Thread by @YossiGestetner

When it comes to counting COVID-19 deaths, some people count the given number of deaths plus the excess deaths; meaning, the amount of deaths the US had over the last year which exceeded the expectation. They say that those added deaths are undercounted COVID-19 deaths.

But using their logic, if not for COVID-19 the US death count would have dropped by a few hundred thousand last year compared to previous years. I mean, if excess deaths are COVID-19, then anything below excess is not COVID-19. That’s the statistical sound way of looking at it.

I’ll explain.

Say that in a typical year, 3 million die in the US.

Now say that 3.2 mill died last year including 500K from COVID-19.

Some claim that the “real” COVID death is 500K plus any deaths above 3 million because any deaths above 3 million should have not happened.

But this makes no sense, because if any death above 3 million is Coronavirus than anything below is NOT Coronavirus because those people would have died as part of the expected 3 million deaths — except if you think that 2020 deaths should have dropped by 100s for no good reason.

Basically, the metric (“excess deaths” ) used to claim that COVID-19 deaths are higher than reported, is actually a suggestion that deaths are lower than the official count becasus - again - if deaths above the expected death total is Coronavirus, then anything below it is not.

Perhaps excess deaths are in large part due to lockdown of care.

In the first 9 months of 2020, an average $127 billion was spent monthly on healthcare and social assistance in the US.

Same period a year earlier it averaged $132 monthly.

Healthcare was down in a Pandemic!

In the first 9 months of 2020, an average of $41.8 billion was spent monthly on hospitals in the US; a marginal drop from $42.6 billion in the same 9 months a year earlier.

How did this happen during a pandemic?

Needed care went unaddressed!

This also led to excess deaths.