Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5 - Canada – Feb 20 to Feb 26 –
The #COVID19 epidemic situation is slowly improving in most provinces/territories which are close to reach their safety zones.
Forecasting for 13 Provinces/Territories:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/5 - Quebec is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.88), close to reach it, with medium to low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/5 - Ontario is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), very close to reach it, decreasing in mortality too at medium levels, for 7 more days.

4/5 - Saskatchewan is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.84), at medium levels, decreasing in mortality too from low to very low levels, for 7 more days.

5/5 - British Columbia will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.96), just above its safety zone, with medium to low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/5 –
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100...

7/5 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0