1/ @compoundfinance is the only lending protocol discussed without immediate plans for token fee capture, which leaves room for a value unlock event.
$COMP is underpricing its annualized interest by a factor of 10x relative to $AAVE!
2/ Sure, @compoundfinance is the only protocol with liquidity mining, so volumes are incentivized.
But...
Even if we assume 90% of the volumes will go poof without LM (aggressive assumption), it is still cheaper than its main competitor on a per dollar volume basis.
3/ Catalyst wise - @compoundfinance also seems to have imminent cross-chain plans, with a debt-based stablecoin similar to @MakerDAO on the horizon at a time when demand for leverage is skyrocketing.
4/ The most likely candidates to benefit from the recent institutional awareness of DeFi are likely protocols that have a long history of stability.
$COMP is known for prioritizing stability over speed - though it's no secret $AAVE + $COMP both have institutional ambitions.
5/ One comment on @AlphaFinanceLab - it shouldn't be priced as a lending protocol (despite having the highest growth in that domain).
As we will soon see, it's one brick in a whole stack. I don't expect lending to be the primary driver of fees 👀
ps/ Mira is hands down one of my favorite follows on crpypto twitter.
If you want to see where crypto investing is heading (more fundamentals), follow @asiahodl (and @RyanWatkins_)
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2/ Later in 2018, I was connected with @SpartanBlack_1 when he was just setting up @TheSpartanGroup's first fund, and it marked my full time transition to crypto.
🚨 @RayDalio finally releases the Daily Observation on Bitcoin.
Here's your about what the largest hedge fund in the world thinks about $BTC.
1/ First - what you came here for, the investment view.
RD likens Bitcoin to a long-duration option - the type where you wouldn't mind losing ~80% of your principal. Scenario analysis suggests 160% is conservative upside pending a few things.
That's a good start!
2/ Is Bridgwater invested?
Nope, but there is a alt-cash fund being worked on that offers alternative storeholds of wealth as part of BW's "cash is trash" outlook.
1/ The discount you offer to strategic investors is both to account for the risk of an unlaunched product, but also as compensation for continued value add and support.
So make sure you know the investor will support you and not leave you on read once the docs are signed!
2/ Having someone on your cap table/ token allocation is as important as hiring.
You wouldn't hire someone just because they are influencers on Twitter- you do your reference checks and find evidence of value add from other companies the investor has invested in.
As DeFi matures, quantifiable metrics will supplant vaporware memes in determining valuations for cryptoassets.
A brief look at some of the major protocols today 👇
1/ While liquidity is highly mercenary and hence TVL is a poor benchmark for protocol value, it is a serviceable benchmark.
More sophisticated approaches will likely use trailing 6m average TVL to factor in retention.
Here are the DeFi aggregators:
2/ One note here is that there's option value with auxiliary products not reflected here - e.g. $ALPHA has an upcoming perpetual swaps product which may warrant another way of ascertaining a multiple.
Then cross-sell new products. @iearnfinance was somewhat like this but imo they fragmented value capture to too many tokens and diluted brand equity too soon.
Crypto trading - some personal takeaways from 2020
Disclaimer: my job requires picking investments, at times with short/medium term view (days-months), many times with a long term view (years).
This is mostly a thread on reminders to myself relating mostly to the former.
Watch out for decisions based on fear & greed
Confirmation bias (ignoring contrary signals), anchoring bias (married to entry, trading PnL), sizing too big on low r/r trades, hesitating to buy cheap assets because "it's fallen/rallied too much".
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