We have our usual update coming later tonight, and I'll thread it here. But in the meantime we have a very important methodology update about how we get data + count doses.
Short version: CDC made major changes in how they attribute doses to states, in a way that makes their data non-comparable with state-produced data. Unless something changed, we will be using CDC data for the U.S. going forward. Read the details here:
Upside: It places Defense Dept. vaccinations in the place where people reside. That's important -- the 1918 flu is thought to have started in a military base in Kansas. These federal categories aren't abstract.
Downsides: We can't compare with states. People are assigned by the CDC to their *permanent* residence, not where they got vaccinated. And it's a big methodological change that screws up everyone's time-series data.
We've already heard from one state confused by this, since their dashboard number will always be lower than CDC's, since they don't capture federal entities. This may create confusion for people who look at trackers like ours, the CDC's and what states report.
Please read the full post for an explanation. We'll have our data out here soon.
1/ As of this afternoon, CDC is assigning doses given to people in federal entities TO the states where they reside. This significantly affects the CDC's state totals in a way that makes them harder to compare to state dashboards
2/ This amounts to about 3 million doses. This makes it much harder for us to compare what states report to what CDC reports, which is a big part of our model. (Federal entity numbers are not typically included in state-reported vaccine tallies.)
You can see how various groups are getting vaccinated vs their populations. Black and Hispanic populations are being vaccinated below their population shares, while some groups are getting vaccinated above.
Because many states don't report the data, on don't have great data completeness, we've integrated state-by-state data quality rankings -- you can explore them here: bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
New cases in the U.S. continue to fall after the holiday surge. This chart plots total vaccinations vs confirmed cases. More vaccine = more impact on driving down new cases. The leveling off there is (probably mostly) from post-holiday decline.
Here's our table of vaccine deals -- the U.S. now has a TON of vaccine inbound. It's also received more vaccine faster than many other countries with deals for cleared vaccines -- Canada got briefly cut off, more or less, amid a supply interruption