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22 Feb, 9 tweets, 4 min read
Even though January 8th is the peak for the US as a whole, there have actually been three peaks across the states: Nov. 20th, Dec 15th, and January 12th. (-+ a week to all).

Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
The reason why January peak is the US peak is because all the other states peaking earlier were either declining or had a second peak in January.

Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
However, many states actually had multiple peaks. Even when this happened, their peaks happened on one of the three dates. See the examples below.

I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
If it was travel, peaks would happen after Thanksgiving and Christmas, not before. Also, it would be the same across the US, since I am sure all states celebrate the same holidays.

States that peaked in November in the map below (blue). (4/x)
I actually think seasonality is very strong, but likely a combination of several factors, including temp, humidity, and some other factors not yet discovered.

I don't believe AK and TN share the same climate, but they both peaked around the same time.

December peak below. (5/x)
Surprised? Wait for it: Even Alaska and Hawaii share one of these three dates. Hawaii is January and Alaska is December.

Arguing that behavior change caused all these states peak at the same time is as absurd as it gets.

January peak below. (6/x)
We would all benefit if, our scientists stopped embarrassing themselves with laughable explanations for the decline, but actually tried to discover what is driving these peaks.

A better understanding of this would guide sensible policy-making. (7/x)

And of course:


And, regarding testing fluctuations around holidays causing triple-peaks:

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More from @covidtweets

21 Feb
I am still waiting to see one convincing explanation for the current decline in cases that does not involve seasonality.

Most epis say people began taking more precautions. When I ask for any evidence or how everyone suddenly started behaving at the same time?

Crickets... (1/4)
A decent number mention immunity build-up with many people now infected or vaccinated, which is definitely a factor, but still not enough by itself.

That would mean prior infection rates are the same everywhere. Are you ready to admit that to be the case between GA and CA? (2/4)
Seriously, I am desperately looking for one even remotely plausible explanation. If it is not seasonality, then what?

Epis have great faith in that we are in control. But this is really nothing more than "faith" at this time, since the evidence is non-existent. (3/4)
Read 5 tweets
14 Feb
Watch the pathetic responses (actually lack thereof) by @CDCDirector to the very good questions by @jaketapper

It is clear that she does not believe in what she is saying. If that is the case, please resign @CDCDirector . Don't facilitate the kids being held hostage... (1/x)
She says when there are cases in school:

1. It is from the community,
2. It does not get transmitted to others in schools,

So those cases will happen anyway and will not spread further in a school.

Why on earth are the school closed then?!!! (2/x)
There has been a lot of stupidity in the past year. Most were because of fear. This is different.

This is happening only because of political pressure by unions, and the damage is way deeper than any other stupid policy we have endured over the past year... (3/x)
Read 7 tweets
14 Feb
Cases are dropping faster than they ever have since the beginning of the pandemic, currently at a rate of around 3.5% per day.

In addition, the current drop is the longest consistent decline since the beginning.

But, the variant... (1/5)
It has been almost two months since Slavitt said we actually had the variant spreading but we were not testing for it. Almost four weeks since Topol said 4th surge was coming.

If this new variant is actually this big of a deal, I think we would have seen it by now. (2/5)
This chart shows the smoothened curve of % change in moving average (MA). Anytime it is 0+, it means MA of cases is increasing, and below zero means decreasing. The bigger the value, the faster the change.

MA is dropping since early January at an accelerating pace. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
7 Feb
Epidemiologists trying to understand why cases are falling.

Exhibits in the following tweets...
Read 17 tweets
6 Feb
A while back I tweeted that the only model that would explain observed pandemic curves was the virus going airborne under certain weather conditions.

I also tweeted that I believed the majority of transmission was likely via air. (1/x)
Now a study examining fluid dynamics of virus-carrying droplets finds exactly that. There are specific favorable temp/humidity conditions.

Furthermore, it applies the weather variables and predicts second waves with much better accuracy than most other models. (2/x)
"The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are more likely a natural phenomenon that is directly related to the weather seasonality during a pandemic evolution. The above puts in question large scale, strict lockdowns..." (3/x)
Read 6 tweets
5 Jan
Most people opposing lockdowns are not "pandemic deniers".

We are "COVID monomania" deniers.

This is not the first time a pandemic is happening. This is the first time we are responding like this.

Everything we do are knee-jerk reactions. Nothing is based in science. (1/x)
We rush to close schools, without considering the possibility that it might actually increase transmission via kids mixing in different groups, or cause transmission to vulnerable grandparents.

We keep the schools closed despite the massive harm it will cause on our kids. (2/x)
We mandate masks almost as a talisman, without considering the possibility that they may increase aerosol transmission or give people a false sense of safety.

We keep the mandates in place despite zero evidence they are making a difference. (3/x)

Read 6 tweets

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