📊1.4M doses today; 7-day avg=1.49M/day
🇺🇸US: 60.5M doses total

❄️⚡️We continue to see BIG impact from the storms.

🧵below on a *major* methodological change at CDC that affects our totals tonight

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid… Image
⚠️First, CDC's method change (this is important)

1/ As of this afternoon, CDC is assigning doses given to people in federal entities TO the states where they reside. This significantly affects the CDC's state totals in a way that makes them harder to compare to state dashboards
2/ This amounts to about 3 million doses. This makes it much harder for us to compare what states report to what CDC reports, which is a big part of our model. (Federal entity numbers are not typically included in state-reported vaccine tallies.)
3/ 🚨Because of that, we are NOT including CDC's update in tonight's report. This artificially depresses the overall number today, which would be higher IF we had an accurate apples-to-apples comparison.
4/ Our general preference is to be conservative when we need further clarity on a number or report. We worried that there was high risk of data errors and over-count if we included the figures tonight, and we're working to figure out how we resolve this as quickly as possible.
5/ Summary: The numbers seem low. They're actually higher, but there's data confusion we need to resolve to show that. We didn't want to break/mis-report something. Bear with us.

So how bad is the impact of the winter storms on vaccinations? It's significant. Twice this week, Texas cut its number of reported vaccinations by 110,000 doses, more than an 80% haircut.

Blog post on Texas here: bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…
Here's a chart from earlier today showing the hit to the Texas totals -- it's enough to bend the broader U.S. rate curve downward: Image
🚀And, finally, I wrote yesterday about how more vaccine doses are on the way. Today Pfizer confirmed parts of our model -- they're ramping up deliveries.

☝️Actual last thing. CDC may make *another* methodological change tonight that will have a significant impact on state numbers. So, buckle up.

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More from @ArmstrongDrew

21 Feb

📊1.8M doses today; 7-day average=1.33M/day
🇺🇸US: 63.1M doses total

⚠️Please note our methodological change in the post below! The U.S. rate weirdness is b/c of a significant data switch.
bloomberg.com/graphics/covid… Image
Please read this post on our methodology change, and some very significant changes to how CDC is reporting data:

Also, uh, this happened and we still don't know what it is...

Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
💉VACCINE DATA (methodology) UPDATE⚠️

We have our usual update coming later tonight, and I'll thread it here. But in the meantime we have a very important methodology update about how we get data + count doses.

Short version: CDC made major changes in how they attribute doses to states, in a way that makes their data non-comparable with state-produced data. Unless something changed, we will be using CDC data for the U.S. going forward. Read the details here:

There are upsides and downsides to this change.

Upside: It places Defense Dept. vaccinations in the place where people reside. That's important -- the 1918 flu is thought to have started in a military base in Kansas. These federal categories aren't abstract.
Read 9 tweets
17 Feb
💉Along with how many vaccines are getting administered, a major question is WHO is getting vaccinated.

Today our team launched a demographics vertical, looking at vaccine breakdowns by race/ethnicity in various states. It's awesome--check it out

You can see how various groups are getting vaccinated vs their populations. Black and Hispanic populations are being vaccinated below their population shares, while some groups are getting vaccinated above.

Because many states don't report the data, on don't have great data completeness, we've integrated state-by-state data quality rankings -- you can explore them here:
Read 6 tweets
16 Feb

📈1.5M doses today; 7-day avg=1.67M/day
🇺🇸US: 56.1M doses total
👪40.2M people w/ at least 1 dose, 15.6M completed vaccination

❄️Cold in Texas/elsewhere likely pushed daily rate down
⚠️CDC updated today after not yday

New cases in the U.S. continue to fall after the holiday surge. This chart plots total vaccinations vs confirmed cases. More vaccine = more impact on driving down new cases. The leveling off there is (probably mostly) from post-holiday decline.

Our full graphic and data, including our international maps and graphics, are available here.

Read 4 tweets
11 Feb

🚀Big number day
🧵See thread link below about vaccine deals for 200M doses; good news on supply

📈2M doses today; 7-day avg=1.62M/day
🇺🇸US: 48M doses total
🧑‍🤝‍🧑35.7M people w/ at least 1 dose,🏅11.9M completed vaccination

200 million more doses coming to the U.S. -- these deals are a big deal

Read 5 tweets
11 Feb
💉The U.S. has just announced deals for 200M more vaccine doses (100M Pfizer, 100M Moderna) for delivery by end of July.

🚀The U.S. has now climbed our ranking of vaccine deals, with more vaccine per capita arranged for than all but four other countries

Here's our table of vaccine deals -- the U.S. now has a TON of vaccine inbound. It's also received more vaccine faster than many other countries with deals for cleared vaccines -- Canada got briefly cut off, more or less, amid a supply interruption

Read 4 tweets

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