Share this page!

JPR007 Profile picture
Twitter logo
23 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
WHAT SHOULD LUCID BE WORTH ?

Company management have provided their own financial projections for the business through 2026

The 2026 Income Statement is shown here

At a "Buyer's Pricing" 10x P/E Multiple the business would be worth $17 billion in 2026

1/4
LUCID VALUATION IN 2026

At a "Seller's Pricing" 20x P/E Multiple the business would be worth $34 billion in 2026

2/4
LUCID VALUATION IN 2021

If we use a 15% Equity Discount Rate to convert these 2026 Valuations back to 2021 :

10x P/E Multiple : $17 billion --> $8.44 billion

20x P/E Multiple : $34 billion --> $16.88 billion

Any other proposed valuation can be calculated pro-rata from this
LUCID PRO-FORMA INCOME STATEMENT

This is management's projection from the Investor Presentation

4/4

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with JPR007

JPR007 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jpr007

JPR007 Profile picture
24 Feb
AN ANALYSIS OF SQUARE'S FINANCIAL REPORTS

We have reviewed SQ's 2020 Annual Report and find the current valuation very challenging

Especially given the two significant adjustments that we have to make when analyzing the reported results Image
1. In both 2019 and 2020 there are one-off adjustments below the Operating Profit line that do not represent regular earnings

- in 2019 there was a gain from the sale of an asset group

- in 2020 there was a revaluation of their shares in DoorDash following its IPO Image
2. Secondly, their Bitcoin Revenues and Costs should really be reported on a Net basis otherwise they massively distort the apparent Revenue growth and Cost structure

- SQ earns very little money on those Bitcoin Revenues Image
Read 11 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
23 Feb
BEV COMPETITION HEATS UP FOR LEGACY LUXURY AUTOMAKERS

Lucid makes it very clear who they are going after and how

- MERCEDES

- BMW

- AUDI

1/7
LUCID IS DEFINING POST-LUXURY AS THEIR TARGET

2/7
THIS IS LUCID'S VIEW OF POST-LUXURY

3/7
Read 7 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
22 Feb
A RECENT VIEW ON ENERGY STORAGE

In the renewable electricity future, the UK will need an estimated 65 GWh of intra-day storage and 16 TWh of inter-seasonal storage

Both will have to be supplied at powers in the range 5-8 GW
csrf.ac.uk/2020/11/electr…
The economics of electricity storage "arbitrage" are dominated by the ’round-trip’ efficiency of the energy storage system

Pumped-hydro, Liquid Air and Compressed Air storage can have round-trip efficiencies up to 70%

Green Hydrogen has a round-trip efficiency of around 30-35%
Lithium-ion batteries may offer round-trip efficiencies as high as 95%
Read 7 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
22 Feb
NOW HEAR THIS - SEMICONDUCTORS

In 2021 TSMC expects to invest between $25 billion and $28 billion in capital expenditures compared with $17.2 billion last year

TSMC’s 2021 capex includes investment for construction of its new facility in Arizona
eetimes.com/tsmc-to-raise-…
The company has acquired 1,100 acres of land near the city of Phoenix as part of a long-term plan to build a production site on the same scale as TSMC’s so-called “megafabs” in Taiwan that are the mainstay of the company’s production
TSMC and next-door neighbor UMC said in January that their capacity is fully loaded, and the best they can do is to reallocate production to meet demand from global automakers like Volkswagen and Toyota, just to name a few
Read 13 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
19 Feb
The semiconductor crunch that has battered the auto sector leaves carmakers with a stark choice: pay up, stock up or risk getting stuck on the sidelines as chipmakers focus on more lucrative business elsewhere
reuters.com/article/us-aut…
Car manufacturers including Volkswagen, Ford and General Motors have cut output as the chip market was swept clean by makers of consumer electronics such as smartphones - the chip industry’s preferred customers because they buy more advanced, higher-margin chips
The semiconductor shortage - over $800 worth of silicon is packed into a modern electric vehicle - has exposed the disconnect between an auto industry spoilt by decades of just-in-time deliveries and an electronics industry supply chain it can no longer bend to its will
Read 23 tweets
JPR007 Profile picture
19 Feb
DAIMLER 2020 RESULTS

The headline number says that Daimler made € 4.0 billion in 2020

And some contributors to that were :

- reduction in Selling expenses of -€1.7 billion

- reduction in G&A expenses of -€0.5 billion

- reduction in R&D expenses of -€0.5 billion

1/5
But that was not the true profit

Numerous other adjustments wiped -€3.3 billion from that number, leaving Daimler shareholders with only €0.3 billion for the year

2/5
And Daimler Shareholders Equity was further reduced by another -€0.7 billion

- including payment of a $1.0 billion Dividend

3/5
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @jpr007 has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @jpr007!

Read all threads by @jpr007