I’m thinking that “climate deniers” should also refer to people who deny variability in climate
As “climate” has evolved to mean a cause of events we have lost its true meaning, the statistics of weather over decades and longer
And those statistics vary on all timescales
The Texas story is NOT that infrastructure built for a past climate is suddenly out of its zone
It’s that the infrastructure built for documented climate variability is not fit for purpose
Blaming climate change is both wrong & ignores the real culprit: poor decision making
Back in the day I wrote about how the gerrymandered definition of climate change used in policy (not by the IPCC) to ignore variability was a problem — it is still a problem, arguably worse
TL;DR
Here is the key paragraph
If all we care about is change to the statistics of weather caused by human interference, then we will miss most of what matters in building resilient societies to variability AND change
Where does 2011 sit in terms of recent history?
EIA has heating degree days for "West South Central" US (TX, OK, AR, LA)
Turns out 2011 ranks 24th most HDD for the region since 1973
2011 was not a "worst case" -- not even close
Source: eia.gov/energyexplaine…
Fatal flaw 2
AIR cites GFDL CMIP5/RCP4.5 to justify projected 35% increase in Cat 4/5 by 2050 doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
But GFDL actually says 35% increase in Cat 4/5 hurr days, not frequency w/ only increase in freq is in NE Pacific & globally -18% total hurricanes (table below)
🧵Good news and bad news on the Biden Administration's efforts to consider a "social cost of carbon" via an Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Good news
The IWG is (apparently, for now) employing a methodology that does not use the RCPs or SSPs nap.edu/catalog/24651/…
Bad news
The methodology of the IWG employs scenarios that are more out-of-date than the RCPs/SSPs -- selected from the EMF-22 scenarios nap.edu/catalog/24651/…
With these assumptions "cannot exclude" SLR of 1.24m in 2100
2⃣
Here would be an equally appropriate statement from the same research:
"If the real world behaves as simulated with CanESM5 (highest EffCS of CMIP6: 5.62 K), we can exclude a GMSL rise of >0.82 m for SSP2-RCP4.5 with more than 95% confidence based on IPCC AR5 methods"
3⃣
Worst case scenarios are only worst case scenarios if they exist within an envelope of plausibility
When falling outside that envelope they cease to be worst case scenarios & instead become fictional -- detached from reality
Climate science continues to have a RCP8.5 problem
Very important new preprint (in 2nd round of review at a Nature journal) by array of leading TC researchers on (lack of) 1851-2019 Atlantic hurricane trends researchsquare.com/article/rs-153…
Quote below on US landfalls ...
Remarkable
1970s and 1980s may have been the least active period for hurricanes in the Atlantic in centuries
Is climate change causing a reduction in US hurricanes?
Maybe