Also re this, people who argue that #Newspoll voting intentions are wrong because of the same poll's leader ratings don't seem to consider the reverse. Or at least that at the moment the leader ratings may not mean quite what they usually do.
https://twitter.com/mumbletwits/status/1364357713300361217
Bigger problem is that almost every Opposition gets to 50-50 somewhere along the line (indeed Labor already briefly was a bit ahead early last year) and yet most oppositions do not win. Even oppositions that are at some stage 55-45 up only win half the time.
Seven federal governments have lost in the history of polling. All of them bar Labor 1949 were at some stage being really badly smashed in polling. There wasn't that much polling back in 1949.
I can only find one Opposition in the last 50 years that I'd say was never ahead and that's Peacock vs Hawke 1983-4, a shortened term. Even Gough was ahead at times in old Morgans (which were wildly wrong at the election) 1975-7.
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