I’m no epidemiologist & have no insight on COVID-19 unknowables. Like many (all) I have to deal with its potential impact on my particular corner of the world. 1/n
Helpfully, the UK has outlined its approach to a reasonable worst case scenario, which is 50% infection of a new virus with 2.5% mortality rate (untreated) 2/n assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
50% infection w/ 2.5% mortality sounds like a pretty horrific scenario. Best guess as to coronavirus mortality rate seems today to be c2%, but evolving? 3/n worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Coronavirus death rate hugely unevenly spread according to early study 4/n
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Finl mkts are in the grip of digesting the possibility of this reasonable worst case scenario (or worse). Why no greater panic from govt? Perhaps because this has been contemplated for decades. 5/n
Shut the airports? Not clear that this buys anything more than a few weeks. 6/n
Close down the tube and cancel public gatherings? Not supported by the evidence. 7/n
Shut the schools? Yes, this might help. 8/n
Will wearing a face mask help me? Unlikely, but might protect others from me (no bad thing). 9/n
The outline around how health authorities has to be read rather than tl;dr’d. But this sort of thing 10/n
How about the rest of us? Will we all be told to work from home? Maybe if we can, but generally, no.
It’s Keep Calm and Carry On 11/n
It’s Keep Calm and Carry On 11/n
What does a 50% infection rate even mean for you and me? In terms of absence from work, maybe this: 12/n
What can we actually do to halt the spread? Probably nothing. 13/n
OK, what can we do to reduce the likelihood of high infection rate before a vaccine is developed? Wash our hands! 14/n
Anyway, many thanks to @jkempenergy for his excellent piece about learning to live with a Pandemic that pointed me to the UK document.
