A funny story & a cautionary tale on the shortcomings of the banking union.

Nordea is the biggest Swedish bank - which is not in the banking union.

At one point, they decided that they were not happy with Swedish supervision (too conservative) and they moved their HQ to Finland
Of course, they didn't say it, but they were hoping for substantial capital relief by using SSM rules instead of Riskbank rules.

But you see, the trick is that under the maze of EU rules, supervisors are in charge of Pillar 1 & Pillar capital requirements...
BUT not of macro-prudential capital requirements!

So the Finnish authority, not the SSM, is in charge of macro-ppu in Finland. Amusingly, they decided to apply to *Swedish mortgages* owned by *Finnish banks* the same risk weight as applied by the Swedish Riskbank!
(But only if the book size is above 5bnSEK - if you have the impression this was designed only for Nordea you might be correct.)

This will reduce Nordea's CET1 ratio by 90bps.
But the real lesson here is that it so funny that by escaping the Riskbank for the SSM, Nordea ended applying Riskbank rules decided by the Finnish authority.

Yeah, the banking union works so well
@nicolas_veron tu vas adorer
Sorry guys, Riksbank, of course, not Riskbank !

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More from @jeuasommenulle

19 Feb
Here it is !

A thread on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) because I think it’s both extremely important and poorly understood.

Simple questions I want to answer are

i)What’s the point?
ii)How do they work?
iii)Is there a risk for banks?

Sorry, it's a bit long.
First, the reasons for CBDC.

You can have a look at the mega thread I started a few weeks ago with @BCoeure stepping in. But it’s hard to digest, so let me summarize the rationale for CBDC (and my views).

I’ll mention official and non-official reasons.
Reason#1: costs.

Real cash (banknotes & coins) is expensive. Estimates vary from 0.2% to 0.7% of GDP, depending on the methodology, country, etc

But electronic payments are also expensive – and cards payments even more. Will CBDC be cheaper? I suspect it depends on country.
Read 60 tweets
3 Feb
I wanted to wait for a few Spanish banks to report b4 sharing something intriguing. By now, you all know that the name of the game in EU banking is that there are simply no new NPLs because everything is deferred (government schemes, payment holidays). But is that always true?
And we all want to know what’s going to happen when reality kicks in. Interestingly, there’s one Spanish bank which apparently decided to stop pretending. If you take a casual look at it, you won’t see anything, because their NPL ratio hasn’t moved much - it's even going down
But that’ only because they did a big sale. The gross NPL entries are far more interesting - those are the real new default/NPL. And we can the first big jump since Covid.

That's a +125% rise over the past 6 quarters average.
Read 8 tweets
1 Feb
The ESRB & the @EBA_News published their macro scenario for the upcoming bank stress test. What does it look like? Will it finally be credible? And how important will the results be? A thread
Those are important questions, because investors have shrugged the results of the previous tests. Except for distressed banks (e.g. MPS), the results were almost useless – even the EU court of auditors heavily criticized the process.
One criticism often made is that the tests are not severe enough. The comparison with US/UK tests illustrates this (CET1 drawdowns). Of course, there can be good reasons for differences, and u can’t make a stress knowing the outcome you want…but it’s still dubious Image
Read 14 tweets
28 Jan
A thread on the German data on the efficiency of the AstraZeneca vaccine because I’m reading a lot of VERY bad takes. Is there any kind of statistical significance on the 6.9% efficiency? Is it total crap? It’s not that simple as I’ll try to show.
First of all, forget the absurd “Confidence interval” – it’s useless and based on assumptions that are almost by definition false. So let’s look at this problem differently.
The basic data is this 5829 ppl in the control group, 5807 in the vaccine group, of which 319 and 341 above 65. But the major problem is this: the control group had only case over 65 (101 in total). What is the implication of this surprising number?
Read 18 tweets
27 Jan
Paul has a funny question, so let's look at the epic short squeezes and artificial market cap created. You're in for a few surprises. 1st, we're all talking about GameStop.

Chart is for Frankfurt trading. Mkt Cap 15bn€, so +14.7bn€ since the meteoric rise.

BUT there's better!
Some of you probably remember the epic Volskwagen short squeeze created by Porsche. Full story there
ft.com/content/0a58b6…

Nice chart, hey ! Price at 714€, that's 269bn€ created ! WOW.

But there is BETTER
And now we turn to my favorite babies, EU banks. Meet Bankia: it was put into "resolution" and hybrids converted 2 equity b4 the IPO. For some reason there was a massive short squeeze before hybrids could sell.
From 140 to 1.3 that's 428bn€ of paper money!
But there's BETTER
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
*BREAKING:

"BREAK THIS SELL WALL AND COME FOR THE BROTHERS LOST IN THE 150TH AUTISMO BATTALLION. ONWARDS WE MARCH, IN THE NAME OF MUSK AND TENDIES WE MARCH"
BREAKING:

"I CAN REMAIN RETARDED LONGER THAN MELVIN CAN STAY SOLVENT."
BREAKING

"Every time they force a halt they lose money. Every time they force a halt I place another buy order."
Read 4 tweets

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