Thread by @kevinbonham

So I've been doing this for five minutes and have already found a possible scenario in the first region I looked at (E Met) in which Charles Smith polls 0.4% and retains his seat.

#wavotes

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1364080174761799684

Also if I crash the One Nation vote in E Met it becomes rather hard to stop Australian Christians winning instead of ON or WAP, and in some cases this is at the expense of the Greens with a much higher primary. Unless the micro vote crashes in general.

If I hold all the votes at 2017 levels no micros win anywhere (unless you count SFF). But I am sceptical that will be anything much like the case.

Hmm, the Liberals have preferenced "Liberals for Climate" (aka rubbish party Flux) ahead of Australian Christians in N Met. In some cases this results in the former beating the latter, both off no votes to speak of.

For Agri, I just gave the new micros a little each first (2 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 Nat, 1 ON). I then took 2% *off* Nats and 3% *off* Libs, gave 5% to Labor.

The result was Labor's second seat *disappeared* and was won by the HAP chap mentioned here off 0.22%:

https://twitter.com/DarMurp/status/1361455536424636419

When I then halved the One Nation vote, Labor got their second seat back.

Then when I took more votes off Liberal and National the HAP guy won again because the #SillyGreens preferenced him.

This is just a very primitive attempt but the first 3 scenarios where I made significant changes to the base votes got 3-4 micros each up statewide. (Micros excludes SFF).

That's just an indication of what might happen, impossible to say what actually will.