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AllDayFaders Profile picture
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24 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
$TSLA Funny how the market never changes... since human psychology doesnt. Notice the bagging of all the Put chasers from yesterday and monday.. same MM tactic I always tweet about. Gotta know where the bagholders/crowd are at all time & play the opposite side. Rinse & repeat
$TSLA Assuming no new catalyst, the next leg down will resume once the Put buyers’ premiums get wrecked (from this bounce), and once dumb money starts chasing Calls again at the top. Remember, it’s ALL about bagholders💼. Tmr we’ll find out who got bagged today & plan from there.
That’s the edge in daytrading: capitalizing off the emotions of LT investors.

-We can be nimble & adjust on a day to day basis, flipping long vs short, they cant

-We get to see their Poker hands before making our bets, they cant.

CAPITALIZE on this.

#beartipoftheday
$TSLA As we can see they bagged ALL the 750C buyers, right at the top of the bounce, so their 1st objective for this week is done (keeping TSLA sub 750 until tmr's exp). Now their 2nd objective is bagging the 700P buyers by tmr, or causing a spike towards 700 to cover the puts.

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AllDayFaders Profile picture
18 Feb
That's why i cant stand the "long as u close green, it's fine" mentality. It's the WORST advice ever. Every account has a MINIMUM amount of $ that u must make per trade. It's pure math. Ur avg win doesnt have to be massive, but it MUST be big enough to cover fees & future losses.
So there is no such thing as "green is good" or "a win is a win". That mentality will make u take profits WAY too fast each time u're green, even when there's still room until ur target. Green is only good if that green is big enough relative to ur win rate, & risk/reward (TE)
As long as the stock still has room to move, and ur target is reasonable (not a greedy target), LET the trade play out. Worst that can happen is the stock reverses & u get stopped out. whoo-pde-fucking-doo. Cry me a river. welcome to trading, where shit happens from time to time.
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
17 Feb
U should set ur max loss per trade (1R) based on % of ur account. In short, ask urself "what FIXED amount am i willing to lose back to back b4 my acct becomes untradeable".

Plan 4 the worst, so give urself a 1R that will let u lose at LEAST 20 trades in a row before blowing up. Image
So example if u have a $50K acct, u can only lose $25K to be under PDT.

So $25K / 20 = a 1R of $1250.

That means if u are a cursed fuck & lose every single trade 1 month, it will take 20 back to back losses to put u under PDT. and that's still VERY aggressive in my opinion.
For more conservative traders I recommend making room for at least 30-40 consec losses. Now we know that wont happen unless u're an absolute dumb fuck (or cursed by Odin, Osiris AND Zeus combined), but knowing that u have such a huge margin of error will give u peace of mind.
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
26 Jan
1st figure out how delta hedging works. $GME was nothing new, it was just $TSLA on a smaller scale.

Any stock with

1) weekly options
2) high short%
3) low float

is candidate for a "gamma squeeze", since u now have 3x the buyers instead of 2x like in a regular shortsqueeze
in a regular shortsqueeze the 2 main buyers are the bent shorts & the breakout chasers (double the demand)

In a gamma squeeze, u have 3 main buyers: The shorts, the breakout chasers, AND the option sellers (who are delta hedging). So it's pretty much a shortsqueeze on cocaine
So as long as someone (or a group of ppl like robinhooders) is reckless enough to buy a ton of OTM calls, near friday, on a stock w/ those 3 criteria, u have the recipe for a squeeze. They'll probably attempt another squeeze soon, with a different stock that has those 3 criteria
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
25 Jan
Re-read all my supply/demand (S/D) imbalance & delta hedging threads. Then observe the recent fuckery on stocks like $GME $TSLA etc

When a bunch of reddit traders & robinhooders can make established Hedgefunds eat shit, u tell me what moves price.. S/D imbalances, or valuations?
that's why I hate the usual "where do u think stock XYZ will be in X years/months" questions. i dont fucking know nor care. why? b/c even tho i can tell u all I know about their financials, i CANT predict how many will buy or sell, and that is ultimately what drives price.
So let bulls argue about what stock XYZ is worth & why it should go to Jupiter due to their expert research.

Let bears argue about why stock XYZ should go to 0 b/c of its valuations etc.

ur job is to sit back & WAIT to see who gets bagged.

Drop ur biases, FOLLOW the imbalance.
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
21 Jan
Same answer as usual.. Data. Here are 5 steps to optimize your exits (stops & targets):

1) collect as much data as possible on ur specific niche

2) categorize each group of trades/stocks into specific setups

3) For each setup, find out the ideal (most consistent) entry signal
4) calculate what the average selloff % (bear) or squeeze % (bull) is from the entry signal. that'll give u an idea of where to look for targets

5) calculate how much the stock usually rips against the entry signal when the setup fails. that'll help u with stop loss placement
So in short, you NEED to know your setup's RANGE. How much does the stock move (on average) when the entry triggers? how much does it move against u when the entry backfires? If a stock usually moves $1.00 from the entry signal, then obviously dont have ur target $2.00 higher
Read 6 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
21 Jan
Results of this poll reinforce what Ive been saying for years, & what the data from brokers & the research on daytraders and investors show:

Entries are literally the LEAST predictive of trading success. EXITS (proper targets when right & proper stops when wrong), are EVERYTHING
Nobody blows up b/c they had a bad entry.. a bad entry is a bad entry only in hindsight. U can get in at the perfect fucking price & the stock can still reverse & do fuckboy shit. So ppl dont blow up b/c of bad entries, they blow up bc of bad EXITS (not stopping out)
Also even if u have the best entry in the world, but you dont EXIT at the right time (too greedy), the stock can reverse & put u back in the red.

And if u have the BEST entry, but EXIT too early, u wont make enough to pay for future or past losses, or even fees.
Read 5 tweets

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