2/22 - Norway (and Finland), two European champions in fighting #COVID19 are currently facing strong pressure from the epidemic, both rising in incidence, and leaving their safety zone, R-eff respectively=1.11 (and 1.12), with still very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/22. Portugal is rapidly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.51), can be reached by mid-week, at this pace, and decreasing in mortality, from very high to high - by mid-week too - levels, in the 7 upcoming days.
4/22. The UK is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality too, from very high to high - by mid-week - levels, in the 7 upcoming days.
>20% of its population vaccinated so far.
5/22. Ireland is much too slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), still at medium level of activity, and plateauing in mortality, at very high levels, for 7 more days.
6/22. Germany has stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.98), just above it, while decreasing in mortality although at high levels, for 7 more days.
7/22. Italy (and France) are both plateauing at high levels in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (both R-eff=1.01), since December, while decreasing in mortality, although still at high levels, for 7 more days.
NOTE: Irregular reporting from France to JHU databases.
8/22. Czechia is experiencing a rise at very high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.12), since early February, increasing in mortality too, at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
9/22. Poland is experiencing a rise at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.15), since early February, while decreasing in mortality, from very high to high - by mid-week - levels, in the 7 upcoming days.
10/22. Hungary is experiencing a surge at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.21), since early February, increasing in mortality too, at very high levels, for 7 more days.
11/22. Tunisia is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.84), can be reached next weekend at same pace, decreasing in mortality from high to medium - by mid-week - levels, in the 7 upcoming days.
12/22. South Africa has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and will stay in it (R-eff=0.79), decreasing in mortality at medium levels, for 7 more days.
13/22. Namibia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), at medium levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
14/22. Jordan is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.23), at high levels, increasing in mortality too, at medium levels, for 7 more days.
15/22. Russia is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.92), close to reach it, while plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.
16/22. Vietnam (and Thailand), two Asian champions in fighting #COVID19, will both remain in their safety zone - new cases<1 case/100Kpop./day - with no foreseen deaths (or very low mortality), in the 7 upcoming days.
17/22. Japan (and South Korea), two other Asian champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone - new cases < (or close) to 1/100Kpop./day - with low (or very low) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
18/22. Canada is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), very close to reach it, and is decreasing in mortality, from medium to low - by next mid-week - levels, for 7 more d.
19/22. The USA are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.81), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.
20/22. Brazil is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), and plateauing in mortality at high levels too, for 7 more days.
21/22. Argentina is plateauing at medium levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.95), plateauing in mortality too, at high levels, for 7 more days.
22/22. Australia (and New Zealand), two Pacific champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone with no expected death, for 7 more days.
23/22.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop 4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following: @KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
...
24/22.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/9 - “Deaths in Mexico last year were 52% higher than in previous yes, putting the rate of excess deaths during the #COVID19 pandemic well above that in some countries seen as suffering the worst outbreaks in the world, including the US, UK and Brazil.”ft.com/content/44a1f0…
2/9 - “New official data showed Mexico has registered 977,081 deaths since Mar 2020, compared with an expected 641,556 for the same period based on the 2015-19 death tolls. Since the start of the epidemic, Mexico has more than 2m cases and almost 180,000 deaths from #COVID19.”
3/9 - “Total excess deaths per million in Mexico last year were 2,602 — 52% higher than 1,713 in the US, 75% higher than the UK, and 100% than Brazil’s 1,047, Eugenio Sánchez, a Mexican statistician who has examined world mortality data compiled by Israeli economist A Karlinsky.”
1/7 - “The #COVID19 vaccine made by BioNTech and Pfizer has been highly effective at preventing infection in Israel, according to the first real-world data showing that vaccination stops transmission of the virus.” ft.com/content/2626ec…
2/7 - “The results gathered by Israel’s health ministry [...] showed that the vaccine was 89 per cent effective at preventing infection of any kind and 94 per cent effective against symptomatic infection.”
3/7 - “The new data — which has not yet been peer reviewed — provide the first real-world demonstration of the vaccine’s effectiveness and offers hope that those immunised will also help to stem the spread of infection.”
2/22 - Norway (and Finland), two European champions in fighting #COVID19 are currently facing the pressure of the epidemic, either increasing (or plateauing) just above of their safety zone, R-eff respectively=1.09 (and 1.02), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/22. Portugal is rapidly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.55), can be reached next weekend, at this pace, and decreasing in mortality, from very high to high - by the weekend too - levels, for 7 more days.
2/8 - Valais is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.75), close to reach it, plateauing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
3/8 - Geneva is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), at medium levels of activity, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.
1/10 - USA. Feb 20 to Feb 26 -
The #COVID19 situation is improving in many states, being close to their safety zone, with decreasing mortality although still at very high or high levels.
9 states detailed in: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/10 - Massachusetts will be landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.83), from high to medium - by early next week - levels of activity, decreasing in mortality too, from very high to high - by mid-week - levels, in the 7 upcoming days.
3/10 - Vermont will be plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
2/5 - Quebec is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.88), close to reach it, with medium to low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/5 - Ontario is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), very close to reach it, decreasing in mortality too at medium levels, for 7 more days.