Reminds us that UK=/= US, that both saw hhld income rise in Q320 vs Q420, but stimi cheques to those w/out savings in US did a better job or boosting spending
Infers that supply shocks that lead to price shocks *might* be a thing...
But price shocks =/= inflation with this sort of chart lurking
This is Vlieghe arguing Economic crisis = Jump in govt deficit = Need for a speedy monetary response! But that this does *not* mean BoE is under the thumb!
Last, Vlieghe's reckoning on BoE rates for 3 scenarios: 1) wealth is spent & output gap v quickly filled & overflows, BoE waits for more proof; 2) BoE guidance; 3) virus lingers as RoW doesn't open up, furloughed workers don't seemlessly reintegrate.
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I’ve been wary of ‘coulda woulda shoulda’ armchair critics of govt strategy around COVID19 using 20:20 hindsight. This @thetimes piece is *very different* & worth a read. 1/n
It describes the trade-offs that ministers facing between excess COVID19 deaths & reopening the country as *impossible* 2/n
The prospect of “trading-off” deaths of some against liberties of others (economic, social) sounds pretty awful. But isn’t this what govts do everyday? 3/n
I’m no epidemiologist & have no insight on COVID-19 unknowables. Like many (all) I have to deal with its potential impact on my particular corner of the world. 1/n
Helpfully, the UK has outlined its approach to a reasonable worst case scenario, which is 50% infection of a new virus with 2.5% mortality rate (untreated) 2/n assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
50% infection w/ 2.5% mortality sounds like a pretty horrific scenario. Best guess as to coronavirus mortality rate seems today to be c2%, but evolving? 3/n worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Yes, everyone is fed up with Brexit takes. But this week had a convo with a US friend still confused as to what the hell is going on and why. This analogy seemed to help. You’ll *hate* it.
No American I know has much love for the IRS, regardless of political affiliation. But imagine there was a referendum that proposed *abolishing* it.
Abolitionists might include folks of many affiliations: Ultra-small state zealots; uberwealthy; Leftist reckoning *major* tax reform easiest starting w/ blank sheet; folks pissed off w/ IRS; folks reckon they pay more than their share in tax.