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Toby Nangle Profile picture
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22 Feb, 8 tweets, 3 min read
I'm going to miss Vlieghe's speeches when his term ends this summer! Just catching up on Friday's. bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
UK hhld savings rose for most but not all. Are they pent-up income (high demand) or increased wealth (low demand)?
Vlieghe sides with @BoE_Research on this point
Reminds us that UK=/= US, that both saw hhld income rise in Q320 vs Q420, but stimi cheques to those w/out savings in US did a better job or boosting spending
Infers that supply shocks that lead to price shocks *might* be a thing...
But price shocks =/= inflation with this sort of chart lurking
This is Vlieghe arguing Economic crisis = Jump in govt deficit = Need for a speedy monetary response! But that this does *not* mean BoE is under the thumb!
Last, Vlieghe's reckoning on BoE rates for 3 scenarios: 1) wealth is spent & output gap v quickly filled & overflows, BoE waits for more proof; 2) BoE guidance; 3) virus lingers as RoW doesn't open up, furloughed workers don't seemlessly reintegrate.

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More from @toby_n

Toby Nangle Profile picture
22 Feb
Really interesting to hear what govt ministers think foreign language teaching is for.
Here's the top 10 languages spoken in the world:
Here is UK exports ranked by top three countries in which a language is natively spoken:
Read 6 tweets
Toby Nangle Profile picture
7 Oct 20
The new RF intergenerational report is out! Quick chart thread. resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/20…
COVID has really hit older people hard. Under 45s experienced no jump in excess deaths; it has all come from older cohorts. 2/n
So you can see why older people are really down about things. Younger people also seem down. What’s that about? 3/n
Read 11 tweets
Toby Nangle Profile picture
19 Apr 20
I’ve been wary of ‘coulda woulda shoulda’ armchair critics of govt strategy around COVID19 using 20:20 hindsight. This @thetimes piece is *very different* & worth a read. 1/n
UK govt said readiness was good. It was poor. It had been smashed by years of austerity policies. 2/n
This was known in govt and surfaced in a 2016 pandemic exercise. Still, nothing done to fix. 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Toby Nangle Profile picture
18 Apr 20
Really interesting article that I have already RT’d but there’s a thing that bugs me about it 1/n
It describes the trade-offs that ministers facing between excess COVID19 deaths & reopening the country as *impossible* 2/n
The prospect of “trading-off” deaths of some against liberties of others (economic, social) sounds pretty awful. But isn’t this what govts do everyday? 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Toby Nangle Profile picture
27 Feb 20
I’m no epidemiologist & have no insight on COVID-19 unknowables. Like many (all) I have to deal with its potential impact on my particular corner of the world. 1/n
Helpfully, the UK has outlined its approach to a reasonable worst case scenario, which is 50% infection of a new virus with 2.5% mortality rate (untreated) 2/n assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
50% infection w/ 2.5% mortality sounds like a pretty horrific scenario. Best guess as to coronavirus mortality rate seems today to be c2%, but evolving? 3/n worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Read 15 tweets
Toby Nangle Profile picture
5 Oct 19
Yes, everyone is fed up with Brexit takes. But this week had a convo with a US friend still confused as to what the hell is going on and why. This analogy seemed to help. You’ll *hate* it.
No American I know has much love for the IRS, regardless of political affiliation. But imagine there was a referendum that proposed *abolishing* it.
Abolitionists might include folks of many affiliations: Ultra-small state zealots; uberwealthy; Leftist reckoning *major* tax reform easiest starting w/ blank sheet; folks pissed off w/ IRS; folks reckon they pay more than their share in tax.
Read 7 tweets

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