I have Gbit fiber Internet, yet I pre-ordered Starlink:
✅ Planned speeds 1-10 GBit/sec
✅ Cells are valuable, limited real estate, 𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 in populated areas
✅ Independent
✅ Full constellation much lower latencies than terrestrial Internet
✅ To support SpaceX
Especially the "Starlink cells are a first-come-first-served limited resource" is poorly understood.
Starlink receiver's high-tech phased array antennas, consisting of ~600 ASICs, allow very tight radio beams - but beam size is still a few kilometers wide on the ground.
3/
This physical property puts an upper limit on the number of subscribers per Starlink cell.
Each Starlink cell is roughy 4km × 4km currently, which suggests a beam size of 2-4 km.
4/
Hypothetical example: if Starlink has 200 usable frequency channels in a given jurisdiction in their licensed spectrum, then they can support up to 200 full-speed clients on the ground in a single cell.
5/
I.e., assuming 20% per channel per customer & no oversubscribtion, that's a maximum of ~60 subscriptions/km² - a small fraction of urban or suburban population densities.
If the beam size is larger than estimated (e.g. 10 km), then the limit could be even lower.
6/
I.e. there's a hard limit on Starlink subscriber geographical density: dictated by the physics of beaming to/from a ~28,000 km/h fast orbiting satellite 500 km away & the regulatory scarcity of frequencies usable on the ground.
Starlink subscription is a scarce asset. 🙂
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Why many Tesla investors are frustrated over Tesla's Bitcoin experiment.
@elonmusk describing money as "avoiding the inconvenience of barter" is a rare case of him misunderstanding the first principles of something utterly important: the history & role of money.
I realize that I'll lose followers over this - but this had to be said.
It is a commonly told story to economics students all over the world: money and coinage was created to replace unwieldy barter. Instead of exchanging goods, people exchanged valuable gold coins.
3/
This is a convenient story that, just like the story Tesla cars being inconvenient & "dirty", is utterly false.
There's literally 𝒛𝒆𝒓𝒐 evidence in the rich archaeological record of humanity suggesting high functioning barter economies who simplified barter with coinage.
Effects on Tesla/TSLA of today's US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
1/
Polls are showing razor thin margins and the results won't be known for days: initially Republican incumbents are likely to lead, because in-person votes are counted first, which votes lean Republican.
2/
But once mail-in votes are counted too we'll know the final result - possibly within the next 2-3 days. The election is still (way) too close to call.
3/
"Conventional wisdom" is that if Democrats win both senate seats and take control of the Senate, then there will be a market-wide selloff, TSLA included, because of more taxes.
Tesla posted a new video about their secret Kato Road 4680 cell production lines a couple of days ago, and it contains a couple of technological gems I haven't seen widely mentioned elsewhere yet, so here's an attempt at listing these new disclosures.
1/
2/
The first thing is that there appear to be no human workers/operators whatsoever in the main production process.
To the left is an image of line workers handling finished cells in a traditional facility. To the right is the 100% automated conveyance system Tesla has.
3/
Here's how their 4680 cells are transported in racks of 8x8 cells: 64 cells each.
These standardized racks likely interface into automated pack production machines, made by Tesla Grohmann, or get directly integrated into the die-cast underbody (structural battery pack).
The idea of an "X" holding company for SpaceX & Tesla was floated by Elon 3.5 years ago already.
With SpaceX valued $60b+ and TSLA valued $600b+, owning X could give retail investors an initial 90% stake in Tesla, 9% stake in SpaceX/Starlink and a 1% stake in Neuralink/Boring.
The initial "value split" between the companies would be determined by the "X" shares issued to existing TSLA, SpaceX and Boring/Neuralink shareholders - subject to shareholder approval of all affected companies.
But after that initial step, owning shares of X means combined ownership of all those companies.
So if say Tesla value rises from $0.6t to $2t, while SpaceX value rises from $0.06t to $1t - ex-TSLA investors will benefit from the combined market cap of $3t - a 50% upside.
The biggest challenge for Apple to compete with Tesla is organizational: right now almost all innovation happens at Apple HQ with annual releases, the hardware supply chain is tightly controlled but low-innovation & low-cost.
This works well for consumer electronics, where owning the latest iPhone is an annual purchase event, and where each new iPhone is designed from scratch.
3/
But Apple's annual 100% redesign cycle is fundamentally incompatible with Tesla's approach, who in an Agile development method has made the entire Tesla factory agile & iterative, where most equipment runs the "Factory OS", part of their iterative R&D effort.
Right now TSLA is following a larger macro drop - the coronavirus-v2 scare that is affecting European markets.
The S&P 500 is down -2.1% - which does not yet include TSLA (will do on the open).
3/
This macro drop creates an arbitrage opportunity for S&P 500 benchmarked funds: The $695 inclusion price on Friday will be the basis for the S&P 500 inclusion, and with ES down -2.1% and TSLA beta 2.0 the 'index fair price' of TSLA right now is $695 lower by -2.1%*2.0: $665.