Thread by @jfkirkegaard

Updating EU vaccine data, two things stand out. 1) Good news = supply will quickly pick up now. 2) Far Less good new = no "convergence to the top" among EU MS, raising risk of lack of uniform rollout acceleration in coming weeks with higher supply. 1/11

MT remains by a margin the most efficient EU MS rollout (smallest pop MS likely benefit from lower threshold effects in supply = more vaccs/pop), followed by DK at 8.5%, high-jumper NO at 7.3% and PL at 7.2%. 2/11

At bottom BG = 1.7%, LT at 1.9%, CR at 3.5% and - remarkably for a rich (if frugal) country heading to polls soon - NL at 4.5%. LU (EU's richest member) at 4.6% shows money is not all (even if X-border worker effects play a role). 3/11

Worryingly, no sign of "convergence to the top" among MS (even excl. MT), as best practices (~two months into rollout) appear not to spread among members. Too steady "own pace" among MS does not suggest immediate acceleration potential once supply increases among many MS. 4/11

Weekly scheduled vaccine deliveries through March 2021 from SE/DK/NO shows how supply is scheduled to pick up in coming weeks across the EU, adding impetus to MS's need to accelerate vacc rollouts. 5/11

DK, among EU's top vacc rollout MS, have yet to accelerate rollout to match increased supply in recent weeks (<90% vacc util for several days), which must improve as DK scheduled supply will pick up in coming weeks. DK PM has announced a "large-scale test" on Feb 26 aiming 6/11

to test capacity to vacc >100k/day (~2% of pop), but outcome uncertain. Other MS, to date trailing DK, may struggle more to accelerate rollout to match UK acceleration in 2. month when supply was not a hindrance here. Replication UK/US/ISR rollout speed ma prove a challenge. 7/11

DE gov data highlights how on Feb 21s ~2mn vacc's were unused (~1/3 of total) in Germany, even as scheduled DE (assumed at FR/DE equal levels) supplies will soon pick up. German rollout speed must improve in coming weeks to avoid a major econ/political setback. 8/11

Situation similar in FR (H/T @john_lichfield for showing the right data), where ~2mn vaccs unused on Feb 21 +supply similarly scheduled to rapidly increase. A particular DE/FR issue is to ensure full and rapid util of AZ vaccine, despite unwarranted critique of its efficacy. 9/11

Lastly, vacc supply will further increase again by Apr, as shown here by FR gov data for just scheduled @BioNTech_Group vacc supplies until May 2021. Adding still-likely-to-be-approved vaccs from J&J/Curevac, and EU's vacc supply will be solved in Q2, and no obvious 10/11

valid reason exists for EU not targeting full vacc'ing of 16y+ pop by June/July and a (similar to UK) general reopening of econ by June. It will not be a supply issue, and EU's voting publics are not likely to soon forgive their leaders' failure to achieve this goal. End

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