Even though January 8th is the peak for the US as a whole, there have actually been three peaks across the states: Nov. 20th, Dec 15th, and January 12th. (-+ a week to all).
Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
The reason why January peak is the US peak is because all the other states peaking earlier were either declining or had a second peak in January.
Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
However, many states actually had multiple peaks. Even when this happened, their peaks happened on one of the three dates. See the examples below.
I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
If it was travel, peaks would happen after Thanksgiving and Christmas, not before. Also, it would be the same across the US, since I am sure all states celebrate the same holidays.
States that peaked in November in the map below (blue). (4/x)
States that peaked in November in the map below (blue). (4/x)
I actually think seasonality is very strong, but likely a combination of several factors, including temp, humidity, and some other factors not yet discovered.
I don't believe AK and TN share the same climate, but they both peaked around the same time.
December peak below. (5/x)
I don't believe AK and TN share the same climate, but they both peaked around the same time.
December peak below. (5/x)
Surprised? Wait for it: Even Alaska and Hawaii share one of these three dates. Hawaii is January and Alaska is December.
Arguing that behavior change caused all these states peak at the same time is as absurd as it gets.
January peak below. (6/x)
Arguing that behavior change caused all these states peak at the same time is as absurd as it gets.
January peak below. (6/x)
We would all benefit if, our scientists stopped embarrassing themselves with laughable explanations for the decline, but actually tried to discover what is driving these peaks.
A better understanding of this would guide sensible policy-making. (7/x)
A better understanding of this would guide sensible policy-making. (7/x)
https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1358272121462546433?s=20
And, regarding testing fluctuations around holidays causing triple-peaks:
https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1363836340933165057?s=19
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