestricted, even as rest of the EU blocks off UK's new strain. This is telling where kremlins' actual reference points lie.
This is why I laugh whenever Westerners or their local Russian agents gaslight us about "rising Chinese influence." The primary problem was, and remains, a culturally Occidentophile comprador elite (idol worshippers before the West, as Soviet ideologists correctly put it).
As many cynics believe, main difference between liberals * kremlins is that former want unilateral surrender, while kremlins hope to claw out more equitable terms from which to integrate themselves into Western elites. Hence, Russian "provocations" really just= "hard bargaining."
Read 5 tweets
🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN Profile picture
5 Dec 20
"ДОГНАТЬ ПОЛЬШУ"

Вопреки ныне широко принятому мнению, Польша вышла впереди России еще до Путина. В 1998, разрыв был такой же, как и сегодня (~20%). Почему? Экономики цент.-вост. Европы были менее деформированные, чем в СССР; у них в целом было меньше всяких проблем (см. ниже).
С 2000 до 2014 был мировой ресурсный суперцикл. За это время, рост ВВП России был даже лучше, чем в Польше (сама одна из наиболее успешных стран в вост. Европе), где наши нефтедоллары заменялись евро-дотациями и других благ членства в ЕС. А потом не только упали цены на нефть..
...но Россия также вступила в геополитическую конфронтацию с Западом, что сделала невозможным проводить щедрую бюджетную или монетарную политику. Вот сравните процентные ставки в Польше и России с 2014 года, конечно с такими цифрами рост будет скромный.
Read 9 tweets

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