Why many Tesla investors are frustrated over Tesla's Bitcoin experiment.

@elonmusk describing money as "avoiding the inconvenience of barter" is a rare case of him misunderstanding the first principles of something utterly important: the history & role of money.

A thread.

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I realize that I'll lose followers over this - but this had to be said.

It is a commonly told story to economics students all over the world: money and coinage was created to replace unwieldy barter. Instead of exchanging goods, people exchanged valuable gold coins.
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This is a convenient story that, just like the story Tesla cars being inconvenient & "dirty", is utterly false.

There's literally 𝒛𝒆𝒓𝒐 evidence in the rich archaeological record of humanity suggesting high functioning barter economies who simplified barter with coinage.
4/

There's 𝒛𝒆𝒓𝒐 evidence of human societies having complex barter economies and transitioning to coins/money to replace barter.

Instead, what is present even in the earliest records of human societies with complex production of goods is the idea of 𝒘𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒏 𝒅𝒆𝒃𝒕.
5/

The oldest archeological evidence suspected to be "written debt" are 40,000 years old "bone tally sticks" where each scratch mark denotes "debt owed".

An ancient, written "I Owe You" - an IOU.

"Written debt" is probably an order of magnitude older than the first coins.
6/

Medieval "split tally sticks" were early forms of "cryptographic hash of debt", auditable, centralized debt impossible to counterfeit: a stick was uniquely marked and split in length in two, one half stayed with the Payor, the other with the Payee.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tally_sti…
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Here's historic documentation of tally sticks used by the British Monarchy as IOU: one Tally kept centrally at the Exchequer, another given to the payee.

The uneven surface of the wooden tallies were their "unique hashes" and "tally matching" was used to trade & settle debt.
8/

The "semi-cryptographic hash" of wooden split tallies was used to create new debt & purchase power (money) through the power of taxation of the king - without the use of any extra unique coinage tied to some rare physical resource such as gold.

Which brings us to Bitcoin.
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Unlike the King's or a modern economy's treasury having the 'power of taxation' and issuing new money backed by government spending (~35% of the US GDP), Bitcoin has 𝒏𝒐 internal economy other than the speculative expectation of BTC price going up.
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There's only four Bitcoin transactions every second - while several orders of magnitude higher economic activity in real-world payment systems.

The reason is "Proof of Work": a single Bitcoin transaction takes more energy to verify than to charge a Model 3 to 300 miles. (!)
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Bitcoin PoW wastes stupendous amounts of energy - below is one of the coal power plants in China powering Bitcoin mining rigs...

This pointless waste of energy in the BTC network is the result of the design mistakes & political leanings of the early developers of Bitcoin.
12/

Bitcoin is not a "slightly less bullshit" version of fiat money, because real money is a collection of real IOUs and tax payments that anchor the strength of a currency.

It is the balance of taxes owed vs. government spending that give "fiat money" strength - or weakness.
13/

Just like Tesla's FSD training data isn't just "bullshit" records in Tesla's storage system, the U.S. dollar isn't just "bullshit" computer records at the central bank.

There's very little "fiat" about the strength of the dollar - it's a real-world economic property.
14/

In the simplest terms the strength of the U.S. dollar represents future cash flows of the U.S. economy: the combined power of trillions of dollars worth of "I Owe You" split tally sticks.

There's no "belief" behind the value of currencies:

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W006RC1…
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There's no underlying gold reserves giving the dollar its strength - it's the US economy and the underlying future written obligations (debt, taxes) that makes it useful and valuable.

Just like "fiat" TSLA shares represent future Tesla cash flows - with no gold reserves.
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And for this reason it's borderline insulting to call fiat money "bullshit" & put it in the same sentence as a poorly designed crypto currency that is wasting a medium sized country's electricity supply just to run & is heating our planet under make-believe fantasies ...
17/

Distributed crypto blockchains in themselves are in no way evil, they are useful tools: one of the oldest Merkle Tree crypto hash data structures, the Linux Kernel Git tree, is a prototypical audited, distributed crypto hash - and it predates Bitcoin by ~half a decade.
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I support Tesla using blockchains: Tesla should create their 𝒐𝒘𝒏 cryptocurrency - backed by the name recognition of Elon Musk.

MarsCoin, TeslaCoin, XCoin or GreenCoin: the power is in the name recognition of Elon & its economic relevance.

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And this is why Tesla investors who understand both blockchains and monetary systems are so frustrated with Tesla's and @elonmusk's crypto experiments: Bitcoin has very few of the characteristics of real currencies and all the characteristics of speculative bubbles.

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More from @truth_tesla

19 Feb
I have Gbit fiber Internet, yet I pre-ordered Starlink:

✅ Planned speeds 1-10 GBit/sec
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✅ To support SpaceX
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Especially the "Starlink cells are a first-come-first-served limited resource" is poorly understood.

Starlink receiver's high-tech phased array antennas, consisting of ~600 ASICs, allow very tight radio beams - but beam size is still a few kilometers wide on the ground.
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This physical property puts an upper limit on the number of subscribers per Starlink cell.

Each Starlink cell is roughy 4km × 4km currently, which suggests a beam size of 2-4 km.
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5 Jan
Effects on Tesla/TSLA of today's US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

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Polls are showing razor thin margins and the results won't be known for days: initially Republican incumbents are likely to lead, because in-person votes are counted first, which votes lean Republican.
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"Conventional wisdom" is that if Democrats win both senate seats and take control of the Senate, then there will be a market-wide selloff, TSLA included, because of more taxes.

I believe those expectations are incorrect.
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30 Dec 20
Tesla posted a new video about their secret Kato Road 4680 cell production lines a couple of days ago, and it contains a couple of technological gems I haven't seen widely mentioned elsewhere yet, so here's an attempt at listing these new disclosures.

1/
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The first thing is that there appear to be no human workers/operators whatsoever in the main production process.

To the left is an image of line workers handling finished cells in a traditional facility. To the right is the 100% automated conveyance system Tesla has.
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These standardized racks likely interface into automated pack production machines, made by Tesla Grohmann, or get directly integrated into the die-cast underbody (structural battery pack).
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29 Dec 20
The idea of an "X" holding company for SpaceX & Tesla was floated by Elon 3.5 years ago already.

With SpaceX valued $60b+ and TSLA valued $600b+, owning X could give retail investors an initial 90% stake in Tesla, 9% stake in SpaceX/Starlink and a 1% stake in Neuralink/Boring.
The initial "value split" between the companies would be determined by the "X" shares issued to existing TSLA, SpaceX and Boring/Neuralink shareholders - subject to shareholder approval of all affected companies.
But after that initial step, owning shares of X means combined ownership of all those companies.

So if say Tesla value rises from $0.6t to $2t, while SpaceX value rises from $0.06t to $1t - ex-TSLA investors will benefit from the combined market cap of $3t - a 50% upside.
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22 Dec 20
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The biggest challenge for Apple to compete with Tesla is organizational: right now almost all innovation happens at Apple HQ with annual releases, the hardware supply chain is tightly controlled but low-innovation & low-cost.
2/

This works well for consumer electronics, where owning the latest iPhone is an annual purchase event, and where each new iPhone is designed from scratch.
3/

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21 Dec 20
Update: SPY has updated their TSLA weight to 1.69%, which means 3 of the largest S&P 500 passive index funds are done with their TSLA rebalance.

1/

It still remains to be seen whether the large after-hours seller on Friday was a genuine TSLA long, or a tactical short-seller.
2/

Right now TSLA is following a larger macro drop - the coronavirus-v2 scare that is affecting European markets.

The S&P 500 is down -2.1% - which does not yet include TSLA (will do on the open).
3/

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